(no subject)
Wow! A whole month between posts. I compose posts in my head all the time, but they tend to stay there. Only rarely do they make it to the keyboard. Like now.
Hurricane K-Dizzle, my mother-in-law, made land fall yesterday around midday. She moves out of the area on Friday. The boys love her to death, and she drives Suchari insane. For some reason she insists on going on a series of half-day outings with her mom. I don't mind because I get to stay home alone, but Suchari always comes home with splitting headaches. "I think it must be the weather," she says. Yup. That's it.
I'm working hard at not being a passive agressive bastard while she's here. I think I'm batting .500, but I'm sure I'll get the official scorer's report on Friday.
Saw Kellie play in the all-star game a couple of weeks ago. She played well, but is clearly still hurting. I had what I think was the longest conversation I've ever had with Brad. It was interesting. Anohter milestone, and I'm another step further away from Limestone soccer.
Anybody interested in NFL power ratings? I've been calculating them all season. I didn't come up with the formula, it's from The Hidden Game of Football. It's an awesome book. I have the 1987 version, but I think it has been updated at least twice.
Basically, you take the points scored (PF, on the standings in the newspaper) and subtract the points allowed (PA) and divide by the number of games played. Then you "correct" for schedule strength by adding the average rating of all the teams each team played. Then because all the numbers have changed, you go through as many iterations as it takes before your ratings stay fairly constant. My excel spreadsheet only has room to go through 13 iterations, but by that time, the numbers are changing .01 or less each time. Close enough for me. I knew I took all those stats classes for a reason. It's not as tricky as it sounds and takes less than half an hour a week to update the ratings.
To use the ratings, I usually add three points to the home team (the rule of thumb is that home field advantage is worth about three points), and then find the difference.
I AM YOUR DOCUMENT TITLE REPLACE ME
Team W L TPct PFPA PWR13
New York Giants 10 1 0 0.91 329 199 9.87
Tennessee Titans 10 1 0 0.91 257 165 8.59
Baltimore Ravens 7 4 0 0.64 258 187 7.34
Pittsburgh Steelers 8 3 0 0.73 236 160 7.22
New York Jets 8 3 0 0.73 323 234 5.83
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8 3 0 0.73 257 180 5.76
Green Bay Packers 5 6 0 0.45 303 260 4.97
Carolina Panthers 8 3 0 0.73 250 200 4.33
Atlanta Falcons 7 4 0 0.64 276 226 3.93
Indianapolis Colts 7 4 0 0.64 247 244 3.02
New Orleans Saints 6 5 0 0.55 317 278 3.02
Philadelphia Eagles 5 5 1 0.45 271 229 2.95
Arizona Cardinals 7 4 0 0.64 318 265 2.91
San Diego Chargers 4 7 0 0.36 274 252 2.82
Minnesota Vikings 6 5 0 0.55 253 246 2.45
Chicago Bears 6 5 0 0.55 267 234 2.43
New England Patriots 7 4 0 0.64 267 222 1.97
Dallas Cowboys 7 4 0 0.64 265 251 -0.46
Buffalo Bills 6 5 0 0.55 273 249 -0.66
Miami Dolphins 6 5 0 0.55 237 245 -0.73
Washington Redskins 7 4 0 0.64 201 199 -1.01
Jacksonville Jaguars 4 7 0 0.36 224 240 -1.52
Cleveland Browns 4 7 0 0.36 207 237 -1.6
Houston Texans 4 7 0 0.36 252 293 -3.05
Denver Broncos 6 5 0 0.55 258 302 -4.95
Seattle Seahawks 2 9 0 0.18 207 277 -7.01
San Francisco 49ers 3 8 0 0.27 252 310 -7.13
Oakland Raiders 3 8 0 0.27 159 245 -7.24
Cincinnati Bengals 1 9 1 0.09 148 276 -7.77
Kansas City Chiefs 1 10 0 0.09 196 327 -9.77
Detroit Lions 0 11 0 0 193 346 -12.66
St. Louis Rams 2 9 0 0.18 147 344 -17.02
Hurricane K-Dizzle, my mother-in-law, made land fall yesterday around midday. She moves out of the area on Friday. The boys love her to death, and she drives Suchari insane. For some reason she insists on going on a series of half-day outings with her mom. I don't mind because I get to stay home alone, but Suchari always comes home with splitting headaches. "I think it must be the weather," she says. Yup. That's it.
