Small Countries

Nov 14, 2012 21:00

A lot of computer people have long suspected that anti-virus software was essentially a kind of elaborate scam, not just the pop-up window viruses that promise you 'virus protection' after they've infected your computer, but the kind of anti-virus programs that they sell in reputable stores. Even when they work, they're essentially attempts to fix problems they already know about, when your biggest problem is ones that you don't.

So it comes as no surprise that John McAfee, creator of the company that is probably second- or third-most likely to install their software alongside something entirely unrelated, is a bit of a snake oil salesman in real life. But we were surprised to find out from Gizmodo that McAfee has entered a lifestyle involving 17-year old girlfriends, an arsenal of guns, and a descent full-blown paranoia.

That was then, of course, November 8th. Now the neighbor that McAfee had disputes with, American expatriate Gregory Faull, is dead. McAfee himself, wanted for questioning regarding the incident, is on the run.

The affair has turned into a full-blown internet sensation. McAfee is making regular phone calls to Wired reporter Joshua Davis, claiming that he is now in disguise, and is evading the police. He's already compared the rounding up of his various employees for questioning to Stalin's detentions, has claimed the police are out to kill him, and is presumably doing some wacky stunt right now, probably involving driving an ATV off a cliff. What's drawn people here is not so much the celebrity factor, but the continual amount of crazy that McAfee continues to deliver live through the internet.

If this was the US, this would be pretty cut and dry. The kind of person who has to give live updates on his escape on twitter is not the kind who can stay out of police sight for long. If he managed to escape here he would rightly raise all manner of conspiracy theories. But McAfee has been living in Belize, that small country in South America that doesn't quite fit in.



McAfee is the perfect criminal in a way. If you had to have a murderer loose in your country, you probably want one who constantly updates his internet pals on where he is. That should be the easiest arrest in history.

Unless, of course, you can't find him.

It's not really Belize's fault. It's not a bad country. It's a little poor, with a nominal GDP per capita of under $9,000, but it's not that poor. It's stable, a functioning nation that has defied many Central American norms, and has managed to fight its way up the rankings of the Human Development Index. In fact, it's one of the few countries in Latin America where the police are actually considered trustworthy by the local population.

But above all, Belize is small. A nation of at most 350,000 people, occupying a country of 23,000 square kilometers. A nation with the population of Bakersfield, California, running a country the size of New Jersey, in the middle of the western hemisphere's worst neighborhood, the path that drugs take from poorly governed South and Central American countrysides to suburban American markets. To protect that, the Belize Police and Military combined has a budget of about $40 million. To continue the comparisons, that's about half of the $70 million budget of the Bakersfield, CA police department. This may explain the country's high murder rate.

Belize is far from being unique of course. Several of the more recent nations on Earth (East Timor and Montenegro for instance), are similarly tiny. But being small is a challenge in and of itself. Most of the world's truly small nations have their borders and safety guaranteed by their neighbors, but Belize has no such assurance.

CSIS points out that by their estimates Belize's security force may only have about $8 million a year to spend on equipment. That means that a country with over 500 kilometers of land border would take two years of saving their entire budget just to buy a single helicopter (which is almost $15 million most of the time, not counting operating costs). And if the police budget is that strained, imagine how strained the health and safety budget is, or the education budget.

Governments get their money by pooling the resources and assets of their people, but in Belize there just isn't that much to pool. Belize is the kind of country that would have to check the couch cushions for change before buying textbooks, not to mention helicopters, long-range radios, surveillance radars, or any of that other stuff you need to go chasing down a murderer on the lam. They have other problems, and other priorities.

Now, there's nothing wrong with this. They have the right to be independent if they want to. And they'll probably catch McAfee, who seems almost too unbalanced to escape. But we shouldn't be surprised if he somehow gets away. There's no conspiracy theory needed, no set of strange circumstances, no CIA plot. Belize is just a very, very small country that has to spend each penny wisely, and I hope that we remember that should it come to us all exchanging blame for who let a murder suspect get away.

latin america, news, international, computers

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