The vanity contest.
Let's assume for a moment that Newt Gingrich, egomaniacal old queen, will suddenly come down with a case of the Humbles and gracefully bow out of his campaign for more money and handjobs (he won't.)
Let's also assume that Ron Paul will retire Rosinante, sadly embrace Cisco in farewell, and let Mitt of the Dashing Smile and Excellent Coif have his tilt at the dragon (he won't, but he might decide to break off from the milling tides and tilt that windmill on his own mule.)
That would leave Frothy McVaginacam as the only "Peoples' Candidate" running ahead of the Moneyed Candidate, right? Hell, no.
Romney does not do well in the South because Southern Republicans are exactly what he is not: not wealthy, not educated, not former Boston and New York business executives with tons of inherited wealth and even more accumulated by buying and selling other people's livelihoods. They are also religious. Very, very religious. The only more-religious demographic in the country would be Southern black people, who by and large vote Democratic not on the basis of history, but on the basis of the white people vote Republican now. (Nixon was right.)
What does all of this mean? That Romney will lose in the South no matter what, right up until he's nominated, when he has a strong chance of winning the South in the general election, as long as the black and white liberal vote can be adequately suppressed (or simply kept in the minority, which it mainly is.) It does not matter a fig who the Other Candidate may be, Southern Republicans who don't reside in Florida will vote for him. Or her. Or it. A three-legged yellow dog could beat Romney in the South, up until the general election, at which point a six-legged yellow orangutan could wander into town in a straw hat and beat President Obama at the polls in Pascagoula and Decatur. (it will be an actual race in Peoria and Jackson)
It's fun that Santorum and Gingrich and Paul (well, not Paul) are staying in the horse race with Romney by accumulating all these attrition delegates in the South, but they're not cutting into his lead, and even assuming one or two of them gives in to inevitability and throws his delegates to one of the other Not-Romneys (which won't happen) none of them is going to beat Romney where it matters: in Tampa.
Let's also assume that Ron Paul will retire Rosinante, sadly embrace Cisco in farewell, and let Mitt of the Dashing Smile and Excellent Coif have his tilt at the dragon (he won't, but he might decide to break off from the milling tides and tilt that windmill on his own mule.)
That would leave Frothy McVaginacam as the only "Peoples' Candidate" running ahead of the Moneyed Candidate, right? Hell, no.
Romney does not do well in the South because Southern Republicans are exactly what he is not: not wealthy, not educated, not former Boston and New York business executives with tons of inherited wealth and even more accumulated by buying and selling other people's livelihoods. They are also religious. Very, very religious. The only more-religious demographic in the country would be Southern black people, who by and large vote Democratic not on the basis of history, but on the basis of the white people vote Republican now. (Nixon was right.)
What does all of this mean? That Romney will lose in the South no matter what, right up until he's nominated, when he has a strong chance of winning the South in the general election, as long as the black and white liberal vote can be adequately suppressed (or simply kept in the minority, which it mainly is.) It does not matter a fig who the Other Candidate may be, Southern Republicans who don't reside in Florida will vote for him. Or her. Or it. A three-legged yellow dog could beat Romney in the South, up until the general election, at which point a six-legged yellow orangutan could wander into town in a straw hat and beat President Obama at the polls in Pascagoula and Decatur. (it will be an actual race in Peoria and Jackson)
It's fun that Santorum and Gingrich and Paul (well, not Paul) are staying in the horse race with Romney by accumulating all these attrition delegates in the South, but they're not cutting into his lead, and even assuming one or two of them gives in to inevitability and throws his delegates to one of the other Not-Romneys (which won't happen) none of them is going to beat Romney where it matters: in Tampa.