My Official Scenario for November 4th

[coasterjj]

So of course I had to do one of those predictor maps for the election on YahooNews. There are some reports that Obama is sliding ahead in MIssouri and North Carolina, but I'm not gonna bet on him pulling those states off as of right now (their spread is only by 10ths of a percentile), but notice that I colored Florida and Ohio blue, since he's ahead by 3% in Florida and 4% in Ohio (Gallup). Nevada is also blue because Obama is up by 3, and he fared well there during the primary debates. Also note, if he loses Florida, Ohio, and Nevada but the rest of my scenario matches, he still wins the election, but it's much more of a squeaker (286 to 252). He HAS to get Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia, and New Hampshire as the most basic foundation of swing states, and venture out from there.

So I think it will look something like this, unless something drastically changes in between now and the election:

Yahoo Political Dashboard Mapmaker