Filling some gaps about the first war (part 6)
Once Peter brought Tom the Potters' Secret (and received his Mark) Tom just needed to finish up some errands until he was ready to attack them: Give the cup to Bellatrix (instruct her to watch it well for him), give the diary to Lucius (tell him that when given the signal he should arrange for it to be brought to Hogwarts by a student, and the result would be mayhem that would destabilize Dumbledore's position), get the sword (or some other artifact) from Snape. And perhaps wait for the auspicious night of All Hallows Eve.
In DH we see Tom going alone to the Potters' home. Did he trust Peter that much? And wouldn't he have wanted to rub the Potters' noses in their friend's perfidy? At the very least, maybe Peter was in Tom's pocket, as a rat, there to be tortured if his information proved false. I wonder if Tom wanted to avoid Peter's company as much as possible.
There are some open questions about the Fidelius Charm as used by the Potters. In all other examples we saw in OOTP and DH the Fidelius Charm was cast on a location - a house and its immediate environs. Yet when Filius explains the charm in POA it seems to apply to the people, while the location is still visible. It is possible that the Potters preferred the latter version as a substitute for the cloak. Though it only makes sense if outsiders not only can't see the subjects of the Charm but can't remember they exist (or at least can't remember they are the owners and occupants of a certain house). When James ran to the door - did he think some random thief or mischievous teenager was breaking into a house that appeared empty? Hmm, if the Potters really did believe they were reasonably safe as long as *Remus* didn't know where they were, perhaps they really did look at the Fidelius as an upgrade of the Invisibility Cloak. (In which case they may have ventured out of the house during the final week). This kind of usage would have required someone else to be the Secret Keeper or the subjects would have become incommunicado for good.
A commonly held view is that the Fidelius Charm lifted when Peter told the secret to Voldemort (and that if indeed Albus was not part of the Secret, this was how he knew of the Potters' betrayal). I disagree with this view. My understanding is that for the purpose of the Fidelius Charm there are 3 classes of beings: 1) The Secret Keeper(s): They hold the Secret in their souls, they can pass the information on, whether by word, in writing or by bringing the people in question into the protected place. 2) The Secret Knowers: Those that were told the Secret by the Secret Keeper. (And in DH - also possibly people who were already inside the protected location at the time the Fidelius was cast.) They can remember the Secret and discuss it with other Secret Knowers or Secret Keeper(s) but not with anyone else. 3) Outsiders - can't know the Secret or think of the information, unless related by a Secret Keeper, upon which they are transformed into Secret Knowers.
According to this, the Secret Keeper has the discretion to tell the Secret to individuals of hir choice, thus transforming them into Secret Knowers, while leaving others as Outsiders. Peter could have used this power legitimately to include in the Secret people whose company the Potters wanted (say, Bathilda Bagshot, if they wanted her over again, or an Order member they wanted to talk to) or illegitimately their enemies, or just anyone they didn't want.
Aside from mechanism, if the Fidelius really lifted when Peter talked to Voldemort then it may have been up for several days before the attack. Wouldn't the Order have noticed? Accusing Dumbledore of knowingly leaving the Potters open to attack with no protection whatsoever (while placing an alarm that alerted him, but not them, of Tom's presence) is a bit much even foe Albus. Instead, I propose the Fidelius lifted when its subject ceased to exist. If it was cast on the location, it lifted when the house exploded. If it was on the people, then it lifted when Lily died (assuming the design considered that a permanently invisible toddler is inherently in danger out of helplessness).
Somehow Albus knew very soon of the attack - soon enough that Hagrid arrived before any curious or helpful neighbor and before any emergency services. (Consider he had to meet with Hagrid first.) This is consistent either with the Fidelius lifting at the time of the attack (whether when Lily died or when the house exploded) or with there being some other kind of alarm system - perhaps of Voldemort's crossing of a line circumscribing the protected area or alerting of the casting of the Killing Curse within the protected area. Now, there would be no way for an Outsider to the Secret to cast such an alarm spell while the Fidelius was intact - they wouldn't know what to cast it on. So if there was a magical alarm, it was created before the Fidelius was cast, or Albus received the Secret (by note or from Peter-Polyjuiced-into-Sirius), or, the very creepy scenario where Albus knew the Fidelius was 'broken' and he went and cast an alarm yet did not warn the Potters.
