In Other News...
Not really making the headlines today, but it looks like there's another coup this year, this time in Mali. This is actually something that I think a lot of people saw coming, but that not a lot of people can do something about. As I understand it (and I'm by no means an expert), this is partially our fault, so maybe we should pay attention.
The problem starts with the Tuareg rebellion in the north. There have always been Tuareg tribes in the northern areas of Mali, and they've always been a bit unhappy at being part of a country that doesn't seem to represent them. For many years the Tuareg existed in something of an uneasy peace with the dominant Mande people who made up the more southern portion of the country.
Unfortunately, that changed last year. The more militant and angry of the Tuareg had long shown a predilection to hopping the border and escaping persecution, and seeking gainful employment, with international man of meddling Gaddafi in Libya. They got away from Mali, and Gaddafi got the services of several thousand determined exiles who were dependent on him for support. Or did, until he ended up getting captured and shot in a desert town by his own people. The new government of Libya indicated that they really weren't keen on having the various elements of Gaddafi's pet projects at raising African rebel groups hanging around, so the Tuareg, fully armed, had nothing better to do then go back to Mali and kick off a rebellion.
They immediately started winning, pushing the army of Mali out of several garrisons in the northern part of the country. I don't know why they were able to succeed exactly, but if I had to guess, I would guess that the army of Mali isn't very good at fighting people who fight back. That's not how the army sees it - they see it as a clear example of government incompetence, that they're losing because the government isn't giving them enough arms.
I'm not the only one sceptical of that - the Malian army has the exact same small arms that the rebels have, not to mention tanks, planes, helicopters, and all those other toys of modern war that the rebels definitely seem to lack. But this seems to be enough of an excuse that the Malian army has taken the time to attack the capital, overthrow the President, and suspend the constitution, blaming the failure on the war on a lack of equipment.
This fits a long-established pattern. If I were to be cynical, I would say that the army is terrified of the Tuareg either winning in the north or doing well enough to win political concessions from the current government, either way displacing the army from their position as sole armed power in the nation, and from the lucrative opportunities that entails. However, they're also aware that their soldiers don't perform particularly well when actually being shot at. Since the usual strategy of destroying the Tuareg civilian population might not work, their only hope of retaining their prime position is to invest in weapons that can kill the rebels while the rebels can't shoot back, either high-tech or long-range.
I think they're going to be disappointed. For a country with a government budget of less then a billion dollars total, for everything, they're going to find that new weapons, alone with the instructions to operate it, are expensive. Maybe they'll get more determined to fight as the Tuareg get further south. Maybe they'll be able to massacre civilians in the north. Maybe they'll buy some guns that make a lot of noise and scare off the rebels, that's worked before.
But the whole problem with Tuareg militants returning from Libya is now partially the west's fault. Given that, maybe we should take some responsibility. At least a statement against military coups in general might be nice, although perhaps unlikely given some of the West's past preferences...
The problem starts with the Tuareg rebellion in the north. There have always been Tuareg tribes in the northern areas of Mali, and they've always been a bit unhappy at being part of a country that doesn't seem to represent them. For many years the Tuareg existed in something of an uneasy peace with the dominant Mande people who made up the more southern portion of the country.
Unfortunately, that changed last year. The more militant and angry of the Tuareg had long shown a predilection to hopping the border and escaping persecution, and seeking gainful employment, with international man of meddling Gaddafi in Libya. They got away from Mali, and Gaddafi got the services of several thousand determined exiles who were dependent on him for support. Or did, until he ended up getting captured and shot in a desert town by his own people. The new government of Libya indicated that they really weren't keen on having the various elements of Gaddafi's pet projects at raising African rebel groups hanging around, so the Tuareg, fully armed, had nothing better to do then go back to Mali and kick off a rebellion.
They immediately started winning, pushing the army of Mali out of several garrisons in the northern part of the country. I don't know why they were able to succeed exactly, but if I had to guess, I would guess that the army of Mali isn't very good at fighting people who fight back. That's not how the army sees it - they see it as a clear example of government incompetence, that they're losing because the government isn't giving them enough arms.
I'm not the only one sceptical of that - the Malian army has the exact same small arms that the rebels have, not to mention tanks, planes, helicopters, and all those other toys of modern war that the rebels definitely seem to lack. But this seems to be enough of an excuse that the Malian army has taken the time to attack the capital, overthrow the President, and suspend the constitution, blaming the failure on the war on a lack of equipment.
This fits a long-established pattern. If I were to be cynical, I would say that the army is terrified of the Tuareg either winning in the north or doing well enough to win political concessions from the current government, either way displacing the army from their position as sole armed power in the nation, and from the lucrative opportunities that entails. However, they're also aware that their soldiers don't perform particularly well when actually being shot at. Since the usual strategy of destroying the Tuareg civilian population might not work, their only hope of retaining their prime position is to invest in weapons that can kill the rebels while the rebels can't shoot back, either high-tech or long-range.
I think they're going to be disappointed. For a country with a government budget of less then a billion dollars total, for everything, they're going to find that new weapons, alone with the instructions to operate it, are expensive. Maybe they'll get more determined to fight as the Tuareg get further south. Maybe they'll be able to massacre civilians in the north. Maybe they'll buy some guns that make a lot of noise and scare off the rebels, that's worked before.
But the whole problem with Tuareg militants returning from Libya is now partially the west's fault. Given that, maybe we should take some responsibility. At least a statement against military coups in general might be nice, although perhaps unlikely given some of the West's past preferences...