Tim, you may have nailed the math on this one.
But thus far, none of the Not-Romneys with a prayer (I don't count Cain, Bachmann, or Paul, despite the fact that he is still inexplicably campaigning for Goldline CEO or whatever) has dropped out and thrown his support behind one of the other Not-Romneys.
Which, to my eyes, looks like a Romney win-by-a-hair, and a scuffle at the convention, and possibly a newfound humility for Nominee Romney in September, though that seems like a wrenching transformation from the vertiginous purview of Meh Wednesday. If there is one thing Candidate Romney does badly, it's run from behind. (he's not all that great at running in the lead, but he at least seems modestly comfortable with the role)
So, moving on to a more interesting question: who's the VP? McDonnell (of Virginia) is probably out; he's drawn too much fire, and VPs are supposed to lay down covering fire for the candidate, not draw fire to him. One of the less-hated Not-Romneys (like Govbassador Huntsman) might be a possibility, but most non-incumbent candidates pick a presently-serving politician, like Joe Biden or Dick Nixon.
The long list is long, but the short list has to consist of at least Jon Huntsman, Susana Martinez (a wise Latina! and a Republican in a dark-bluish-purple state!) Mitch Daniels (a favorite non-candidate) and Rick Perry (from a very large state which is as red it ever gets.) Senators and Congressmen have to include Lamar Alexander (R-TVA,) Saxby Chambliss (GA--probably voted for Newt, but who cares? on Armed Services Committee,) John Cornyn (Dick-TX,) Lindsey Graham (R-Doesn't Want the Job,) and Kay Bailey Hutchison (three-term Senator, no-term Governor from Texas, which is as previously mentioned, a very big state.)
Talk amongst yourselves.
Which, to my eyes, looks like a Romney win-by-a-hair, and a scuffle at the convention, and possibly a newfound humility for Nominee Romney in September, though that seems like a wrenching transformation from the vertiginous purview of Meh Wednesday. If there is one thing Candidate Romney does badly, it's run from behind. (he's not all that great at running in the lead, but he at least seems modestly comfortable with the role)
So, moving on to a more interesting question: who's the VP? McDonnell (of Virginia) is probably out; he's drawn too much fire, and VPs are supposed to lay down covering fire for the candidate, not draw fire to him. One of the less-hated Not-Romneys (like Govbassador Huntsman) might be a possibility, but most non-incumbent candidates pick a presently-serving politician, like Joe Biden or Dick Nixon.
The long list is long, but the short list has to consist of at least Jon Huntsman, Susana Martinez (a wise Latina! and a Republican in a dark-bluish-purple state!) Mitch Daniels (a favorite non-candidate) and Rick Perry (from a very large state which is as red it ever gets.) Senators and Congressmen have to include Lamar Alexander (R-TVA,) Saxby Chambliss (GA--probably voted for Newt, but who cares? on Armed Services Committee,) John Cornyn (Dick-TX,) Lindsey Graham (R-Doesn't Want the Job,) and Kay Bailey Hutchison (three-term Senator, no-term Governor from Texas, which is as previously mentioned, a very big state.)
Talk amongst yourselves.