Economic #news from #Michigan's research universities #economy
Originally posted as a comment on Daily Kos.
University of Michigan: Still feels like a recession, but slow recovery will pick up
ANN ARBOR, Mich.-While the nation's economy will gain some momentum in the second half of next year, it will take until 2012 before unemployment finally begins to subside, say economists at the University of Michigan.
After losing more than 8 million payroll jobs from the end of 2007 to the end of 2009-the highest two-year job loss in more than 50 years-the U.S. economy will have gained 900,000 jobs by the end of this year before adding another 1.5 million jobs during 2011 and 2.4 million jobs during 2012.
The unemployment rate, which will average 9.7 percent this year and 9.6 percent in 2011, will finally start edging downward to average 9.3 percent in 2012 and dip below 9 percent by the beginning of 2013, they say.
"Employment did begin to edge higher at the start of this year, but new jobs have still been hard to come by," said U-M economist Joan Crary. "Nevertheless, the labor market has begun to stabilize and employment is expected to increase in every quarter of the forecast period. However, with output growth forecast to remain sluggish, employment stays below its 2008 peak through the end of 2012."
University of Michigan: Michigan will finally add jobs, but economy is still hurting
ANN ARBOR, Mich.-After losing nearly 850,000 jobs since 2000, the Michigan economy will gain jobs next year for the first time in more than a decade, say economists at the University of Michigan.
"It is our sense that we are now approaching the turning point from negative to positive net job creation," said George Fulton, director of U-M's Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics. "An upward turn in the state macroeconomy has been long awaited and would be welcome news, indeed, but we must keep in mind that the event will not usher in a changing tide for many of Michigan's struggling residents.
"With high rates of unemployment and home foreclosures persisting, for many among us the economic distress will continue."
In their annual November forecast of the Michigan economy, Fulton and colleagues Joan Crary and Donald Grimes say the state will make modest gains of 24,500 jobs during 2011 before the economy starts to gather strength and adds 63,000 jobs during 2012. This follows job losses of 17,000 during 2010 and an unprecedented 230,000 during 2009.
Michigan State University: College job market to see slight rebound
EAST LANSING, Mich. - The national job market for college graduates should rebound slightly next year as many large corporations end hiring freezes and small, fast-growth companies continue helping reshape the economy, according to Michigan State University’s 2010-11 Recruiting Trends report.
Overall hiring is expected to increase 3 percent, with bachelor’s-level and MBA-level hiring both surging 10 percent, said Phil Gardner, director of MSU’s Collegiate Employment Research Institute, which conducted the survey of some 4,600 employers.
Geographically, the Great Lakes region, which took the brunt of the recession, will see a robust 13 percent increase in bachelor’s-level hiring, which is tops in the nation, Gardner predicts. The region consists of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.
But the good news should be taken with a word of caution, Gardner said. An uptick in job growth is simply the first step out of a very deep hole, he said, and hardly represents a return to the heady economic days of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
“The national economy is certainly not returning to its previous high production base,” Gardner said. “And even though the economy has shown early signs of sustained recovery, the overall job market has remained relatively anemic.”
More at the links in the headlines.
Crossposted to the_recession.