Thinking of alarms, why didn't Moody provide them with a Foe Glass? Was the rest of the Order even aware that the Potters were at a greater risk than others? Or perhaps any attempt to use magical warning devices (Foe Glass, Sneakoscope and similar) was sabotaged by Peter to avoid his detection. (Why is this Sneakoscope going off all the time? Must be broken.) I'm wondering if the Potters' cat was a part-kneazle from Mrs Figg's breeding program, and if it was how Peter dealt with it.
Meanwhile, though Albus should have realized the spy might have been one of three people (later limited to one of two) and despite his powers of Legilimency, he failed to discover the spy. Obviously, he didn't engage in the most intrusive form of Legilimency, the one Voldemort used on Bertha Jorkins, or even what Severus did during the Occlumency lessons. Or what Albus himself did to Morfin and Hokey. I think he wanted to be confident enough that the person whose mind he violated was the guilty person - not so much out of respect but because he did not want to be known (even to himself) as someone who would force himself into the mind of a follower (recall Minerva's speech about how Albus was 'too noble' to use Dark powers). I think Albus expected to be able to identify his main suspect by minimal Legilimency, like he does with Harry when he wants to be sure Harry wasn't the one who had placed his name in the Goblet of Fire. This method reveals the victim's emotions and how sincere they are being. And what happened when Albus tried this method on the Marauders? Every one of them (even James, if Albus tested him as well) was hiding something from him! He was at an impasse, as far as Legilimency went, unless he was willing to risk (being caught) using the more intrusive forms on people who would eventually turn out to have been not guilty.
As far as Tom was concerned, things were working as planned until he reached Harry's room. The plan must have been to make Lily his very sensible offer or just stun her, then kill the baby while completing the sixth and last Horcrux. Then modify Lily's memory to be consistent with Sirius, rather than Peter, being the traitor (to allow the latter to continue working for him), and deliver her to Severus. It is hard to understand why he insisted on asking her repeatedly to move voluntarily when he had many easy options that did not require her willing cooperation. Back in the days before DH there were some elaborate theories about why Tom didn't just stun Lily. Obviously that must have meant he needed her conscious there and then - so what did he want her to do? The answers we came up with had to do with Tom forcing Lily to do something related to the making or hiding of the sixth Horcrux. It was disappointing to learn Rowling didn't have any real justification in mind, and a relief to read Terri's recent proposal that what we see is Tom behaving in irrational ways as a result of luck (to Lily and Harry) derived from James' sacrificial death. Obviously this luck must have also caused Tom to forget all about the Horcrux he intended to make when he took aim at Harry.
Tom's spell rebounded - from some mysterious force-field? Or a shiny surface, as Terri proposed? And hit him instead. Since it was an AK that had been aimed at a person and hit one (albeit not the intended victim), it caused a rip in the soul of the caster. It also caused the soul of the victim to depart. With the victim and the caster being the same person, and that person being one who already had 5 completed Horcruxes, the departure did not reach as far as the next plane of existence. But part of the remainder of Tom's soul continued a disembodied existence while another entered Harry's body via his forehead, leaving a scar. We know Tom's body vanished because we don't see his shade in the Priori Incantatem in GOF (it should have appeared between Bertha Jorkins and Lily). OTOH we know his wand, which he was holding when he died, was left behind (and taken by Peter). What about his clothes, and the contents of his pockets? In my understanding they stayed behind too, in contrast with what happens in the Potterverse with Animagus transformation and werewolf transformation.
According to Hagrid, he was the first to arrive, and Sirius arrived shortly after him on his motorbike. I doubt Hagrid would have noticed a rat. If indeed Peter arrived in Tom's pocket then he was at the scene from the start. But even if not, the moment he noticed weird behavior of his Dark Mark he knew where to go to look for an explanation. When Peter decided it was safe (was that before Hagrid's arrival or after his departure with Harry?) he reverted to human form, pocketed Voldemort's wand and Apparated away. Hmm, he may have even had the chance to overhear the conversation between Sirius and Hagrid.
