Small Island Covid Update.
This is a 'state of the Small Island' covid post. Mainly for my own record, but also because we are, again, doing out own thing and are therefore, unofficially, something of a test-bed for the rest of the world.
We are currently at the stage our health minister calls 'living with the virus'; borders open with no isolation or testing for the fully vaccinated arrivals, no isolation for the contacts of known positives*, no need for masks, everything open... and quickly rising infection rates.
*They are to do lateral flow tests for themselves as from yesterday.
However the good news is that although we currently have about 300 active cases (out of a population of around 85,500) none of them are in hospital and 37% are asymptomatic (also about 20% are in people who have recently been off-island, either locals who have been away, or those from the UK visiting).
We now have about 62% of the total population fully vaccinated, which is around 78% of the adults. So we are probably a good testing case for the effects of the vaccination programme on the level of illness; 52% of the new cases are in the 15 - 24 year old age range. None of the under 18s are currently vaccinated, and whilst 70% of the 18 - 24 year olds are now single vaccinated some were only a few days after their first jab when they developed symptoms, and almost none of them are double-jabbed yet. Only 12 positives of the current outbreak are in people who were fully vaccinated (2 doses + 2 weeks) when the outbreak began.
So it seems as if vaccination is reducing the number of cases by a lot in those who are fully protected, and reducing the severity in those of that group who do test positive, or in those who are partly protected. The main circulating infection is in the children and young adults who are unprotected due to their age.
There is some disagreement amongst the medical experts as to whether the current laissez faire attitude is the way to go, but the politicians feel that as long as there is no pressure on the hospital it is worth continuing.
There were problems with some places (such as a couple of local pharmacies) having a lot of staff in isolation as known contacts of a positive - for example one 14 yr-old tests positive, his 20 year old sister goes into isolation but then tests positive - the other 5 members of staff in the small pharmacy now have to isolate... by 7 days it is clear none of them are positive, but the shop has been shut for a week. So the new system is that they will continue to go to work, but test themselves 2 or 3 times over the 7 day period...
Goodness knows how this will work - but the rest of the world really should be watching to find out I guess!
D-d is one of the organisers of a major annual dinner next Friday - the Chief Minister, the Lieutenant Governor, various big names in finance and law ,are all due to attend. She points out that, with her track record, the chances are we will unexpectedly go into full lockdown on Thursday - or it will become a super-spreader event and she will be responsible for disrupting the workings of government, the legal system, and the financial sector all in one swoop :) (Realistically anyone over 30 who attends should be fully protected by then!)
We are currently at the stage our health minister calls 'living with the virus'; borders open with no isolation or testing for the fully vaccinated arrivals, no isolation for the contacts of known positives*, no need for masks, everything open... and quickly rising infection rates.
*They are to do lateral flow tests for themselves as from yesterday.
However the good news is that although we currently have about 300 active cases (out of a population of around 85,500) none of them are in hospital and 37% are asymptomatic (also about 20% are in people who have recently been off-island, either locals who have been away, or those from the UK visiting).
We now have about 62% of the total population fully vaccinated, which is around 78% of the adults. So we are probably a good testing case for the effects of the vaccination programme on the level of illness; 52% of the new cases are in the 15 - 24 year old age range. None of the under 18s are currently vaccinated, and whilst 70% of the 18 - 24 year olds are now single vaccinated some were only a few days after their first jab when they developed symptoms, and almost none of them are double-jabbed yet. Only 12 positives of the current outbreak are in people who were fully vaccinated (2 doses + 2 weeks) when the outbreak began.
So it seems as if vaccination is reducing the number of cases by a lot in those who are fully protected, and reducing the severity in those of that group who do test positive, or in those who are partly protected. The main circulating infection is in the children and young adults who are unprotected due to their age.
There is some disagreement amongst the medical experts as to whether the current laissez faire attitude is the way to go, but the politicians feel that as long as there is no pressure on the hospital it is worth continuing.
There were problems with some places (such as a couple of local pharmacies) having a lot of staff in isolation as known contacts of a positive - for example one 14 yr-old tests positive, his 20 year old sister goes into isolation but then tests positive - the other 5 members of staff in the small pharmacy now have to isolate... by 7 days it is clear none of them are positive, but the shop has been shut for a week. So the new system is that they will continue to go to work, but test themselves 2 or 3 times over the 7 day period...
Goodness knows how this will work - but the rest of the world really should be watching to find out I guess!
D-d is one of the organisers of a major annual dinner next Friday - the Chief Minister, the Lieutenant Governor, various big names in finance and law ,are all due to attend. She points out that, with her track record, the chances are we will unexpectedly go into full lockdown on Thursday - or it will become a super-spreader event and she will be responsible for disrupting the workings of government, the legal system, and the financial sector all in one swoop :) (Realistically anyone over 30 who attends should be fully protected by then!)