I had dinner with my pal
lonestaryankee last night down in Tacoma. As I was leaving the restaurant, I couldn't help but almost drive off the road at the price of gas at the station accross the street. And at a Chevron no less, not Arco.
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Obviously a new mideast conflict will spike energy prices higher, and other things (such as a major devaluation of the dollar for example, and this may happen) would have other effects too..
I really don't think traders have any real control over the market.
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Knowing about the surge and the eventual crash wasn't hard though... it was clear to many, the only question was when, and the precise details.
With oil, it's been artificially high for quite some time (traders expecting it to be higher and so buying it, and so it becomes higher).. right now it's artificially low for similiar reasons. Ultimately it must go dramatically higher because worldwide energy needs are increasing but supply is decreasing... only a large-scale worldwide shift to other energy sources can change that, and that takes time and significant up-front investment (which, so far, hasn't happened, but may yet happen).
So, enjoy your cheap oil while you have it :)
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