(no subject)
For the second consecutive year, I'm posting my NFL power ratings. They are only "mine" in the sense that I created the spreadsheet and entered the data. The concept and formulas come from the 198? edition of The Hidden Game of Football. It's the best football book I've ever read. The newer editions are supposed to be even better.
The basic idea is to take the average margin of victory ((Points For - Points Allowed)/Games Played)) and adjust it for schedule strength. This is done by averaging the opponents Average Margin of Victory ad adding it to the original average margin of victory. Of course once you've adjusted the numbers, they are all different, so you run it again and again and again until the values stop changing. I do 13 iterations because that's what will fit on my spreadsheet.
By halfway through the season, there is usually enough data that the values stop moving after about six iterations. Until week four, the sample size is too small to be meaningful.
Once the values are adjusted for schedule strength, I add 100 to make the numbers easier to use.
To use the ratings, add 2.5 (or whatever you want to use for home field advantage) to the home team's value, then find the difference. So for this week's Pittsburgh-Detroit game:
Pittsburgh 103.35-(92.37+2.5)=8.49. Steelers are predicted to win by almost nine points.
Yes, carrying it out to two digits is ridiculous, but you could say that about the whole exercise.
For week four (last week) the predictions were correct 13 out of 14 games. That's not normal. That was straight up, the predictions against the spread were...terrible.
1 New Orleans Saints 119.68
2 Indianapolis Colts 116.08
3 San Francisco 49ers 111.4
4 New York Jets 110.57
5 Jacksonville Jaguars 108.65
6 Arizona Cardinals 108.31
7 Minnesota Vikings 108.05
8 Denver Broncos 107.42n
9 Baltimore Ravens 106.64
10 New England Patriots 106.42
11 Chicago Bears 106.35
12 Philadelphia Eagles 104.19
13 Pittsburgh Steelers 103.35
14 Miami Dolphins 102.58
15 Cincinnati Bengals 102.3
16 Green Bay Packers 101.77
17 Houston Texans 101.75
18 Seattle Seahawks 101.23
19 San Diego Chargers 99.91
20 Atlanta Falcons 98.74
21 New York Giants 98.69
22 Tennessee Titans 97.76
23 Dallas Cowboys 97.09
24 Buffalo Bills 93.28
25 Detroit Lions 92.37
26 Cleveland Browns 88.92
27 Oakland Raiders 88.12
28 Kansas City Chiefs 87.52
29 Washington Redskins 86.25
30 Carolina Panthers 83.51
31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 80.7
32 St. Louis Rams 79.11
The basic idea is to take the average margin of victory ((Points For - Points Allowed)/Games Played)) and adjust it for schedule strength. This is done by averaging the opponents Average Margin of Victory ad adding it to the original average margin of victory. Of course once you've adjusted the numbers, they are all different, so you run it again and again and again until the values stop changing. I do 13 iterations because that's what will fit on my spreadsheet.
By halfway through the season, there is usually enough data that the values stop moving after about six iterations. Until week four, the sample size is too small to be meaningful.
Once the values are adjusted for schedule strength, I add 100 to make the numbers easier to use.
To use the ratings, add 2.5 (or whatever you want to use for home field advantage) to the home team's value, then find the difference. So for this week's Pittsburgh-Detroit game:
Pittsburgh 103.35-(92.37+2.5)=8.49. Steelers are predicted to win by almost nine points.
Yes, carrying it out to two digits is ridiculous, but you could say that about the whole exercise.
For week four (last week) the predictions were correct 13 out of 14 games. That's not normal. That was straight up, the predictions against the spread were...terrible.
1 New Orleans Saints 119.68
2 Indianapolis Colts 116.08
3 San Francisco 49ers 111.4
4 New York Jets 110.57
5 Jacksonville Jaguars 108.65
6 Arizona Cardinals 108.31
7 Minnesota Vikings 108.05
8 Denver Broncos 107.42n
9 Baltimore Ravens 106.64
10 New England Patriots 106.42
11 Chicago Bears 106.35
12 Philadelphia Eagles 104.19
13 Pittsburgh Steelers 103.35
14 Miami Dolphins 102.58
15 Cincinnati Bengals 102.3
16 Green Bay Packers 101.77
17 Houston Texans 101.75
18 Seattle Seahawks 101.23
19 San Diego Chargers 99.91
20 Atlanta Falcons 98.74
21 New York Giants 98.69
22 Tennessee Titans 97.76
23 Dallas Cowboys 97.09
24 Buffalo Bills 93.28
25 Detroit Lions 92.37
26 Cleveland Browns 88.92
27 Oakland Raiders 88.12
28 Kansas City Chiefs 87.52
29 Washington Redskins 86.25
30 Carolina Panthers 83.51
31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 80.7
32 St. Louis Rams 79.11