I am in favor of complicated motives! It's trying to figure out how much (if anything) can't be explained by pragmatism that makes figuring Dumbledore out so hard.
Hm, the guilt idea and all of the "second chances" as Dumbledore projecting his own issues made me wonder about a difference between the kinds of second chances he gives.
Dumbledore seems to like Hagrid and Remus. They are both loyal to Dumbledore, are limited in the scope of their actions, and mostly don't harm people intentionally. (The Marauders generally passed off what they did as jokes, and apparently had no ambitions beyond having fun in the moment.) Even if they had let the habits Dumbledore knew about get out of hand, the damage they could cause would be limited to immediate bystanders. They both seem--by Dumbledore's standards--harmless and well-meaning. These are pleasant reflections, if he sees them as aspects of himself.
And as soon as Dumbledore finds out that Remus isn't quite as loyal or harmless as he thought, the very next day his loyal lieutenant wrecks Remus's job prospects. (It probably doesn't help that Remus could claim to be influenced by his friends, not when the consequences are serious. Dumbledore doesn't want to see that part of his reflection either.)
Sirius did set up the nearly-fatal "prank." If that was more than Dumbledore could pass off to himself as a joke gone wrong, that might have been the moment Dumbledore stopped seeing Sirius as a relatively harmless prankster and instead as a more intentional perpetrator. A dangerous reflection he didn't like. Or maybe that came later, after Sirius got someone he loved killed by trusting a dangerous friend. Dumbledore tried to lock this reflection away where he wouldn't have to see it.
Severus had ambitions of some kind, doesn't seem to have started fights at school but intended to cause harm when he fought back, and also got someone he loved killed by trusting bad friends. Very unpleasant reflections! But he was also terribly useful. He got his second chance, and Dumbledore never lost the opportunity to let him know he probably didn't deserve it.
Tom was obviously not harmless or well-meaning. He made it clear that he intended to hurt people, and didn't try to pass off that or stealing their stuff as a joke or something he only did to people who "deserved" it. And he also obviously had ambitions beyond having fun in school. So Dumbledore gave him the "letting your magic run away with you" excuse (because Tom might be useful?) and kept quiet, but never liked the kid. Apart from Myrtle's death, Tom might actually have caused less fear and harm at school as the Marauders... but he meant to do it, and so this reflection didn't let Dumbledore see a nice, sanitized, harmless version of himself.
So you could have a spectrum from "gives second chances to apparently jolly, harmless types he likes because they make his flaws look minor and kind of cute" (Hagrid) to "gives second chances to useful people he probably loathes because they are more accurate reflections of him as someone who intentionally causes harm on a grand scale" (Tom).
Hm, Voldemort might be willing to risk a follower or two running into trouble if they tried to use Dumbledore's alleged softness as a get out of jail free card as long as it persuaded them all to press harder on the offense. I could see that.
Yes, but Voldemort only has one Peter. Who knows a lot, but you really have to pry the information out of him! Surely having a backup would be handy?
Though we don't know he didn't. Maybe Benjy Fenwick faked his death when he thought someone was getting close. (And probably gave Peter a good idea about hey, if they only find bits of me, they won't be looking for a whole body...) And of course there's Caradoc, who vanished after the war ended.
The Marauders generally passed off what they did as jokes, and apparently had no ambitions beyond having fun in the moment.
I think that is one of Albus's parameters when deciding who deserves a real chance and who is just the pawn in his game. Ever since Dumbledore became Headmaster, we see this negative push back towards ambition- advanced texts available to Tom are no longer in the library in Harry's time, departments are cut down... Heck, the HBP is the epitome of this- Albus has to re-employ Toastmaster leader to mine him for information he might need to defeat his ex-student.
Remus not being loyal to Albus might look like he is slowly rolling back to savage werewolf habits- especially he spends a decade away from Albus good influence! Surely some social backlash will get him on a good road! And if Dumbledore gets benefits from it... well, that is plus good!
I agree with your interpretation of Sirius-Albus relationship. It would work well even after PoA- Albus possibly constantly guilts himself over his relationship with Gellert, and it helps him "staying on the right patch". So Albus keeping Sirius locked up in OotP could be his way of rehabilitating him(?).
Again Albus perceives guilt as a good tool for redhibition (after all, it works for him!), so his outright toxic behaviour towards poor Severus could be his way of trying to reform him into a normal citizen :/
IMHO Tom was a potentially useful and uncomfortable reminder of what Albus could have become- both Tom and Albus' father leashed out onto muggles when they threatened what was important to them. I think when Tom killed Myrtle in Albus' categories, he jumped from useful and redeemable to useful and to get rid off. Heck, it's quite possible that even if Tom was a normal kid, Albus' opinions would have boxed Tom into certain choices.