With Voldemort disembodied but not finally gone, Peter had no interest in promoting the DE agenda any further. Harry was in no further danger from him now that the one who wanted Harry dead wasn't around. What mattered to Peter was his own safety and some kind of bargaining chip in case Voldemort were to return (for which he took Voldemort's wand). From Godric's Hollow Peter decided to carry out the final framing of Sirius pretty much as planned - wait till he works himself into a rage while seeking Peter, confront him, accuse him of the betrayal, exchange some curses, Apparate away after leaving a finger and a set of robes behind. He must have planned some kind of explosion ahead of time, to justify the finger as the 'largest bit found', but still possible that some spell of Sirius' contributed to the damage. Or perhaps, as Jodel proposed, knowing Sirius' dueling style, Peter provoked Sirius into causing the explosion, so that a plausible spell was found on Sirius' wand. And from there - to the whereabouts of the Burrow, to be 'found' by one of the kids.
Meanwhile, at Hogwarts: Albus was very quick to send Hagrid to the ruin of the Potters' home, already instructed to deliver Harry to 4PD on the following night. (Yes, there certainly were those 24 hours, because Minerva had been waiting in Little Whinging since morning, after having run into celebrating wizards.) What information was he working with? There was something he noticed himself - either the Fidelius Charm expiring or the tripping of some other alarm. The meaning of this signal depended on how the Charm (or alarm) was cast. I'll go with the most informative option, which is that the Fidelius was cast on the Potter family itself, and was designed to expire if both adults were dead. Additionally, Severus may have reported that his Dark Mark was fading (or undergoing some other major change indicating a fast reduction in Tom's power). Both these signals were then interpreted by Albus in light of Sybil's prophecy. What Albus could have reasonably concluded was the following:
- The Secret Keeper (presumably Sirius) had betrayed the Potters
- Voldemort came to the Potters' home
- James and Lily are dead, probably by Voldemort's wand
- There likely was some encounter that ended with Harry being marked as Tom's equal and with Tom being significantly weakened, though probably still alive (in wait for the opportunity when 'either must die at the hand of the other').
That was sufficient information to send someone to rescue Harry, but why did Albus already decide to leave him with the Dursleys? Did he simply jump to the conclusion that Lily conferred magical protection on Harry from knowing she died and Voldemort was weakened? If so, he had a lot of trust in Tom! He had to be confident that Tom stuck to his promise to Severus enough to offer Lily a chance to save herself, yet for some reason decided to kill her anyway. Wasn't it just as logical that he'd kill her without offering an escape? I doubt Albus had that combination of intuition and naivete. I am more inclined to suspect he had other motivations for Harry's placement initially, though the potential for added protection could have been added after the fact, when he learned more about what had transpired in Godric's Hollow.
Other motivations we can rule out at this moment are any related to Harry's having become Tom's Horcrux, as there was no way for Albus to know this before gathering additional information (unless he used time travel, at which case all bets on what he knew when are off - heck he could have used the combination of time travel and invisibility to witness the whole chain of events unfold, and then attempt to summon the Resurrection Stone in hope of becoming Master of Death). Nor do I think it was a particularly prudent move to ensure Harry's safety, as the suspected traitor must have known where Lily's sister lived (and may have shared the information with other DEs, some of whom were his relatives).
What it looks like, more than anything else, is a power-grab. Establishing Harry's custody before anyone could object. If anyone still wanted to kill him they could try, but what they couldn't do was stand as legitimate guardians to bring him up. Harry might die, but if he were to live he would live under the parameters that Albus specified. And that meant outside the wizarding world, with people Albus must have known had low opinion of magic and wizards - only to be contrasted completely with what Harry would encounter at 11 (if he lived that long). The things Hagrid and Minerva pointed out as bugs were features. Harry's exposure to the magical world and its politics would happen entirely on Albus' terms.
By arranging to meet with Hagrid a day later Albus arranged himself a day to investigate the unusual events at Godric's Hollow. What did this investigation consist of?
