(no subject)
One thing that makes me convinced I am good at my job is that I often know what is going to happen and can use it to my and my clients' advantage. For instance, a few months ago, I won Summary Judgment in an ERISA case. This case had appeal written all over it, though. However, I had a plan. Discretionary attorney fees are available under ERISA, based on a 5-factor test. Some of the factors were in our favor, some weren't. I told the client: "we are going to file a motion for attorneys' fees. We won't get all our fees, but we might get some. More importantly, though, what's going to happen is that the losers are going to offer not to appeal if we agree to withdraw our motion for fees."
I file it and next thing I know, opposing counsel is on the phone: "I told the client to appeal and I don't think your motion for fees has any merit...but it was probably a smart thing to do because it really has my client scared, and they are willing to not appeal if you withdraw the motion."
So we withdraw the motion, save the cost of appeal and the risk of reversal and it all happened just like I said it would...because I am very smart and know what I am doing.
Of course, I sure have been wrong about plenty of things I've predicted. I'm not often wrong about my cases. I wish I were as good at figuring out what was going to happen in other aspects of life:
2003 - "The Steelers should not have drafted Troy Polamalu"
The secondary was so bad in 2002. 431 yards passing by Kelly Holcomb...the whole thing makes me shudder. I thought this was a Super Bowl team with a good secondary. The Steelers were looking at Sammy Knight, a free agent Pro Bowl safety. I wanted them to pick up Knight and draft a cornerback. Instead, they passed on Knight and picked up Polamalu. I thought it was the wrong thing to do. Instead of getting a guy who could help right away at safety and depth at cornerback, they picked up a project player at safety and no CB help.
In one sense, I was right - Polamalu was dreadful as a rookie. But so was the rest of the team. It was not Super Bowl caliber. After that, Polamalu went on to become one of the great players of all-time, led the Steelers to two more Super Bowls and is still in his prime. Sammy Knight had a respectable, unspectacular career that's basically over. The CBs I wanted the Steelers to pick are out of football. Bottom line - it's a good thing I wasn't drafting that year.
2000-2001 - "It doesn't matter what firm I work at or where it is because they are all the same and I can just lateral somewhere else in a few years"
How was I supposed to know better? They all have hundreds of lawyers. They all claim to be "full-service." At the time, they all paid $100,000 in medium-sized cities and $125,000 in the big cities. I figured they were all the same. And indeed, big firm life seems to be the same everywhere. What I didn't realize was that there are serious differences between them. There are firms people select for their litigation prowess, and there's my firm, where litigation services corporate clients. There are firms that handle 8-10 figure cases, and there's my firm, which handles 5-7 figure cases. There are firms where you get no substantive experience for 10 years, and then there's my firm, where I tried my first case as a 3rd year associate. It's big differences that I didn't expect.
I also didn't realize how locked in I'd be. I figured I'd have a bunch of cases in federal court, or that state courts had all the same basic rules, and I could pretty much switch comfortably between jurisdictions when I'd been practicing long enough to waive in somewhere else. Instead, I'm stuck in Pennsylvania. I know Pennsylvania law well and nothing else. And nobody wants to hire someone from out of state. I thought I was making a temporary choice that I could change easily. Instead, it seems to be irrevocable.
2008-2009 - "This economic downturn won't be so bad"
The stock market started falling, the subprime mortgages started to come due, and I didn't see what the big deal was. I thought everyone was overreacting and nothing would happen, like Y2K. Millions of lost jobs, a huge and half the stock market gone
It's a good thing I didn't buy too much based on that prediction. Even after it dropped a bunch, I still bought too early, in December, and the Dow fell another 2,000 points. Finally, I bought in in March, at the very bottom...smartest investing move I ever made (barring further market calamity).
1978-present - "If I make myself better, women will like me"
The biggest missed prediction was that if women would find the same things impressive that I find impressive - educational success, career success and physical fitness. For reasons that now escape me, I thought that if I proved I was smart and got a good SAT score and got into a good college, that would impress women...after all, it impresses me to meet smart, well-educated women. Totally wrong. Then I got to college and my next great idea was that if I bulked up and got in great shape, this would impress women, because I was attracted to physically fit women. Totally wrong. Then I thought that if I got a good job and had a successful career making lots of money, this would impress women, since I was impressed by successful women. Totally wrong.