The thing that bothers me about Voldemort's operations is the scale. One of the techniques spies, terrorists and freedom fighters is the rule of 3- you group up to 3 people in the cell, and they might know about up to 2 more people from the other cell but no more. This way, if you catch 1 spy you get info about a 3 more people. If you want to get more info you need to hunt down other members of the cell and usually this isn't easy task. Yet in the books during Voldie war 2 it seems everybody knows Severus is spy (or it's Harry's Pov's influence) We don't know how Voldemort organised his spy operations during his first run, but you don't keep your spies and soldiers in the same room- spies are always trained to gather info, so in case the enemy catches them, they are always the last people you want knowing anything about your troops. So us not knowing about any spies other than Peter and Severus could be a good thing or a bad thing.
Conclusion to this comment- Wizarding world is in dire need of therapists
Barty Junior's role may also have originally been as a spy (and possible future assassin), given who his father was. But this wasn't ever confirmed.
You really have to wonder what kind of sloppy organization Voldemort was running that Karkaroff knew the identities of two Death Eater spies. Okay, he maybe stood next to Severus during the (presumably infrequent) meetings of the full circle, and could have recognized him if he ran into him elsewhere. Or if Severus ever served as a DE Healer and treated Karkaroff. But Rookwood?
Did Karkaroff's cell report to Rookwood for some reason, maybe to carry out assignments Rookwood devised based on his spying? (Blackmail this guy to do X, kill that guy...) This doesn't seem like a great plan, and Voldemort also seems like he would prefer to get the information and give the assignments rather than delegating, so it doesn't seem likely.
Maybe it has to do with whatever position Karkaroff held? We don't even know whether he was British-raised, an immigrant, or only went to Britain to hang out with Voldemort after being recruited on the Continent, so that's no help. Maybe he was some kind of diplomat who mostly hung out with the International Wizarding Cooperation employees but met Rookwood at Ministry events. If he had been in proximity to Rookwood while masked and hooded and was an observant person, maybe he could have recognized him that way. (Height, stance, body language, choice of cologne...)
ETA: But still, the question about other spies in the Order is something we'll probably never know. Maybe Voldemort wanted a backup spy in the Order and just failed to manage it. Or he had one who successfully went undetected but also maybe didn't uncover much that was useful. Could be anything!
Dumbledore could try to crush others' ambition because he doesn't want the competition, though. And he'd be clever enough to cloak it as guilt-driven and an attempt to prevent future Dark Lords which had unfortunate side effects even if he didn't actually feel guilty and actually wanted to have a Dark Lord around to look good opposing. I haven't been able to definitively rule out this "remorseless and totally calculating" scenario.
Or he could also both feel guilty and want to crush competition so he'll always be the best (possibly without ever fully admitting the latter to himself). Which impulse would predominate at any given time, I wonder?
Hm, the guilt idea and all of the "second chances" as Dumbledore projecting his own issues made me wonder about a difference between the kinds of second chances he gives.
Dumbledore seems to like Hagrid and Remus. They are both loyal to Dumbledore, are limited in the scope of their actions, and mostly don't harm people intentionally. (The Marauders generally passed off what they did as jokes, and apparently had no ambitions beyond having fun in the moment.) Even if they had let the habits Dumbledore knew about get out of hand, the damage they could cause would be limited to immediate bystanders. They both seem--by Dumbledore's standards--harmless and well-meaning. These are pleasant reflections, if he sees them as aspects of himself.
And as soon as Dumbledore finds out that Remus isn't quite as loyal or harmless as he thought, the very next day his loyal lieutenant wrecks Remus's job prospects. (It probably doesn't help that Remus could claim to be influenced by his friends, not when the consequences are serious. Dumbledore doesn't want to see that part of his reflection either.)
Sirius did set up the nearly-fatal "prank." If that was more than Dumbledore could pass off to himself as a joke gone wrong, that might have been the moment Dumbledore stopped seeing Sirius as a relatively harmless prankster and instead as a more intentional perpetrator. A dangerous reflection he didn't like. Or maybe that came later, after Sirius got someone he loved killed by trusting a dangerous friend. Dumbledore tried to lock this reflection away where he wouldn't have to see it.
Severus had ambitions of some kind, doesn't seem to have started fights at school but intended to cause harm when he fought back, and also got someone he loved killed by trusting bad friends. Very unpleasant reflections! But he was also terribly useful. He got his second chance, and Dumbledore never lost the opportunity to let him know he probably didn't deserve it.
Tom was obviously not harmless or well-meaning. He made it clear that he intended to hurt people, and didn't try to pass off that or stealing their stuff as a joke or something he only did to people who "deserved" it. And he also obviously had ambitions beyond having fun in school. So Dumbledore gave him the "letting your magic run away with you" excuse (because Tom might be useful?) and kept quiet, but never liked the kid. Apart from Myrtle's death, Tom might actually have caused less fear and harm at school as the Marauders... but he meant to do it, and so this reflection didn't let Dumbledore see a nice, sanitized, harmless version of himself.