I used to think Albus' primary source of information were the memories of Harry himself. This looks a bit strange at first glance, because when Hagrid shows up with Harry at 4PD he speaks to Albus as if this were their first encounter since Hagrid went to Godric's Hollow. Wasn't he with Harry the entire time? Well, we do know that sometime between being assigned his task on the night of the 31st and the following morning he talked to Minerva. If he traveled to Godric's Hollow by Portkey there was no reason for him to go anywhere before leaving, so perhaps he picked Harry up and brought him to the Hogwarts hospital wing for a check-up and immediate care. While Harry was with Poppy Hagrid had a chance to chat with Minerva and inform her where she was likely to find Albus and receive clarifications about the new situation. And if Hagrid was not with Harry the entire time, there indeed was a chance for Albus to invade Harry's mind and see the infant's view of the events. He would have seen James playing with Harry, Lily taking him upstairs, heard the door being broken open, James calling out to Lily, heard Lily's scrambling, the exchange between Tom and Lily, the green light, another green light that very surprisingly changed its course and hit Tom, the disintegration of Tom's body, the pain caused by the soul-bit landing in Harry's head. Albus would have concluded that Lily's knowing and willing death caused the last AK to go wrong, but Tom was not completely gone because part of him resided in Harry.
Does this add up? Why was Minerva looking for Albus in the first place? She must have seen him leave to somewhere - maybe from the Halloween feast, or perhaps she saw Severus call him away. And when she wanted to find out what the urgent development was that needed his attention - he was not in his office. She may have even seen Severus, and he didn't know where Albus was either. But Hagrid could tell her he would be meeting the headmaster in Little Whinging the following night, so she went to bed and left for Surrey the following morning. (Why so soon? Didn't she have classes to teach? Who canceled classes that day? Well, by morning the wizards were celebrating so perhaps the rumors brought about both the cancellation of classes and Minerva's early departure.) It does seem like Albus was absent for more than a quick visit at the hospital wing.
But there is a bigger problem: The conclusions Albus could have arrived at from Harry's memories alone do not justify his years of inaction. Even if he could understand from the memory where the soul-bit went, why would he not think Tom's soul was already split, and part of it tucked safely away in something, before he attacked Harry? After all, by attacking Harry Tom confirmed that he took the threat described in the prophecy seriously. And Severus must have reported to him that his other Master had been bragging about overcoming death at least as far back as 1979 (when Regulus made the connection to Kreacher's report of his adventure). Albus knew Tom did not have 2 of the Hallows. So the fact that Tom's soul did not depart completely when he was hit by his own Killing Curse should have alerted him that not all was normal with Tom's soul. Yet he did not attempt to seek a Horcrux until 1995.
I think the solution to both problems is that when Minerva was looking for him Albus had indeed left Hogwarts. And his first destination was the Potters' home, to search it before any Ministry team did. Yes, he needed evidence. But let's not forget it was a chance to get hold of the Resurrection Stone, assuming Tom had it on his person. Wouldn't that be grand, to become Master of Death upon Tom's defeat?
Alas, he did not find the Stone. Nor did he find Tom's body, or his wand. He did find some evidence for the chain of events: Broken down door, James' wandless body at the entrance. James' wand, on the couch. The pile of rubble from Lily's improvised barricade. Lily's body, in front of Harry's crib, with no wand. And near her, Tom's robes, and a familiar object - the very item he gave Severus a few days previously for his other master when Severus was supposed to produce a historical artifact of Godric Gryffindor. Examination revealed that the object had undergone some manipulation with Dark Magic. Albus' reconstruction may have been as following: Back in 1979 Tom may have been hoping he could ensure his immortality using the Resurrection Stone alone (what an amateur!). But following the prophecy he must have intensified his research into immortality, and somehow, despite Albus' efforts along the years, Tom must have discovered the concept of Horcruxes. And his plan was to prepare his shiny new object into a proto-Horcrux, kill James and make the Horcrux with that death, then kill Harry. But Tom got the Horcrux spell wrong (see above - a total amateur!) so the Horcrux was not completed as planned. Then Lily got in the way of his first attempt to kill Harry, and this caused the second attack to rebound. While Tom did not have a completed Horcrux his soul was altered sufficiently to keep it lingering, and one piece of it must have landed into something, securing the rest of the soul into some kind of bodiless but earthly existence. All he needs to do is to find where that bit of soul went. He may have searched the rubble, may have hopped back to his office and brought over the silvery instruments - to no avail. Until at 4PD Hagrid handed him the scarred toddler. That was when he realized where the missing soul-piece was. So he cast his protective spell on the dwelling of Lily's blood-kin and returned to Hogwarts to recruit Severus into helping him protect Harry - until the moment Albus decided it was time to stop protecting him, so that Tom's soul-bit could be destroyed.
