Apparently, the local growth of bitcoin has been completed, and we should expect a fall. Let's figur
BTC rose to the coveted $21650 yesterday, after which a downward corrective movement began. In the closed tg channel, I warned everyone in time about the likelihood of a hike to the important weekly level of $ 20800.
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The first thing that confused me yesterday was the formation of a bearish divergence on a four-hour chart. Today we see that Diver is fully formed and is about to start working out his potential.
At the moment, with the greatest probability, we see nothing more than a reverse movement to the lower border of the upward channel broken down.
The drop potential can reach up to $16500-17000. This is if the price breaks through the VPVR POC control line at $19,300. At the moment, I would consider a fall to the accumulation zone of a serious buyer density of $19600-20000.
Yes, we can say about vertical volumes that overlap the previous ones. As well as the bullish overlap of two red candlesticks with one green one. But still, the bearish diver is very confusing, despite all these positive signs.
If you look at the watchmaker, you can see more positive and assume that the bearish diver has already been worked out. Look that a hidden bullish converse has formed in contrast to the diver.
But this is an hourly chart. Here, the development of such factors is more rapid. And, most likely, the potential of the bullish converse is already over. But the potential of the bear diver on the four o'clock has just begun its realization.
In the last article I talked about the magic weekly level of $20800. That being above it, bitcoin is automatically in the bull. Yes, that's exactly it. But I'm trying to get ahead of events and assume a fall below this level and working out a bearish scenario based on the indicators.
In fairness, it is worth noting the resistance on the histogram of the MACD indicator, the penetration of which will mean a further decline.
Also, the moving average and the signal line of the MACD indicator are on top of the neutral zone, which indicates the predominance of the upward potential. But again, I repeat, we are trying to predict the further development of events. The slipper and the signal are intertwined. Combined with a bearish diver, this is not a good sign.
The funding is mostly positive. This means that longists use excessive leverage and pay a premium to shortists every 8 hours to hold their positions and balance the margin market.
Longs on ratio still do not exceed 50%, which looks very positive. But if the price goes below $ 20,800, they are most likely to start growing in the area of 60-65%.
So far, liquidity is concentrated at prices above the current ones.
Disclaimer: not financial advice.
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