Cryptowinter will last another 250 days - Grayscale
The Grayscale Investments investment fund, one of the largest funds offering investments in cryptocurrency-linked instruments, has published its forecast regarding the timing of the bull phase of the market. According to the company's analysts, the crypto winter will last another 250 days. If, of course, we can do without unpleasant surprises.
The forecast published over the weekend paints a relatively optimistic picture.
Analysts believe that the bitcoin market cycle averages four years (or 1,275 days). This is how it looks in retrospect:
The transition to the bearish phase usually occurs when the realized value of bitcoin falls below the market price (the MVRV indicator is used).
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) coefficient or multiplier of the underlying value of an asset is calculated by dividing the market value of bitcoin by its realized value. This indicator is used as an indicator that allows you to determine the moment when the rush demand reaches its peak. It is believed that this peak is indicated by a multiplier value above 4, while a value less than 1 is considered as a buy signal.
The last time the drop in the realized price below the market was recorded by analysts on June 13, 2022. The average duration of this period is 250 days. So not much time has passed since the beginning of the phase.
At the same time, the bullish phases lengthened with each cycle - in 2012, the record high was reached in 603 days, in 2016 - in 786 days, and in 2020 - in 952 days.
THE TWO PREVIOUS BITCOIN CYCLES
Therefore, with each subsequent cycle, the phases were lengthened by 180 days - analysts believe that it's a matter of market maturity. At the same time, the historical bottom comes earlier every time (and this is good news).
The full cycle was formed in 2012 in 1290 days, and in 2016 - in 1257. In 2012, it took 391 days for bitcoin to fall from peak values (by 73%). In 2016 (a drop of 84%) - 364 days.
The duration of the current 2020 cycle has reached 1,198 days (at the time of writing the report - July 12, 2022). So until the moment when the realized price exceeds the market price, it will take about four more months. The record high of bitcoin was recorded 222 days ago. So it remains to be patient for another five or six months - and it will be possible to open champagne on the occasion of the end of the crypto-winter (this is taking into account the fact that the bottom will come a month earlier, so historically).
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