So now, I've put a lot of work into these misdirected efforts - 6 years of college/law school, thousands of hours in the gym, thousands of hours at work - and women are no more interested in me than they've ever been, and all I've got to show for all of it are degrees from two top 10 schools, an annual income in excess of $150,000, and a sculpted, toned body that looks like it was carved from a block of marble. What a waste of time.
I file it and next thing I know, opposing counsel is on the phone: "I told the client to appeal and I don't think your motion for fees has any merit...but it was probably a smart thing to do because it really has my client scared, and they are willing to not appeal if you withdraw the motion."
So we withdraw the motion, save the cost of appeal and the risk of reversal and it all happened just like I said it would...because I am very smart and know what I am doing.
Of course, I sure have been wrong about plenty of things I've predicted. I'm not often wrong about my cases. I wish I were as good at figuring out what was going to happen in other aspects of life:
2003 - "The Steelers should not have drafted Troy Polamalu"
The secondary was so bad in 2002. 431 yards passing by Kelly Holcomb...the whole thing makes me shudder. I thought this was a Super Bowl team with a good secondary. The Steelers were looking at Sammy Knight, a free agent Pro Bowl safety. I wanted them to pick up Knight and draft a cornerback. Instead, they passed on Knight and picked up Polamalu. I thought it was the wrong thing to do. Instead of getting a guy who could help right away at safety and depth at cornerback, they picked up a project player at safety and no CB help.
In one sense, I was right - Polamalu was dreadful as a rookie. But so was the rest of the team. It was not Super Bowl caliber. After that, Polamalu went on to become one of the great players of all-time, led the Steelers to two more Super Bowls and is still in his prime. Sammy Knight had a respectable, unspectacular career that's basically over. The CBs I wanted the Steelers to pick are out of football. Bottom line - it's a good thing I wasn't drafting that year.
2000-2001 - "It doesn't matter what firm I work at or where it is because they are all the same and I can just lateral somewhere else in a few years"
How was I supposed to know better? They all have hundreds of lawyers. They all claim to be "full-service." At the time, they all paid $100,000 in medium-sized cities and $125,000 in the big cities. I figured they were all the same. And indeed, big firm life seems to be the same everywhere. What I didn't realize was that there are serious differences between them. There are firms people select for their litigation prowess, and there's my firm, where litigation services corporate clients. There are firms that handle 8-10 figure cases, and there's my firm, which handles 5-7 figure cases. There are firms where you get no substantive experience for 10 years, and then there's my firm, where I tried my first case as a 3rd year associate. It's big differences that I didn't expect.
I also didn't realize how locked in I'd be. I figured I'd have a bunch of cases in federal court, or that state courts had all the same basic rules, and I could pretty much switch comfortably between jurisdictions when I'd been practicing long enough to waive in somewhere else. Instead, I'm stuck in Pennsylvania. I know Pennsylvania law well and nothing else. And nobody wants to hire someone from out of state. I thought I was making a temporary choice that I could change easily. Instead, it seems to be irrevocable.
2008-2009 - "This economic downturn won't be so bad"
The stock market started falling, the subprime mortgages started to come due, and I didn't see what the big deal was. I thought everyone was overreacting and nothing would happen, like Y2K. Millions of lost jobs, a huge and half the stock market gone
It's a good thing I didn't buy too much based on that prediction. Even after it dropped a bunch, I still bought too early, in December, and the Dow fell another 2,000 points. Finally, I bought in in March, at the very bottom...smartest investing move I ever made (barring further market calamity).
1978-present - "If I make myself better, women will like me"
The biggest missed prediction was that if women would find the same things impressive that I find impressive - educational success, career success and physical fitness. For reasons that now escape me, I thought that if I proved I was smart and got a good SAT score and got into a good college, that would impress women...after all, it impresses me to meet smart, well-educated women. Totally wrong. Then I got to college and my next great idea was that if I bulked up and got in great shape, this would impress women, because I was attracted to physically fit women. Totally wrong. Then I thought that if I got a good job and had a successful career making lots of money, this would impress women, since I was impressed by successful women. Totally wrong.
So now, I've put a lot of work into these misdirected efforts - 6 years of college/law school, thousands of hours in the gym, thousands of hours at work - and women are no more interested in me than they've ever been, and all I've got to show for all of it are degrees from two top 10 schools, an annual income in excess of $150,000, and a sculpted, toned body that looks like it was carved from a block of marble. What a waste of time.