So you could have a spectrum from "gives second chances to apparently jolly, harmless types he likes because they make his flaws look minor and kind of cute" (Hagrid) to "gives second chances to useful people he probably loathes because they are more accurate reflections of him as someone who intentionally causes harm on a grand scale" (Tom).
Hm, Voldemort might be willing to risk a follower or two running into trouble if they tried to use Dumbledore's alleged softness as a get out of jail free card as long as it persuaded them all to press harder on the offense. I could see that.
Yes, but Voldemort only has one Peter. Who knows a lot, but you really have to pry the information out of him! Surely having a backup would be handy?
Though we don't know he didn't. Maybe Benjy Fenwick faked his death when he thought someone was getting close. (And probably gave Peter a good idea about hey, if they only find bits of me, they won't be looking for a whole body...) And of course there's Caradoc, who vanished after the war ended.
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I think that is one of Albus's parameters when deciding who deserves a real chance and who is just the pawn in his game. Ever since Dumbledore became Headmaster, we see this negative push back towards ambition- advanced texts available to Tom are no longer in the library in Harry's time, departments are cut down... Heck, the HBP is the epitome of this- Albus has to re-employ Toastmaster leader to mine him for information he might need to defeat his ex-student.
Remus not being loyal to Albus might look like he is slowly rolling back to savage werewolf habits- especially he spends a decade away from Albus good influence! Surely some social backlash will get him on a good road! And if Dumbledore gets benefits from it... well, that is plus good!
I agree with your interpretation of Sirius-Albus relationship. It would work well even after PoA- Albus possibly constantly guilts himself over his relationship with Gellert, and it helps him "staying on the right patch". So Albus keeping Sirius locked up in OotP could be his way of rehabilitating him(?).
Again Albus perceives guilt as a good tool for redhibition (after all, it works for him!), so his outright toxic behaviour towards poor Severus could be his way of trying to reform him into a normal citizen :/
IMHO Tom was a potentially useful and uncomfortable reminder of what Albus could have become- both Tom and Albus' father leashed out onto muggles when they threatened what was important to them. I think when Tom killed Myrtle in Albus' categories, he jumped from useful and redeemable to useful and to get rid off.
Heck, it's quite possible that even if Tom was a normal kid, Albus' opinions would have boxed Tom into certain choices.
The thing that bothers me about Voldemort's operations is the scale. One of the techniques spies, terrorists and freedom fighters is the rule of 3- you group up to 3 people in the cell, and they might know about up to 2 more people from the other cell but no more. This way, if you catch 1 spy you get info about a 3 more people. If you want to get more info you need to hunt down other members of the cell and usually this isn't easy task. Yet in the books during Voldie war 2 it seems everybody knows Severus is spy (or it's Harry's Pov's influence)
We don't know how Voldemort organised his spy operations during his first run, but you don't keep your spies and soldiers in the same room- spies are always trained to gather info, so in case the enemy catches them, they are always the last people you want knowing anything about your troops.
So us not knowing about any spies other than Peter and Severus could be a good thing or a bad thing.
Conclusion to this comment- Wizarding world is in dire need of therapists
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You really have to wonder what kind of sloppy organization Voldemort was running that Karkaroff knew the identities of two Death Eater spies. Okay, he maybe stood next to Severus during the (presumably infrequent) meetings of the full circle, and could have recognized him if he ran into him elsewhere. Or if Severus ever served as a DE Healer and treated Karkaroff. But Rookwood?
Did Karkaroff's cell report to Rookwood for some reason, maybe to carry out assignments Rookwood devised based on his spying? (Blackmail this guy to do X, kill that guy...) This doesn't seem like a great plan, and Voldemort also seems like he would prefer to get the information and give the assignments rather than delegating, so it doesn't seem likely.
Maybe it has to do with whatever position Karkaroff held? We don't even know whether he was British-raised, an immigrant, or only went to Britain to hang out with Voldemort after being recruited on the Continent, so that's no help. Maybe he was some kind of diplomat who mostly hung out with the International Wizarding Cooperation employees but met Rookwood at Ministry events. If he had been in proximity to Rookwood while masked and hooded and was an observant person, maybe he could have recognized him that way. (Height, stance, body language, choice of cologne...)
ETA: But still, the question about other spies in the Order is something we'll probably never know. Maybe Voldemort wanted a backup spy in the Order and just failed to manage it. Or he had one who successfully went undetected but also maybe didn't uncover much that was useful. Could be anything!
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Or he could also both feel guilty and want to crush competition so he'll always be the best (possibly without ever fully admitting the latter to himself). Which impulse would predominate at any given time, I wonder?
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