Selection Sunday Thoughts

[dimensionm]

1. I'm getting the impression that there is a whole lot of overconfidence at the top of the brackets this year--as evidenced by the fact that three out of four of this year's number one NCAA tournament seeds (North Carolina, Syracuse, and Kentucky) have just come off losses in their conference tournaments. Raw talent alone has never won a

Comments

[jajy1979]

Based on the way the brackets fell, I expect that Baylor will come out of the South. Kentucky may be the favorite, but I don't think they're as good as they think they are. I expect the easy wins in the first two rounds are more likely to make them cocky rather than confident. Baylor also has the talent to match up, something the majority of the South bracket just does not have. Duke is over-rated here.

Michigan State will have to grit out a win over Missouri but should come out of the West. Couple upsets with New Mexico and Marquette possible, but unlikely. I see a 1/2 match for the elite eight round.

The East is overloaded, with Syracuse being over-rated badly and both Florida State and Vanderbilt being hotter than hell. Ohio State makes key errors and loses games it shouldn't but still dangerous. I think OSU will fall to Florida State and the Seminoles will move on in the round of 16 as Vandy runs out of gas.

The Midwest is the weakest bracket by far. North Carolina shouldn't have much problem defeating anyone prior to Kansas, whom they should be able to beat down the stretch.

North Carolina's losses in the regular season to Florida state brings up an old truism of sports... never play the same team three times, particularly if you beat them the first two. North Carolina should get the better of Florida State this time.

Michigan State will be worn out and their injuries will plague them by the time they hit Baylor. Baylor is every bit as good as any team in the Big 12, and should be able to win that game against a faltering Spartan team.

The match-up with Baylor v. North Carolina favors the Tar Heels though.

Frankly I don't think these brackets are well balanced or even well seeded. I think the upsets aren't in the 5/12 bracket this year, but the 4/13 splits. The Big 10 is the "toughest" conference but none of the three playing as a 4 seed has a good road record, Wisconsin's being the best of the three and I think they'll get taken apart by Vandy in the second round. The other 4 seed is Louisville which is hot and cold and streakier than hell. They drew a depleted (i.e. no Curry) Davidson which knows how to win under pressure. Even if they can win that they get a very strong New Mexico team. Louisville will be going home quickly. Michigan has the best odds, drawing Ohio and then either Temple or the winner of Cal / South Florida. Temple is the hardest but Michigan should be able to win that... just in time to get cut to ribbons by North Carolina.

[dimensionm]

A fair assessment, I'd say, although anything can happen in these tournaments.