BIDEN MY TIME
Well, that’s apparently that. Barring any weird disasters (and I’m including COVID-19 and deranged assassins here), it looks like it’s going to be Joe Biden vs D. Trump in November.
So a few thoughts on that.
1. There’s a lot of ink being written on where it went wrong for Sanders - some of it sensible, some of it otherwise. For me, the most sensible analysis is rooted in the point that Sanders was campaigning against the Democratic Party Establishment as much as he was against Trump. Turns out that wasn’t such a hot idea.
2. As I’ve said elsewhere, I wasn’t especially thrilled with either Biden or Sanders as a Demo nominee. And if those had been the only two choices in my state primary, I think I ultimately would have gone with Biden for the sole reason that (as I’ve mentioned before) I do think he stands a better chance to beat Trump than Sanders would have for the same reason he’s the presumptive nominee - he’s better at building the broader, diverse base of support the DP is going to need.
3. Speaking of which, in a nice plot twist, Sanders has not only endorsed Biden, but has joined forces with him to form working groups (consisting of staff from both of their campaigns) to shape the Democratic Party’s approach to six issues: climate change, criminal justice, the economy, education, health care, and immigration. Personally I find this encouraging - not just that Sanders is willing to work with Biden (albeit to have as much influence on his platform as possible) but that Biden is willing to listen to him.
But then that’s always been Biden’s strength - as I said, he’s always been a coalition guy, and the DP is a coalition party. He knows that if he’s going to lead the Demos to victory, he needs to get everyone involved, and that includes the progressives who supported Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Obviously the result isn't going to the Socialist Utopia that Sanders fans want, but it will probably beat the alternative.
4. On the downside, Biden’s dealmaking skills have traditionally reached across the aisle - which in normal times would be okay, but these are not normal times. The GOP is firmly in Trump Cult Batshit Fascism territory, and I don't expect that to change if Trump loses. Even if the Demos are able to take back Congress, I fully expect the GOP to do with Biden exactly what they did with Obama (and would have done with Sanders) - stonewall, obfuscate, weep and wail about socialist tyranny and generally do everything possible to trip him up and ensure Biden doesn’t sign a single gawdamn bill that comes anywhere close to universal healthcare or whatever.
Consequently, any attempts by Biden to bridge that divide and win GOP votes essentially means making deals with a party that has embraced white supremacy, xenophobia, fascism and gaslighting as a way of life - which is not only a bad look and morally suspect even by political standards, but also raises the question of what his legislative proposals will look like after the GOP committee reps get through with them, and whether the results would be worse than doing nothing at all.
5. That’s assuming Biden defeats Trump, which is the other big question. As I’ve said before, I would have voted for Marianne Williamson over Trump, so Biden already has my vote. But I am expecting Trump to win, despite the fact that as far back as September, Biden has mostly faired better in the polls in a hypothetical Biden vs Trump race, sometimes by as much 11 points on average. But lately it’s been a single-digit advantage, and Biden has yet to see a post-Sanders bounce in the polls.
Of course, it’s a long way to November, and we have a new wild card in the form of COVID-19. Assuming the coronavirus itself doesn’t take out Biden or Trump, the havoc it’s wreaking on the economy and unemployment are eroding the one advantage any incumbent POTUS has: how well the economy is doing. Trump’s handling of the crisis arguably isn't helping, though whether that will hurt him will depend on how many people (particularly Republicans) die from COVID-19 and how many of the surviving cult members either blame Trump or continue to believe his schtick that all this is somehow the fault of the Obama Deep State and the Fake News Conspiracy.
Then there’s the effect of COVID-19 on Election Day itself - if enough states are still in lockdown, and if the Trump admin succeeds in hobbling or even shuttering the USPS (which could impact mail-in votes), voter turnout will be impacted significantly, and certainly Trump thinks that will work in the GOP’s favor.
And even if COVID-19 is brought under control in time, there’s still the Russiabots.
So really, 2020 is looking like the most wildly unpredictable POTUS election in ages, possibly ever - at least for now. By the time we get to September, we may have a better idea. The one thing we know for sure (or should) is that we can’t take a Biden victory for granted, no matter how badly Trump screws up. So I’m going into this on the assumption that Trump can (and will) win. I will thoroughly enjoy being proven wrong.
