Exit polls
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32633099
Cripes and gosh. The 2015 UK election coverage has just started and it’s incredible already - by law there, you can’t report on speculated results until the polls are closed, so the first we hear of the forecast is when the exit polls are released at 10pm BST.
The exit polls are completely different from everything all polls indicated in the run-up to the election. It was expected to be virtually a tie between the Tories and Labour at 280ish each with nobody ably to form a majority even with a two-party coalition. But instead, the Tories are predicted to get an unbelievable 316 seats - this puts them 10 short of a majority, and still able to form the coalition with the Liberal Democrats again (even though they’re expected to be ousted in a record-breaking fashion, going down to only ten seats). Meanwhile, Labour will be hammered down even further than they are already to 239 - a disaster for them.
The other big thing is the unprecedented SNP prediction - from having only a few seats at the last election, they’re now predicted to control Scotland. And I don’t mean get a majority of seats - I mean they are predicted to get every seat in mainland Scotland, with just the Orkney and Shetland islands to the north remaining in support of the Liberal Democrats. This would involve swings of up to 50% from the Labour incumbents.
The exit polls show such extremes that there are questions about whether they can possibly be right - either they’ll be the most inaccurate in UK history, or this will be the biggest election upset in UK history.