In DH we see Tom going alone to the Potters' home. Did he trust Peter that much? And wouldn't he have wanted to rub the Potters' noses in their friend's perfidy? At the very least, maybe Peter was in Tom's pocket, as a rat, there to be tortured if his information proved false. I wonder if Tom wanted to avoid Peter's company as much as possible.
There are some open questions about the Fidelius Charm as used by the Potters. In all other examples we saw in OOTP and DH the Fidelius Charm was cast on a location - a house and its immediate environs. Yet when Filius explains the charm in POA it seems to apply to the people, while the location is still visible. It is possible that the Potters preferred the latter version as a substitute for the cloak. Though it only makes sense if outsiders not only can't see the subjects of the Charm but can't remember they exist (or at least can't remember they are the owners and occupants of a certain house). When James ran to the door - did he think some random thief or mischievous teenager was breaking into a house that appeared empty? Hmm, if the Potters really did believe they were reasonably safe as long as *Remus* didn't know where they were, perhaps they really did look at the Fidelius as an upgrade of the Invisibility Cloak. (In which case they may have ventured out of the house during the final week). This kind of usage would have required someone else to be the Secret Keeper or the subjects would have become incommunicado for good.
A commonly held view is that the Fidelius Charm lifted when Peter told the secret to Voldemort (and that if indeed Albus was not part of the Secret, this was how he knew of the Potters' betrayal). I disagree with this view. My understanding is that for the purpose of the Fidelius Charm there are 3 classes of beings: 1) The Secret Keeper(s): They hold the Secret in their souls, they can pass the information on, whether by word, in writing or by bringing the people in question into the protected place. 2) The Secret Knowers: Those that were told the Secret by the Secret Keeper. (And in DH - also possibly people who were already inside the protected location at the time the Fidelius was cast.) They can remember the Secret and discuss it with other Secret Knowers or Secret Keeper(s) but not with anyone else. 3) Outsiders - can't know the Secret or think of the information, unless related by a Secret Keeper, upon which they are transformed into Secret Knowers.
According to this, the Secret Keeper has the discretion to tell the Secret to individuals of hir choice, thus transforming them into Secret Knowers, while leaving others as Outsiders. Peter could have used this power legitimately to include in the Secret people whose company the Potters wanted (say, Bathilda Bagshot, if they wanted her over again, or an Order member they wanted to talk to) or illegitimately their enemies, or just anyone they didn't want.
Aside from mechanism, if the Fidelius really lifted when Peter talked to Voldemort then it may have been up for several days before the attack. Wouldn't the Order have noticed? Accusing Dumbledore of knowingly leaving the Potters open to attack with no protection whatsoever (while placing an alarm that alerted him, but not them, of Tom's presence) is a bit much even foe Albus. Instead, I propose the Fidelius lifted when its subject ceased to exist. If it was cast on the location, it lifted when the house exploded. If it was on the people, then it lifted when Lily died (assuming the design considered that a permanently invisible toddler is inherently in danger out of helplessness).
Somehow Albus knew very soon of the attack - soon enough that Hagrid arrived before any curious or helpful neighbor and before any emergency services. (Consider he had to meet with Hagrid first.) This is consistent either with the Fidelius lifting at the time of the attack (whether when Lily died or when the house exploded) or with there being some other kind of alarm system - perhaps of Voldemort's crossing of a line circumscribing the protected area or alerting of the casting of the Killing Curse within the protected area. Now, there would be no way for an Outsider to the Secret to cast such an alarm spell while the Fidelius was intact - they wouldn't know what to cast it on. So if there was a magical alarm, it was created before the Fidelius was cast, or Albus received the Secret (by note or from Peter-Polyjuiced-into-Sirius), or, the very creepy scenario where Albus knew the Fidelius was 'broken' and he went and cast an alarm yet did not warn the Potters.
