Tonight, I watched an excellent
Frontline (PBS) episode on
the current state of al Queda. I highly recommend that you watch it.
1. The tribal regions of Pakistan is where Osama is most likely hiding out. In fact, the Frontline narrator pointed out a place where he had been a couple of weeks before they taped the show. This is a place where the graffiti reads "Long live Osama". The Pakistani government isn't in control here. The tribes are. And, all the tribes are heavily armed with Soviet-era machine guns and RPG's. The Pakistani government hasn't allowed the U.S. army into this region for fear of creating an armed rebellion throughout all of Pakistan.
2. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is in a tight spot. If he manages to survive the assassination attempts, he still must walk a delicate balance of bringing order to the tribal regions (which the U.S. wants) and not upsetting the radical Muslims who would like to rid him from government by voting him out.
3. During the 90's, Pakistan had sent some 50,000 men to train in al Queda training camps so that they could help free the indigenous peoples of the Kashmir region which lies within India's borders.
4. Bush got to use one of those cool predator drones to bomb some high ranking al Queda officers who were driving across the Yemini dessert.
5. There is no shortage of anti-U.S. sentiment in the region. Well, this was a Frontline take on things. They interviewed a Yemini woman who got all starry-eyed when she talked about Osama bin Laden. She also said she felt joy when she saw the towers collapse. She wanted her son to grow up to be like Osama.
Overall, the real war on terror is still going on. Did Iraq distract the Bush administration? Probably. But, it's also a difficult situation. al Queda exploits anti-U.S. sentiment in lawless regions which the central governments of those countries doesn't really control. Walking the line between getting the central government to help you and getting that same government overthrown by anti-U.S. coalitions is a fine line to walk. On top of that, the governments who are helping you don't want anyone else to know they are helping you. This does create a difficult political situation for a President who wants to show results in the war on terror.
There are people out there still fighting the real war on terror, but many of those fighting the war are the soldiers of the countries who border lawless regions. Personally, I now feel deeply indebted to the brave young men of the Pakistani and Yemini armies who are currently fighting al Queda.