2010-2011 Budget: Return to Suplus in 3 Years, or Phooey?
I just finished watching the budget speech and the 7.30 report analysis of said budget. It seems that the catchphrase for the budget this year was "return to surplus in 3 years", which is what treasury analysis says will happen. Here are some of the numbers we will be looking at:
However, there are some tax rises to take into account.
Other features of the budget worth mentioning:
My thoughts
OK, whooppee, we didn't go into recession, and as such have continued into our 18th straight year of growth. Yeah, the deficit isn't as big as projected. These things are grand, but I am having some trouble believing the numbers that the Treasury have released. Every dollar in increased taxes is accounted for in new spending or cost shifting. The projected surplus will happen if the mining boom continues and commodity prices continue to rise. I have a hard time swallowing that. I prefer numbers that assume things will stay the same, and so in a year we all say "whoopee! we have more moolah than we thought, let's build something we need!" instead of banking on such rises. Who knows if Greece proves to be a leech on the global financial system?
As dirty as it makes me feel, I agree with Hockey. There's something smelly in the room, and it seems to be the numbers. Also, how can we possibly expect more super clinics when only 3 have been built so far? What a joke.
I love the fact that Australia is the only industralised nation to avoid recession. I don't like the overwhelming optimism that everything is in the clear from now on. I'm a little too cautious for that sort of champagne popping.
- A projected deficit this year of $40bn
- A predicted $1bn surplus in 3 years
- Total net debt to peak at $93.1bn, down from last year's projection of $300bn
However, there are some tax rises to take into account.
- The 40% 'super profit tax'
- The 25% increase in cigarette tax
- Which will help offset a decrease in company tax
- As well as the extra spending on health promised in their deal with the states on hospital policy
Other features of the budget worth mentioning:
- $1bn for border protection (admission of failure?)
- Funding for 25 more GP super clinics, something that rightfully prompted laughter from the opposition
- Funding for upgrades to existing GP clinics
- $1bn for rail, Labor's one true love
- Something about tax returns that makes no sense
My thoughts
OK, whooppee, we didn't go into recession, and as such have continued into our 18th straight year of growth. Yeah, the deficit isn't as big as projected. These things are grand, but I am having some trouble believing the numbers that the Treasury have released. Every dollar in increased taxes is accounted for in new spending or cost shifting. The projected surplus will happen if the mining boom continues and commodity prices continue to rise. I have a hard time swallowing that. I prefer numbers that assume things will stay the same, and so in a year we all say "whoopee! we have more moolah than we thought, let's build something we need!" instead of banking on such rises. Who knows if Greece proves to be a leech on the global financial system?
As dirty as it makes me feel, I agree with Hockey. There's something smelly in the room, and it seems to be the numbers. Also, how can we possibly expect more super clinics when only 3 have been built so far? What a joke.
I love the fact that Australia is the only industralised nation to avoid recession. I don't like the overwhelming optimism that everything is in the clear from now on. I'm a little too cautious for that sort of champagne popping.