Populism and the Balance of the Universe
There's an unexpected horse race happening today in Massachusetts, and whatever the outcome, I think we've all learned something important about ourselves over the last year.
1) No matter how much "the people" want change, they will almost always reject it because it's not enough.
2) No matter how much "the people" want change, they will almost always reject it because it's too much.
3) The majority is never anything more than the ones with the biggest targets on their backs.
and
4) Political life isn't about the outcomes, it's about the game.
Of course, none of this is a surprise. But in the age of Information Ubiquity, the game has been to a whole new level. Few people who count themselves as "worldly" can just sit back anymore and count that their interests are their neighbors' interests. If you're not spinning your position, someone else will be out there spinning the position that hurts you most.
What does surprise me is that, at least in my social circles, the level of engagement in the game seems to be increasing. I'd have expected that the more ridiculous things got, the more people would disengage and fort-up to protect their own interests, no matter what happened. Instead, the more ridiculous things get, the more average, everyday people are crawling out of the woodwork to pile more invective onto an already-oversized heap. And not in a productive way... revolutions may start with the pen, but they never succeed if their adherents aren't willing to go any further.
My political views are an awful lot like my religious views when you come right down to it. To me, religion is like bowling: It's a vital part of a lot of people's lives, though I've never understood why. They do it every week, or more. It's the subject of epic battles, but there's at least as many people who participate regularly for the beer and camaraderie as for the activity itself. And while I own two sets of ugly and slightly-uncomfortable shoes for it (different brands), it's ultimately just not that important to me. I'll go every once in awhile in a social situation just to see how the game has changed -- though it rarely does.
The difference between religion and politics, however, is that there aren't that many people who participate in the latter because it's fulfilling for them. In fact, politics tends to attract the sort of Spanish Inquisition-grade personalities who do bad things because they believe they have to, and any good things they might do are means to an end that they'd intend to achieve anyhow.
Whatever happens in Massachusetts, America is once again poised for a sea change of opinion, propaganda and activism. There's been too many of those already, of late. The ultra-Liberals who were encouraged last year are very likely to be smacked down into a bit more silence, 'lest they sink the whole ship. The ultra-Conservatives who were discouraged last year, are likely to be more vociferously pompous in their demands, and they'll push for increasingly unpalatable policies that don't actually benefit anyone. Those in the middle will be courted with ever-more outlandish compensation to support agendas that say very little, but lay the framework for the most outrageous of future events. The "Hope and Change" message will die... we had the hope, we got the change, and it was most fecklessly squandered by those to whom it was entrusted, when they had the chance.
I'd expect things to quiet down. I'd expect the wheels of politics to grind slowly to a halt, and for bureaucratic gridlock to ensue. I'd further expect the overly-enthusiastic among the population to become disillusioned, even as the terminally-lazy get the message that maybe they need to take a bit more interest in their own futures, because nobody else is going to. In short, I'd expect things to drift towards the middle, and hang around there in an overall atmosphere of apathy.
And yet, I don't think it will. The quiet, secular days of the 21st century in the West haven't dampened the overall enthusiasm for religion in America, any more than the demise of Wide World of Sports in prime-time dampened the enthusiasm for league bowling... (that is to say, they're both a bit diminished but not in danger of going away anytime soon!) The quiet, uneventful days of gridlock in government ought to shut up the Obama-hounds and the Tea Partiers alike.
So why am I convinced that tomorrow morning, things will only be worse?
1) No matter how much "the people" want change, they will almost always reject it because it's not enough.
2) No matter how much "the people" want change, they will almost always reject it because it's too much.
3) The majority is never anything more than the ones with the biggest targets on their backs.
and
4) Political life isn't about the outcomes, it's about the game.
Of course, none of this is a surprise. But in the age of Information Ubiquity, the game has been to a whole new level. Few people who count themselves as "worldly" can just sit back anymore and count that their interests are their neighbors' interests. If you're not spinning your position, someone else will be out there spinning the position that hurts you most.
What does surprise me is that, at least in my social circles, the level of engagement in the game seems to be increasing. I'd have expected that the more ridiculous things got, the more people would disengage and fort-up to protect their own interests, no matter what happened. Instead, the more ridiculous things get, the more average, everyday people are crawling out of the woodwork to pile more invective onto an already-oversized heap. And not in a productive way... revolutions may start with the pen, but they never succeed if their adherents aren't willing to go any further.
My political views are an awful lot like my religious views when you come right down to it. To me, religion is like bowling: It's a vital part of a lot of people's lives, though I've never understood why. They do it every week, or more. It's the subject of epic battles, but there's at least as many people who participate regularly for the beer and camaraderie as for the activity itself. And while I own two sets of ugly and slightly-uncomfortable shoes for it (different brands), it's ultimately just not that important to me. I'll go every once in awhile in a social situation just to see how the game has changed -- though it rarely does.
The difference between religion and politics, however, is that there aren't that many people who participate in the latter because it's fulfilling for them. In fact, politics tends to attract the sort of Spanish Inquisition-grade personalities who do bad things because they believe they have to, and any good things they might do are means to an end that they'd intend to achieve anyhow.
Whatever happens in Massachusetts, America is once again poised for a sea change of opinion, propaganda and activism. There's been too many of those already, of late. The ultra-Liberals who were encouraged last year are very likely to be smacked down into a bit more silence, 'lest they sink the whole ship. The ultra-Conservatives who were discouraged last year, are likely to be more vociferously pompous in their demands, and they'll push for increasingly unpalatable policies that don't actually benefit anyone. Those in the middle will be courted with ever-more outlandish compensation to support agendas that say very little, but lay the framework for the most outrageous of future events. The "Hope and Change" message will die... we had the hope, we got the change, and it was most fecklessly squandered by those to whom it was entrusted, when they had the chance.
I'd expect things to quiet down. I'd expect the wheels of politics to grind slowly to a halt, and for bureaucratic gridlock to ensue. I'd further expect the overly-enthusiastic among the population to become disillusioned, even as the terminally-lazy get the message that maybe they need to take a bit more interest in their own futures, because nobody else is going to. In short, I'd expect things to drift towards the middle, and hang around there in an overall atmosphere of apathy.
And yet, I don't think it will. The quiet, secular days of the 21st century in the West haven't dampened the overall enthusiasm for religion in America, any more than the demise of Wide World of Sports in prime-time dampened the enthusiasm for league bowling... (that is to say, they're both a bit diminished but not in danger of going away anytime soon!) The quiet, uneventful days of gridlock in government ought to shut up the Obama-hounds and the Tea Partiers alike.
So why am I convinced that tomorrow morning, things will only be worse?