The numbers after Super Tuesday

[cos]

Enough states have voted that the end is getting clearer.

TL;DR: Probably President Clinton. Well, it was already the most probably outcome before any primaries happened, but it's getting kinda close to near-certain now. Here's how I see the numbers...

Comments

[cos]

I Sanders beats Clinton in NY that would indeed be a big deal and change the race significantly, but Massachusetts tells me he won't. I should've just ignored the polls and gone based on what I said I was going by, which is the voting patterns evident from actual voting results so far. Midwestern states should be a little bit better for Sanders than MA, which the rest of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England states should be a little worse for him, and in NY Clinton has the additional home state effect. Michigan was a surprise based on the polls, but totally consistent with what I would predict without those polls, and Clinton winning NY is consistent with that.

Superdelegates will eventually close ranks around whoever is going to get a majority of pledged delegates. Continue ignoring them or what they're doing now or what they might do after the next few primaries.

Clinton is very unlikely to really stumble. But if she does, and it's during the primaries, it'd be a really good thing to have Sanders close behind her, because then he can win. But like I said, very unlikely.

> I think the only question is whether Rubio calls it quits before or after FL

That *was* the question before Super Tuesday. I think Super Tuesday's results mean that he will stick it out through Florida. Since Cruz is trying his best to prevent Rubio from winning Florida, a Trump win seems very likely. Cruz is trying the same thing against Kasich in Ohio, too, increasing the likelihood of a Trump win there.

I will bet on Trump losing to Clinton because he's so toxic to minority voters and has such sky-high negatives with the general public.