Today will be the 30th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. We all know about the quagmire for the USSR that was the main story, and the long epilogue still currently being played out between the US, Pakistan, and the Taliban. But after reading this article, one must give some credit to the Soviets- this was a brilliantly planned and executed prologue:
The Takedown of Kabul: An Effective Coup de Main It's a very long article, and only of interest to those who like military history, but it shows how all the building blocks of a successful coup fit together:
- Placing yourself in positions of influence and trust (easy since they were being heavily relied upon as advisers and colleagues by the Afghans)
- Extensive intelligence and information gathering, made easy by the preceding placements
- Once you've gathered that intelligence, careful planning
- Anticipating, and having a plan for, potential opposition
- Using special forces to take out command and control to confuse, neutralize, and isolate superior numbers
- Recognizing potential key moments and decisively acting upon them (such as the recognition that the entire battalion command staff was gathered together and the spontaneous decision to take them out)
- Minimize the amount of fighting and bloodshed. You don't have to destroy everyone- just make sure they do not oppose you. At several of the targets, simple negotiation caused potential opposition to stand down
- Interservice cooperation, in this case between the Spetnaz (special forces), KGB, and Red Army
- Flexibility and adaptability- the attack time was changed several times and many of the units sent out were mixed ad hoc formations
- Judicious dissemination of "need to know" information, and control of communications before and during the operation. Each unit commander knew his tactical objectives, but not the details of the overall plan. Not even the Ambassador knew what was going on. Did he really need to?
- Having a replacement government ready to go and international recognition lined up before you put the plan into operation