The numbers after Super Tuesday

[cos]

Enough states have voted that the end is getting clearer.

TL;DR: Probably President Clinton. Well, it was already the most probably outcome before any primaries happened, but it's getting kinda close to near-certain now. Here's how I see the numbers...

Comments

[pseydtonne]

Begging your pardon, because otherwise I loved this write-up. Your political analysis keeps getting better and is rooted in a good ground-up process -- from people canvasing to patterns arising therefrom.

Nevertheless I live in Oklahoma. I voted on Super Tuesday. I did not attend a caucus, as there weren't any. I heard NPR mention once or twice that Oklahoma would have a caucus. However we didn't, at least not in Tulsa County (the second most populous county in the state). Both Democrats and Republicans filled out ballot cards and fed them into the scanner.

(I was very happy to fill out a Dem-only ballot. The GOP one had santorum on it.)

So no, Sanders winning Oklahoma was not a caucus result. It was Sanders's folks going door to door and building the network -- I saw that. It was Sanders speaking in downtown Tulsa at the BOK Center and having to open a second room in the hall for the overflow. He came here and people were psyched. Sanders in Tulsa was a verification of the art-scene and increasingly hipster nature of Tulsa versus bigger but duller OKC.

Also: Oklahoma is not a Southern state. It wasn't a slave state. It didn't secede from the Union. It wasn't even a state until 1907. It has Southern influence, but it's more like a Canada for Texas. It's a Midwestern state, with a lot of southwestern and Native American influence. It's red, but it's not Stars and Bars.

[cos]

Oooh, you're right! That paragraph was supposed to say "Colorado", not "Oklahoma". He had a nice solid win in the Oklahoma primary but the really big wins were CO and MN. I'll correct the post.

Regarding the P.S., though: I don't see anywhere I even slightly implied that Oklahoma (or Colorado, once I correct the post) is southern. Clinton is sweeping the south with big wins; Neither Oklahoma nor Colorado is part of that, obviously. If Sanders had actually won a southern state, that would've been huge news and figured really prominently in my post.

[pseydtonne]

Oh, you're right. Sorry. I misread the Southern part. My bad.