Thinking of alarms, why didn't Moody provide them with a Foe Glass? Was the rest of the Order even aware that the Potters were at a greater risk than others? Or perhaps any attempt to use magical warning devices (Foe Glass, Sneakoscope and similar) was sabotaged by Peter to avoid his detection. (Why is this Sneakoscope going off all the time? Must be broken.) I'm wondering if the Potters' cat was a part-kneazle from Mrs Figg's breeding program, and if it was how Peter dealt with it.
Meanwhile, though Albus should have realized the spy might have been one of three people (later limited to one of two) and despite his powers of Legilimency, he failed to discover the spy. Obviously, he didn't engage in the most intrusive form of Legilimency, the one Voldemort used on Bertha Jorkins, or even what Severus did during the Occlumency lessons. Or what Albus himself did to Morfin and Hokey. I think he wanted to be confident enough that the person whose mind he violated was the guilty person - not so much out of respect but because he did not want to be known (even to himself) as someone who would force himself into the mind of a follower (recall Minerva's speech about how Albus was 'too noble' to use Dark powers). I think Albus expected to be able to identify his main suspect by minimal Legilimency, like he does with Harry when he wants to be sure Harry wasn't the one who had placed his name in the Goblet of Fire. This method reveals the victim's emotions and how sincere they are being. And what happened when Albus tried this method on the Marauders? Every one of them (even James, if Albus tested him as well) was hiding something from him! He was at an impasse, as far as Legilimency went, unless he was willing to risk (being caught) using the more intrusive forms on people who would eventually turn out to have been not guilty.
As far as Tom was concerned, things were working as planned until he reached Harry's room. The plan must have been to make Lily his very sensible offer or just stun her, then kill the baby while completing the sixth and last Horcrux. Then modify Lily's memory to be consistent with Sirius, rather than Peter, being the traitor (to allow the latter to continue working for him), and deliver her to Severus. It is hard to understand why he insisted on asking her repeatedly to move voluntarily when he had many easy options that did not require her willing cooperation. Back in the days before DH there were some elaborate theories about why Tom didn't just stun Lily. Obviously that must have meant he needed her conscious there and then - so what did he want her to do? The answers we came up with had to do with Tom forcing Lily to do something related to the making or hiding of the sixth Horcrux. It was disappointing to learn Rowling didn't have any real justification in mind, and a relief to read Terri's recent proposal that what we see is Tom behaving in irrational ways as a result of luck (to Lily and Harry) derived from James' sacrificial death. Obviously this luck must have also caused Tom to forget all about the Horcrux he intended to make when he took aim at Harry.
Tom's spell rebounded - from some mysterious force-field? Or a shiny surface, as Terri proposed? And hit him instead. Since it was an AK that had been aimed at a person and hit one (albeit not the intended victim), it caused a rip in the soul of the caster. It also caused the soul of the victim to depart. With the victim and the caster being the same person, and that person being one who already had 5 completed Horcruxes, the departure did not reach as far as the next plane of existence. But part of the remainder of Tom's soul continued a disembodied existence while another entered Harry's body via his forehead, leaving a scar. We know Tom's body vanished because we don't see his shade in the Priori Incantatem in GOF (it should have appeared between Bertha Jorkins and Lily). OTOH we know his wand, which he was holding when he died, was left behind (and taken by Peter). What about his clothes, and the contents of his pockets? In my understanding they stayed behind too, in contrast with what happens in the Potterverse with Animagus transformation and werewolf transformation.
According to Hagrid, he was the first to arrive, and Sirius arrived shortly after him on his motorbike. I doubt Hagrid would have noticed a rat. If indeed Peter arrived in Tom's pocket then he was at the scene from the start. But even if not, the moment he noticed weird behavior of his Dark Mark he knew where to go to look for an explanation. When Peter decided it was safe (was that before Hagrid's arrival or after his departure with Harry?) he reverted to human form, pocketed Voldemort's wand and Apparated away. Hmm, he may have even had the chance to overhear the conversation between Sirius and Hagrid.