I'm working hard at not being a passive agressive bastard while she's here. I think I'm batting .500, but I'm sure I'll get the official scorer's report on Friday.
Saw Kellie play in the all-star game a couple of weeks ago. She played well, but is clearly still hurting. I had what I think was the longest conversation I've ever had with Brad. It was interesting. Anohter milestone, and I'm another step further away from Limestone soccer.
Anybody interested in NFL power ratings? I've been calculating them all season. I didn't come up with the formula, it's from The Hidden Game of Football. It's an awesome book. I have the 1987 version, but I think it has been updated at least twice.
Basically, you take the points scored (PF, on the standings in the newspaper) and subtract the points allowed (PA) and divide by the number of games played. Then you "correct" for schedule strength by adding the average rating of all the teams each team played. Then because all the numbers have changed, you go through as many iterations as it takes before your ratings stay fairly constant. My excel spreadsheet only has room to go through 13 iterations, but by that time, the numbers are changing .01 or less each time. Close enough for me. I knew I took all those stats classes for a reason. It's not as tricky as it sounds and takes less than half an hour a week to update the ratings.
To use the ratings, I usually add three points to the home team (the rule of thumb is that home field advantage is worth about three points), and then find the difference.
I AM YOUR DOCUMENT TITLE REPLACE ME
Team W L TPct PFPA PWR13
New York Giants 10 1 0 0.91 329 199 9.87
Tennessee Titans 10 1 0 0.91 257 165 8.59
Baltimore Ravens 7 4 0 0.64 258 187 7.34
Pittsburgh Steelers 8 3 0 0.73 236 160 7.22
New York Jets 8 3 0 0.73 323 234 5.83
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8 3 0 0.73 257 180 5.76
Green Bay Packers 5 6 0 0.45 303 260 4.97
Carolina Panthers 8 3 0 0.73 250 200 4.33
Atlanta Falcons 7 4 0 0.64 276 226 3.93
Indianapolis Colts 7 4 0 0.64 247 244 3.02
New Orleans Saints 6 5 0 0.55 317 278 3.02
Philadelphia Eagles 5 5 1 0.45 271 229 2.95
Arizona Cardinals 7 4 0 0.64 318 265 2.91
San Diego Chargers 4 7 0 0.36 274 252 2.82
Minnesota Vikings 6 5 0 0.55 253 246 2.45
Chicago Bears 6 5 0 0.55 267 234 2.43
New England Patriots 7 4 0 0.64 267 222 1.97
Dallas Cowboys 7 4 0 0.64 265 251 -0.46
Buffalo Bills 6 5 0 0.55 273 249 -0.66
Miami Dolphins 6 5 0 0.55 237 245 -0.73
Washington Redskins 7 4 0 0.64 201 199 -1.01
Jacksonville Jaguars 4 7 0 0.36 224 240 -1.52
Cleveland Browns 4 7 0 0.36 207 237 -1.6
Houston Texans 4 7 0 0.36 252 293 -3.05
Denver Broncos 6 5 0 0.55 258 302 -4.95
Seattle Seahawks 2 9 0 0.18 207 277 -7.01
San Francisco 49ers 3 8 0 0.27 252 310 -7.13
Oakland Raiders 3 8 0 0.27 159 245 -7.24
Cincinnati Bengals 1 9 1 0.09 148 276 -7.77
Kansas City Chiefs 1 10 0 0.09 196 327 -9.77
Detroit Lions 0 11 0 0 193 346 -12.66
St. Louis Rams 2 9 0 0.18 147 344 -17.02