2013's Bad Start
It wasn't exactly a peaceful 2012, and 2013 doesn't look a whole lot better. Oh, that Afghanistan thing is still going on, but in other parts of the world there's a whole lot of other civil conflict that looks like it could spill over across borders and into the international playing field at any moment.
So here is a quick list of all the powder kegs currently burning today.
Syria
If any conflict has dominated the world press for the last twelve months, it's been Syria. The deaths, the fighting, the romantic allure of freedom fighters battling a totalitarian dictatorship, the paranoia-inducing fear of al-Qaeda influenced thugs overthrowing another stable government, it's all been there. Unlike the relatively straight-forward war in Libya (the population of which lives on a line), Syria has been a mess, but one that has hardly been camera shy.
As to how things are going? Well:
Source: http://www.polgeonow.com/
One brief look at the map tells you that the government's hold has worn away, with the rebel forces closing continuously around the capital and the deep desert regions, but the war is far from over. In particular, note that the coastal regions are still firm government strongholds. It's no coincidence, the coastal region is the stronghold of the Alawites, a religious and ethnic group whose prominent members include Bashar al-Assad, President of Syria. Like Sirte in Libya, it's unlikely that the home of the current president will just cede power easily once the revolution comes, but unlike Sirte the coastal regions have formidable geographic and cultural boundaries that separate them from the rest of Syria. While experts are dubious about the long-term prospects of an independent Alawite state (one whose very existence would impoverish and isolate Greater Syria), it's a convenient fortress for a drawn-out last stand by the people who still have most of the weapons. If we're lucky we'll never have to find out what that would be like.
Somalia
For several years Somalia has taken center stage as the world's greatest libertarian paradise. A unique country that exists without laws, borders, restrictions, or government at all, Somalia is the ultimate example of a hands-off government, as for several years the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia was so hands-off that they weren't even allowed in the country. But now, thanks to the brave efforts of a bunch of soldiers from countries that are either not
Somalia, or wishing not to be in Somalia, the TFG is claiming significant progress:
Source: http://www.polgeonow.com/
See that map? Look at the big dots, the big cities? They're all in government hands now (well, some government anyway). That means the TFG is winning! Yup, all they've got to do is Stay The Course, and pretty soon it'll be Mission Accomplished. It means that al-Shabaab can no longer rule from the bombed out remains of whatever foreign luxury hotels were in Mogadishu before the city was razed the first time, instead they're crouching inside the remains of the Somali equivalent to Motel 6. Ha! Take that! Yes, you can definitely see that progress is being made - so please keep sending money to the Kenyans and the Ethiopians and Puntland, and everyone else whose soldiers are actually keeping the government together. We can't do it without you
guys!
Mali
So some people remember Mali, where the army, in an attempt to prove to the rest of the world that they were capable of reliable and consistent democratic governance and of prosecuting the war against the northern rebels, promptly overthrew their own president, thus earning them widespread condemnation, threats of invasion, and the loss of the entire northern part of the country in approximately fifteen minutes of actual fighting. While the south of the country dealt with a lot of political flak over that whole "overthrowing the government" thing, the northern part was either conquered or liberated by the rebel group MNLA, which attempted to create the new state of Azawad, which lasted all of about two months before Islamist group Ansar Dine kicked them out of power and replaced them with the same kind of maniacal iconoclasts we've come to know and love. The end effects of that, including the destruction of much of historical Timbuktu, endeared them to absolutely nobody.
Of course, given that the army of Mali has proven to be about as militarily effective at winning wars as the Seattle Mariners are at winning the World Series, the rebels haven't exactly stopped. But never fear, help is on the way. In return for an agreement under which the coup government promises not to look so bloody stupid on international television (and certain undisclosed concessions which may or may not include crepes), the country is now receiving direct military aid from the French. French troops are on the way to Mali (as are, in some parallel universe, troops from ECOWAS), as are French planes, who have already performed an air strike in Mali. The official line from the Malians (well, the army of Mali), is that at least the French aren't going to make anything worse, an attitude that may have its explanation in Mali's poor literacy rate.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo
The DRC is being rocked by rebel attacks from a group known as M23, in a series of conflicts so diverse that even a brief explanation takes up seventy pages, and who got credit for capturing Goma, and then realizing that they had Goma and giving it back. What this really means is that the conflict in the Congo has finally gotten so diverse, that the rebels groups have run out of unique Three Letter Acronyms, and have been forced to begin using numbers. Projections from knowledgeable experts predict that the conflict will outstrip all possible three and four character acronyms by 2016, and that by 2020, the DRC will be the first country in the world to have more active rebel groups than there are people in the country, leading to a rash of suicides as people in the country are forced to declare war on
themselves.