With Voldemort disembodied but not finally gone, Peter had no interest in promoting the DE agenda any further. Harry was in no further danger from him now that the one who wanted Harry dead wasn't around. What mattered to Peter was his own safety and some kind of bargaining chip in case Voldemort were to return (for which he took Voldemort's wand). From Godric's Hollow Peter decided to carry out the final framing of Sirius pretty much as planned - wait till he works himself into a rage while seeking Peter, confront him, accuse him of the betrayal, exchange some curses, Apparate away after leaving a finger and a set of robes behind. He must have planned some kind of explosion ahead of time, to justify the finger as the 'largest bit found', but still possible that some spell of Sirius' contributed to the damage. Or perhaps, as Jodel proposed, knowing Sirius' dueling style, Peter provoked Sirius into causing the explosion, so that a plausible spell was found on Sirius' wand. And from there - to the whereabouts of the Burrow, to be 'found' by one of the kids.
Meanwhile, at Hogwarts: Albus was very quick to send Hagrid to the ruin of the Potters' home, already instructed to deliver Harry to 4PD on the following night. (Yes, there certainly were those 24 hours, because Minerva had been waiting in Little Whinging since morning, after having run into celebrating wizards.) What information was he working with? There was something he noticed himself - either the Fidelius Charm expiring or the tripping of some other alarm. The meaning of this signal depended on how the Charm (or alarm) was cast. I'll go with the most informative option, which is that the Fidelius was cast on the Potter family itself, and was designed to expire if both adults were dead. Additionally, Severus may have reported that his Dark Mark was fading (or undergoing some other major change indicating a fast reduction in Tom's power). Both these signals were then interpreted by Albus in light of Sybil's prophecy. What Albus could have reasonably concluded was the following:
- The Secret Keeper (presumably Sirius) had betrayed the Potters
- Voldemort came to the Potters' home
- James and Lily are dead, probably by Voldemort's wand
- There likely was some encounter that ended with Harry being marked as Tom's equal and with Tom being significantly weakened, though probably still alive (in wait for the opportunity when 'either must die at the hand of the other').
That was sufficient information to send someone to rescue Harry, but why did Albus already decide to leave him with the Dursleys? Did he simply jump to the conclusion that Lily conferred magical protection on Harry from knowing she died and Voldemort was weakened? If so, he had a lot of trust in Tom! He had to be confident that Tom stuck to his promise to Severus enough to offer Lily a chance to save herself, yet for some reason decided to kill her anyway. Wasn't it just as logical that he'd kill her without offering an escape? I doubt Albus had that combination of intuition and naivete. I am more inclined to suspect he had other motivations for Harry's placement initially, though the potential for added protection could have been added after the fact, when he learned more about what had transpired in Godric's Hollow.
Other motivations we can rule out at this moment are any related to Harry's having become Tom's Horcrux, as there was no way for Albus to know this before gathering additional information (unless he used time travel, at which case all bets on what he knew when are off - heck he could have used the combination of time travel and invisibility to witness the whole chain of events unfold, and then attempt to summon the Resurrection Stone in hope of becoming Master of Death). Nor do I think it was a particularly prudent move to ensure Harry's safety, as the suspected traitor must have known where Lily's sister lived (and may have shared the information with other DEs, some of whom were his relatives).
What it looks like, more than anything else, is a power-grab. Establishing Harry's custody before anyone could object. If anyone still wanted to kill him they could try, but what they couldn't do was stand as legitimate guardians to bring him up. Harry might die, but if he were to live he would live under the parameters that Albus specified. And that meant outside the wizarding world, with people Albus must have known had low opinion of magic and wizards - only to be contrasted completely with what Harry would encounter at 11 (if he lived that long). The things Hagrid and Minerva pointed out as bugs were features. Harry's exposure to the magical world and its politics would happen entirely on Albus' terms.
By arranging to meet with Hagrid a day later Albus arranged himself a day to investigate the unusual events at Godric's Hollow. What did this investigation consist of?
