The Ratings Game - my 0.02
I was really sick last evening, but Mr Mousie, who is better than any kdrama hero to ever exist, coaxed me to eat dinner and then went out and bought me NyQuil so I could get some sleep. I am feeling much better, which is just as well as today is SKKS/Giant doubleheader :P
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The dynamics aren't that different from what you'd find elsewhere. All the points you made, the scheduling decisions (when and where i.e. the timeslot to launch the drama), the influence of advertisers (who can tell us a thing or two from their own market research), ... they all play a role in these high-stakes games.
I could and would never try to predict what ratings any drama would pull before it premieres, but I wouldn't expect anything over 15%:
* if they can't win over more than two different groups of demos. How they can win over is up for grab-- obviously solid storytelling and acting from the outset would help immensely, but if the drama's taking some risks, it helps to find some balance btw the risky factors and more conventional strategies, which is what I think dramas like IRIS or Daemul have done fairly well from the beginning. But one way or another, the drama has to find a way to appeal to a broad segment of the population if it's aiming past 10-15%. Past 25-30% and the data will show the drama's winning over 3-4 groups. (GHJ gained a whole new generation of young fans--children and teenagers--via QSD, in the same way she won over viewers--esp. male--in their 20-30s with Sandglass.)
* Job's harder if the drama's launched opposite established dramas, kinda like what happened to SKKS squeezed btw DongYi and Giant. How to make viewers switch channels or draw new viewers... luck, word of mouth, continued solid storytelling, who knows.
* It hurts if they can't win over in the first week or two. (I have no idea if Runaway or RN1 improved afterwards, but falling out of favor in those first weeks were a huge blow.) But it's not impossible to recover, not at all. Gumiho Tale of the Fox Child, Queen of Housewives, The Woman in the Sun, Last Scandal, More Beautiful Than A Flower... those are just a few examples I can think of who built on their audience with among other things strong word of mouth and good reviews.
e.g. Daemul is not a huge English fandom hit but from what I know, Korean Daemul boards are hopping like mad.
It does hop more in Korea-- Daemul and Flames of Desire are the rare examples in which I saw the MBC Drama DCgallery (which is like the TWoP equivalent for all dramas on network TV; the KBS gallery sticks to its own and the SBS gallery is inactive) go wild recently, even though Daemul isn't on MBC. And the buzz, the word of mouth is very strong elsewhere as well, to the point where anybody will be tempted to know what the fuss is about. (Unlike the tepid reactions to Runaway.) But even in Korea, SKKS has a much larger online presence than Daemul. Who knows, maybe it'll grow to have more established fanboards here and there (ie. forum dedicated to discussing and dissecting all things Daemul), but I think it's more likely to end up like IRIS than the more mania-driven dramas. It's great fun (DoYa and his boss were a huge hit last week, for reasons you'll see soon), and great catharsis (the most popular scene from ep. 4 was DoYa besting the politicians), but it's not the type to spark mania like for SKKS, Capital Scandal, Resurrection.
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I think if the drama is too narrowly targeted, no matter how good it is and how rabid the targeted population will be about it, it won't be a hit. There has to be something for everyone. E.g. You're Beautiful (not a drama I like) - I would imagine most 25+ women and most men of any age were not targeted by it at all and didn't care for it. Or my favorite Worlds Within - brilliant drama but way to idisyncratic and quirky - I could see why it never got out of single digits. O
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I haven't seen much of the Hong Sisters' stuff outside a few clips of Fantasy Couple (which many Koreans seem to cite as their favorite HS drama), but the criticisms I often heard on DCgall vs YAB or Gumiho were that they're too manhwa-ish and the HS are just recycling their stuff. Nothing wrong with that, but not exactly an outreach strategy.
Noh's dramas also provide some interesting examples re: this dilemma with ratings. The only one I watched is More Beautiful Than A Flower (2004), and from what I gather, her more family-oriented work (like MBTAF, which is built around a mother, two daughters and youngest son) has indeed done better in the ratings (MBTAF's finale came close to 30%). It too started out in single digits (ran opposite the juggernaut Stairway to Heaven), but began to draw viewers who wanted more grounded storylines, though it'd never have risen much if Stairway had stayed on air (so yes, luck plays a part). But here's the more interesting dilemma-- if MBTAF had been a weekend drama, Noh would have been happy just writing family stuff. But because it was on weekdays (Wed-Thurs), she said she felt like it needed something extra, which was why she threw in the 2nd daughter's doomed, star-crossed love story with the man who was responsible for her brother's death. And both Noh and the director (who will now be leading Daemul's team, but that's a whole different story) said their toughest challenge was to balance the two worlds (the family stuff and what they felt was the contrived melodrama), though I'd never have guessed any tensions from what I saw.
Noh's more recent work (there's a persistent rumor she has something lined up but the network/KBS is reluctant to give her timeslot)-- the criticisms I hear is that it's fine if she wants to be in her own world, but if she wants better ratings, she needs to learn how to engage and communicate with a broader audience than those who're more familiar or receptive to her work. It's her choice, and some have suggested she might feel less pressure writing books than writing TV scripts (they sell quite well apparently).
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The only one of Noh's dramas I've seen is Worlds Within and it wasn't like anything I've ever seen. It really did remind me of novels I used to read - Herve Bazin or similar. Or maybe shades of Jorge Amado's interconnected, deeply humanistic stories or EM Remarque's love story - with each scene conveying the ephemeral feeling (minus Remarque's sense of loss and doom). It is the only time I have ever come across a drama which felt like a novel in visual form. I can see why it was a flop as it was so different but I will be eternally grateful for having seen it. I also have her Goodbye Solo, which I am sort of hoarding and I actually found Flower with subtitles and I intend to get my hands on it.
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