(Seriously, it is very hard to straighten out the mess in the Congo. It's not universally bad, but attempting to explain the origins of any single group, the prospects of any single peace plan, or even predict what the next year will bring is so bleak that it forces me to satire as a self-defense mechanism).
The Central African Republic
The CAR has long held a reputation for having the most generic possible name a country could have, although you'll never forget where it is. But recently the CAR, a weak state with an unstable authoritarian government, has been rocked by, who woulda thunk, rebel attacks. The rebels have been making a straight march on the capital, with only minor variations on the theme:
Source: http://www.polgeonow.com/
A peace deal has since been temporarily arranged, with the help of several other countries who have sent their soldiers to the Central African Republic in the same way that visiting relatives descend on the house of an old, dying rich man with measuring tapes and floor plans. Well, who knows what will happen next, but lasting peace tends not to be terribly lasting in that part of the world.
South Sudan and Sudan
The world's most guarded border is between the two Koreas, but the most unfriendly border in the world is probably between the two Sudans, which is sort of what it would look like if every football team in the world played a game in the same stadium at the same time, and all the fans were given metal pipes as gifts. South Sudan certainly hasn't forgotten the part where its independence required a decades long conflict, and that Sudan hasn't been friendly ever since. Northern Sudan still has a bit of a problem with that whole Darfur region that just won't shut up and die, and the South is wracked by issues given that the SPLM political movement that won independence is dominated by members of certain ethnic groups that are not representative of the complex and multi-layered ethnic makeup of the south. The result is that both sides are on the verge of internal civil war (in some parts), as well as eagerly egging on that prospect in their neighbors. Add to that the fact that they are economically inter-dependent, even if Southern Sudan's oil is more vulnerable, nothing's going to change on the hostility front.
Source: The Guardian
Of course there's another flashpoint in all of this - the border between the two is not well-defined in people space. It is home to groups of peoples, families, villages, and tribes, that have laid claim to areas of land for decades or even centuries. And now, with two sides vying for their support (and their help in securing the border), and territorial dispute, any fracas, any anything has the possibility of being escalated to a much more serious conflict with very little warning. Don't expect this one to go full-bore this year, but don't expect everyone to suddenly figure out how to play happy families either.
Egypt
A President assuming dictatorial powers, protesters in Tahrir Square, a country in turmoil, the army choosing sides. To quote Han Solo, "Didn't we just leave this party?"
It's temporarily resolved, but don't expect that to last. The struggle between the urge for dictatorship and democracy (or a solution to all the country's problems) is probably older than time, and won't be exhausted in Egypt anytime soon.
Nigeria
Strangely enough, creating the largest country in Africa out of a hodgepodge of different people, ethnicities, cultures, lifestyles and biomes did not result in racial harmony. In fact it sort of resulted in a racial tug-of-war that has seen The Biafran War, a rebellion in basically every quadrant, an ongoing secession movement in basically every region, and a government that is a house of cards.
Source: Wikimedia
Fundamentally, Nigeria is three countries (at least), and politically this has long been acknowledged, with power swapping between the South (nominally Christian and animist), and the north (usually Muslim). That's broken down recently (let's be honest, it only really lasted a decade or so), and it's back to fighting as usual, as the north attempts to become even poorer than it already is. That just means that logic has no more place here. Let's go out fighting!
Mexico
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, yeah, it's still a mess. At least most of the country has figured out how to ignore it, but for the people who live in the bad regions, it's going to be hell. If it makes the US feel any better, it's the US's fault, but there's not much we can do about it besides legalizing Marijuana and restricting gun sales. And we'd rather let everyone in Mexico die than do that.
Myanmar
Is now a democracy. Really. And it's committed to peaceful coexistence with the various other ethnic groups that make up Myanmar. It's not like it opened the year by launching a massive offensive against separatists who want an independent Kachin state, and then continued the offensive for well over a week. Oh wait, they did.
Well, surely they wouldn't be so corrupt as to use their newfound democracy as a cover story for launching a series of strikes against ethnic groups, eliminate unpopular minorities, and consolidate their power without western interference? Would they?