I used to think Albus' primary source of information were the memories of Harry himself. This looks a bit strange at first glance, because when Hagrid shows up with Harry at 4PD he speaks to Albus as if this were their first encounter since Hagrid went to Godric's Hollow. Wasn't he with Harry the entire time? Well, we do know that sometime between being assigned his task on the night of the 31st and the following morning he talked to Minerva. If he traveled to Godric's Hollow by Portkey there was no reason for him to go anywhere before leaving, so perhaps he picked Harry up and brought him to the Hogwarts hospital wing for a check-up and immediate care. While Harry was with Poppy Hagrid had a chance to chat with Minerva and inform her where she was likely to find Albus and receive clarifications about the new situation. And if Hagrid was not with Harry the entire time, there indeed was a chance for Albus to invade Harry's mind and see the infant's view of the events. He would have seen James playing with Harry, Lily taking him upstairs, heard the door being broken open, James calling out to Lily, heard Lily's scrambling, the exchange between Tom and Lily, the green light, another green light that very surprisingly changed its course and hit Tom, the disintegration of Tom's body, the pain caused by the soul-bit landing in Harry's head. Albus would have concluded that Lily's knowing and willing death caused the last AK to go wrong, but Tom was not completely gone because part of him resided in Harry.
Does this add up? Why was Minerva looking for Albus in the first place? She must have seen him leave to somewhere - maybe from the Halloween feast, or perhaps she saw Severus call him away. And when she wanted to find out what the urgent development was that needed his attention - he was not in his office. She may have even seen Severus, and he didn't know where Albus was either. But Hagrid could tell her he would be meeting the headmaster in Little Whinging the following night, so she went to bed and left for Surrey the following morning. (Why so soon? Didn't she have classes to teach? Who canceled classes that day? Well, by morning the wizards were celebrating so perhaps the rumors brought about both the cancellation of classes and Minerva's early departure.) It does seem like Albus was absent for more than a quick visit at the hospital wing.
But there is a bigger problem: The conclusions Albus could have arrived at from Harry's memories alone do not justify his years of inaction. Even if he could understand from the memory where the soul-bit went, why would he not think Tom's soul was already split, and part of it tucked safely away in something, before he attacked Harry? After all, by attacking Harry Tom confirmed that he took the threat described in the prophecy seriously. And Severus must have reported to him that his other Master had been bragging about overcoming death at least as far back as 1979 (when Regulus made the connection to Kreacher's report of his adventure). Albus knew Tom did not have 2 of the Hallows. So the fact that Tom's soul did not depart completely when he was hit by his own Killing Curse should have alerted him that not all was normal with Tom's soul. Yet he did not attempt to seek a Horcrux until 1995.
I think the solution to both problems is that when Minerva was looking for him Albus had indeed left Hogwarts. And his first destination was the Potters' home, to search it before any Ministry team did. Yes, he needed evidence. But let's not forget it was a chance to get hold of the Resurrection Stone, assuming Tom had it on his person. Wouldn't that be grand, to become Master of Death upon Tom's defeat?
Alas, he did not find the Stone. Nor did he find Tom's body, or his wand. He did find some evidence for the chain of events: Broken down door, James' wandless body at the entrance. James' wand, on the couch. The pile of rubble from Lily's improvised barricade. Lily's body, in front of Harry's crib, with no wand. And near her, Tom's robes, and a familiar object - the very item he gave Severus a few days previously for his other master when Severus was supposed to produce a historical artifact of Godric Gryffindor. Examination revealed that the object had undergone some manipulation with Dark Magic. Albus' reconstruction may have been as following: Back in 1979 Tom may have been hoping he could ensure his immortality using the Resurrection Stone alone (what an amateur!). But following the prophecy he must have intensified his research into immortality, and somehow, despite Albus' efforts along the years, Tom must have discovered the concept of Horcruxes. And his plan was to prepare his shiny new object into a proto-Horcrux, kill James and make the Horcrux with that death, then kill Harry. But Tom got the Horcrux spell wrong (see above - a total amateur!) so the Horcrux was not completed as planned. Then Lily got in the way of his first attempt to kill Harry, and this caused the second attack to rebound. While Tom did not have a completed Horcrux his soul was altered sufficiently to keep it lingering, and one piece of it must have landed into something, securing the rest of the soul into some kind of bodiless but earthly existence. All he needs to do is to find where that bit of soul went. He may have searched the rubble, may have hopped back to his office and brought over the silvery instruments - to no avail. Until at 4PD Hagrid handed him the scarred toddler. That was when he realized where the missing soul-piece was. So he cast his protective spell on the dwelling of Lily's blood-kin and returned to Hogwarts to recruit Severus into helping him protect Harry - until the moment Albus decided it was time to stop protecting him, so that Tom's soul-bit could be destroyed.