Last man standing,
This is dF
This entry was originally posted at https://defrog.dreamwidth.org/1639655.html. Please comment there using OpenID.
So a few thoughts on that.
1. There’s a lot of ink being written on where it went wrong for Sanders - some of it sensible, some of it otherwise. For me, the most sensible analysis is rooted in the point that Sanders was campaigning against the Democratic Party Establishment as much as he was against Trump. Turns out that wasn’t such a hot idea.
2. As I’ve said elsewhere, I wasn’t especially thrilled with either Biden or Sanders as a Demo nominee. And if those had been the only two choices in my state primary, I think I ultimately would have gone with Biden for the sole reason that (as I’ve mentioned before) I do think he stands a better chance to beat Trump than Sanders would have for the same reason he’s the presumptive nominee - he’s better at building the broader, diverse base of support the DP is going to need.
3. Speaking of which, in a nice plot twist, Sanders has not only endorsed Biden, but has joined forces with him to form working groups (consisting of staff from both of their campaigns) to shape the Democratic Party’s approach to six issues: climate change, criminal justice, the economy, education, health care, and immigration. Personally I find this encouraging - not just that Sanders is willing to work with Biden (albeit to have as much influence on his platform as possible) but that Biden is willing to listen to him.
But then that’s always been Biden’s strength - as I said, he’s always been a coalition guy, and the DP is a coalition party. He knows that if he’s going to lead the Demos to victory, he needs to get everyone involved, and that includes the progressives who supported Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Obviously the result isn't going to the Socialist Utopia that Sanders fans want, but it will probably beat the alternative.
4. On the downside, Biden’s dealmaking skills have traditionally reached across the aisle - which in normal times would be okay, but these are not normal times. The GOP is firmly in Trump Cult Batshit Fascism territory, and I don't expect that to change if Trump loses. Even if the Demos are able to take back Congress, I fully expect the GOP to do with Biden exactly what they did with Obama (and would have done with Sanders) - stonewall, obfuscate, weep and wail about socialist tyranny and generally do everything possible to trip him up and ensure Biden doesn’t sign a single gawdamn bill that comes anywhere close to universal healthcare or whatever.
Consequently, any attempts by Biden to bridge that divide and win GOP votes essentially means making deals with a party that has embraced white supremacy, xenophobia, fascism and gaslighting as a way of life - which is not only a bad look and morally suspect even by political standards, but also raises the question of what his legislative proposals will look like after the GOP committee reps get through with them, and whether the results would be worse than doing nothing at all.
5. That’s assuming Biden defeats Trump, which is the other big question. As I’ve said before, I would have voted for Marianne Williamson over Trump, so Biden already has my vote. But I am expecting Trump to win, despite the fact that as far back as September, Biden has mostly faired better in the polls in a hypothetical Biden vs Trump race, sometimes by as much 11 points on average. But lately it’s been a single-digit advantage, and Biden has yet to see a post-Sanders bounce in the polls.
Of course, it’s a long way to November, and we have a new wild card in the form of COVID-19. Assuming the coronavirus itself doesn’t take out Biden or Trump, the havoc it’s wreaking on the economy and unemployment are eroding the one advantage any incumbent POTUS has: how well the economy is doing. Trump’s handling of the crisis arguably isn't helping, though whether that will hurt him will depend on how many people (particularly Republicans) die from COVID-19 and how many of the surviving cult members either blame Trump or continue to believe his schtick that all this is somehow the fault of the Obama Deep State and the Fake News Conspiracy.
Then there’s the effect of COVID-19 on Election Day itself - if enough states are still in lockdown, and if the Trump admin succeeds in hobbling or even shuttering the USPS (which could impact mail-in votes), voter turnout will be impacted significantly, and certainly Trump thinks that will work in the GOP’s favor.
And even if COVID-19 is brought under control in time, there’s still the Russiabots.
So really, 2020 is looking like the most wildly unpredictable POTUS election in ages, possibly ever - at least for now. By the time we get to September, we may have a better idea. The one thing we know for sure (or should) is that we can’t take a Biden victory for granted, no matter how badly Trump screws up. So I’m going into this on the assumption that Trump can (and will) win. I will thoroughly enjoy being proven wrong.
Last man standing,
This is dF
This entry was originally posted at https://defrog.dreamwidth.org/1639655.html. Please comment there using OpenID.