Oxford Analytica - PROSPECTS 2011: East Africa and the Great Lakes
PROSPECTS 2011: East Africa and the Great Lakes - click link for full article.
Eastern DRC. In addition, EAC members will be affected by continued insecurity in the eastern DRC:
FDLR. The ethnic Hutu Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) remain a serious threat, despite having been significantly weakened by a series of recent military offensives. Throughout 2010, the group continued to carry out frequent small-scale attacks against civilian targets across a large part of North Kivu. The group will remain under pressure. In October, FDLR Executive Secretary Callixte Mbarushimana was arrested in France on an ICC warrant. In November, the defence secretaries of DRC and Rwanda announced a new cooperation agreement (see CONGO-KINSHASA: Eastern insecurity dents Kabila image - August 18, 2010).
LRA. Further north, Joseph Kony's Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) has also been under sustained pressure from joint operations between the Ugandan, Sudanese and Congolese militaries (see CENTRAL AFRICA: Region struggles to counter LRA threat - October 20, 2010). However, the group has adopted a new 'zonal' command-and-control structure -- with individual commanders operating over a much wider area than ever before (from north-east Congo to Darfur, in western Sudan). Attacks have stepped up, mostly targeting civilians. There is evidence that the group may be trying to re-establish ties with their former backer, Khartoum.
Congolese elections. The dynamics of conflict and security throughout eastern DRC (and the wider Great Lakes region) are likely to alter significantly in 2011, in the run-up to the Congolese presidential and parliamentary elections in November. Incumbent President Joseph Kabila has staked his authority on delivering security, and on defending ongolese 'sovereignty'. In line with this, he has put pressure on the UN to withdraw all peace-keeping troops from the country. However, Kabila will have to allocate many more resources to security sector reform in the east, and he will have to exert much greater political pressure upon local authorities in the region, if the Congolese Army is to assert control ahead of the presidential election (see CONGO-KINSHASA: Prospects dim for security reform - May 17, 2010).
CONCLUSION: Political tensions will increase around elections in Uganda and the DRC, although the latter also faces a continued insecurity challenge in the east. Burundi's political transition is in jeopardy, as this year's election debacle continues to play out. With the exception of Burundi, economic integration and consolidation will continue in the EAC, buoyed by expectations of strong growth.