Nah, they're a democracy now, they can't be that bad.
So here is a quick list of all the powder kegs currently burning today.
Syria
If any conflict has dominated the world press for the last twelve months, it's been Syria. The deaths, the fighting, the romantic allure of freedom fighters battling a totalitarian dictatorship, the paranoia-inducing fear of al-Qaeda influenced thugs overthrowing another stable government, it's all been there. Unlike the relatively straight-forward war in Libya (the population of which lives on a line), Syria has been a mess, but one that has hardly been camera shy.
As to how things are going? Well:
Source: http://www.polgeonow.com/
One brief look at the map tells you that the government's hold has worn away, with the rebel forces closing continuously around the capital and the deep desert regions, but the war is far from over. In particular, note that the coastal regions are still firm government strongholds. It's no coincidence, the coastal region is the stronghold of the Alawites, a religious and ethnic group whose prominent members include Bashar al-Assad, President of Syria. Like Sirte in Libya, it's unlikely that the home of the current president will just cede power easily once the revolution comes, but unlike Sirte the coastal regions have formidable geographic and cultural boundaries that separate them from the rest of Syria. While experts are dubious about the long-term prospects of an independent Alawite state (one whose very existence would impoverish and isolate Greater Syria), it's a convenient fortress for a drawn-out last stand by the people who still have most of the weapons. If we're lucky we'll never have to find out what that would be like.
Somalia
For several years Somalia has taken center stage as the world's greatest libertarian paradise. A unique country that exists without laws, borders, restrictions, or government at all, Somalia is the ultimate example of a hands-off government, as for several years the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia was so hands-off that they weren't even allowed in the country. But now, thanks to the brave efforts of a bunch of soldiers from countries that are either not
Somalia, or wishing not to be in Somalia, the TFG is claiming significant progress:
Source: http://www.polgeonow.com/
See that map? Look at the big dots, the big cities? They're all in government hands now (well, some government anyway). That means the TFG is winning! Yup, all they've got to do is Stay The Course, and pretty soon it'll be Mission Accomplished. It means that al-Shabaab can no longer rule from the bombed out remains of whatever foreign luxury hotels were in Mogadishu before the city was razed the first time, instead they're crouching inside the remains of the Somali equivalent to Motel 6. Ha! Take that! Yes, you can definitely see that progress is being made - so please keep sending money to the Kenyans and the Ethiopians and Puntland, and everyone else whose soldiers are actually keeping the government together. We can't do it without you
guys!
Mali
So some people remember Mali, where the army, in an attempt to prove to the rest of the world that they were capable of reliable and consistent democratic governance and of prosecuting the war against the northern rebels, promptly overthrew their own president, thus earning them widespread condemnation, threats of invasion, and the loss of the entire northern part of the country in approximately fifteen minutes of actual fighting. While the south of the country dealt with a lot of political flak over that whole "overthrowing the government" thing, the northern part was either conquered or liberated by the rebel group MNLA, which attempted to create the new state of Azawad, which lasted all of about two months before Islamist group Ansar Dine kicked them out of power and replaced them with the same kind of maniacal iconoclasts we've come to know and love. The end effects of that, including the destruction of much of historical Timbuktu, endeared them to absolutely nobody.
Of course, given that the army of Mali has proven to be about as militarily effective at winning wars as the Seattle Mariners are at winning the World Series, the rebels haven't exactly stopped. But never fear, help is on the way. In return for an agreement under which the coup government promises not to look so bloody stupid on international television (and certain undisclosed concessions which may or may not include crepes), the country is now receiving direct military aid from the French. French troops are on the way to Mali (as are, in some parallel universe, troops from ECOWAS), as are French planes, who have already performed an air strike in Mali. The official line from the Malians (well, the army of Mali), is that at least the French aren't going to make anything worse, an attitude that may have its explanation in Mali's poor literacy rate.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo
The DRC is being rocked by rebel attacks from a group known as M23, in a series of conflicts so diverse that even a brief explanation takes up seventy pages, and who got credit for capturing Goma, and then realizing that they had Goma and giving it back. What this really means is that the conflict in the Congo has finally gotten so diverse, that the rebels groups have run out of unique Three Letter Acronyms, and have been forced to begin using numbers. Projections from knowledgeable experts predict that the conflict will outstrip all possible three and four character acronyms by 2016, and that by 2020, the DRC will be the first country in the world to have more active rebel groups than there are people in the country, leading to a rash of suicides as people in the country are forced to declare war on
themselves.
