Economics
Haven't done any predictions for a while so about time I tested my alleged knowledge of this by trying to get things right before then event rather than after.
Right then. We have a quarterly growth figure due out soon (we've just finished Q2, I don't know when the data is produced). I would not be suprised to see that it registers a small positive figure and heralds the end of the technical recession. This has two implications. Firstly, it means interest rates may well end up moving north earlier than people think. My current guess is October this year for what it is worth. Secondly, if you are hoping that it will herald the end of unemployment growth then prepare for disappointment. The economy needs annual growth of about 2.5% to start eating into unemployment and this Q2 figure may be positive but it will still be tiny.
Everyone else, though, is also coming out of recession bit by bit. This will bring inflation back as people start to be able to afford commodities again. Oil is already back to $70 per barrel, a level which wouild have caused a national calamity only about 4 years ago and it will be going higher.
Thoughts (any of you that actually read this stuff, that is)?
Right then. We have a quarterly growth figure due out soon (we've just finished Q2, I don't know when the data is produced). I would not be suprised to see that it registers a small positive figure and heralds the end of the technical recession. This has two implications. Firstly, it means interest rates may well end up moving north earlier than people think. My current guess is October this year for what it is worth. Secondly, if you are hoping that it will herald the end of unemployment growth then prepare for disappointment. The economy needs annual growth of about 2.5% to start eating into unemployment and this Q2 figure may be positive but it will still be tiny.
Everyone else, though, is also coming out of recession bit by bit. This will bring inflation back as people start to be able to afford commodities again. Oil is already back to $70 per barrel, a level which wouild have caused a national calamity only about 4 years ago and it will be going higher.
Thoughts (any of you that actually read this stuff, that is)?