(Seriously, it is very hard to straighten out the mess in the Congo. It's not universally bad, but attempting to explain the origins of any single group, the prospects of any single peace plan, or even predict what the next year will bring is so bleak that it forces me to satire as a self-defense mechanism).
The Central African Republic
The CAR has long held a reputation for having the most generic possible name a country could have, although you'll never forget where it is. But recently the CAR, a weak state with an unstable authoritarian government, has been rocked by, who woulda thunk, rebel attacks. The rebels have been making a straight march on the capital, with only minor variations on the theme:
Source: http://www.polgeonow.com/
A peace deal has since been temporarily arranged, with the help of several other countries who have sent their soldiers to the Central African Republic in the same way that visiting relatives descend on the house of an old, dying rich man with measuring tapes and floor plans. Well, who knows what will happen next, but lasting peace tends not to be terribly lasting in that part of the world.
South Sudan and Sudan
The world's most guarded border is between the two Koreas, but the most unfriendly border in the world is probably between the two Sudans, which is sort of what it would look like if every football team in the world played a game in the same stadium at the same time, and all the fans were given metal pipes as gifts. South Sudan certainly hasn't forgotten the part where its independence required a decades long conflict, and that Sudan hasn't been friendly ever since. Northern Sudan still has a bit of a problem with that whole Darfur region that just won't shut up and die, and the South is wracked by issues given that the SPLM political movement that won independence is dominated by members of certain ethnic groups that are not representative of the complex and multi-layered ethnic makeup of the south. The result is that both sides are on the verge of internal civil war (in some parts), as well as eagerly egging on that prospect in their neighbors. Add to that the fact that they are economically inter-dependent, even if Southern Sudan's oil is more vulnerable, nothing's going to change on the hostility front.
Source: The Guardian
Of course there's another flashpoint in all of this - the border between the two is not well-defined in people space. It is home to groups of peoples, families, villages, and tribes, that have laid claim to areas of land for decades or even centuries. And now, with two sides vying for their support (and their help in securing the border), and territorial dispute, any fracas, any anything has the possibility of being escalated to a much more serious conflict with very little warning. Don't expect this one to go full-bore this year, but don't expect everyone to suddenly figure out how to play happy families either.
Egypt
A President assuming dictatorial powers, protesters in Tahrir Square, a country in turmoil, the army choosing sides. To quote Han Solo, "Didn't we just leave this party?"
It's temporarily resolved, but don't expect that to last. The struggle between the urge for dictatorship and democracy (or a solution to all the country's problems) is probably older than time, and won't be exhausted in Egypt anytime soon.
Nigeria
Strangely enough, creating the largest country in Africa out of a hodgepodge of different people, ethnicities, cultures, lifestyles and biomes did not result in racial harmony. In fact it sort of resulted in a racial tug-of-war that has seen The Biafran War, a rebellion in basically every quadrant, an ongoing secession movement in basically every region, and a government that is a house of cards.
Source: Wikimedia
Fundamentally, Nigeria is three countries (at least), and politically this has long been acknowledged, with power swapping between the South (nominally Christian and animist), and the north (usually Muslim). That's broken down recently (let's be honest, it only really lasted a decade or so), and it's back to fighting as usual, as the north attempts to become even poorer than it already is. That just means that logic has no more place here. Let's go out fighting!
Mexico
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, yeah, it's still a mess. At least most of the country has figured out how to ignore it, but for the people who live in the bad regions, it's going to be hell. If it makes the US feel any better, it's the US's fault, but there's not much we can do about it besides legalizing Marijuana and restricting gun sales. And we'd rather let everyone in Mexico die than do that.
Myanmar
Is now a democracy. Really. And it's committed to peaceful coexistence with the various other ethnic groups that make up Myanmar. It's not like it opened the year by launching a massive offensive against separatists who want an independent Kachin state, and then continued the offensive for well over a week. Oh wait, they did.
Well, surely they wouldn't be so corrupt as to use their newfound democracy as a cover story for launching a series of strikes against ethnic groups, eliminate unpopular minorities, and consolidate their power without western interference? Would they?
Nah, they're a democracy now, they can't be that bad.