Disjointed Post that Accumulated Over Three Days
Posting this morning from the bus on the way TO work this morning. Usually there isn't room to sit and type (sometimes I don't even get a seat), but so far so good today. I don't have a lot of ground to cover, which is good because it's an express bus
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I think your theories on "flopping the vulnerable nuts" are pretty off base. Again, I want to reiterate that I think you're just about spot-on with everything else I've read, but this is just plain wrong, for a number of reasons. Lets use the hand you're talking about, as it is a fantastic example.
I'm going to guess that this wasn't a highly raised hand pre-flop, since you're in there with 34s. Good hand to take a flop with now and again, but I can guess this wasn't a re-raised preflop situation. Ok, so what draws are you vulnerable to at this point? Hearts, of course. Board pairing (on a made set) is another, and the unlikely 78 or 47 is in there too. Everything else and you're AOK, and you're still a hearty favorite against those hands. There is absolutely NO NEED to not value bet this hand here.
Look at the range of hands that are drawing dead/almost that will give you a decent amount of action here. Someone might've been going for the check/raise with AA or KK on the flop and missed...they might play back to a pot sized bet here on that kind of a board. There's certainly no need to chase them out at this point. You might even get a caller with top pair, or raised back by two pair...both situations you'd really enjoy happening at this point. There's quite a bit of action here that you DO want.
Now, obviously, you're talking about raising out the heart draw, since you really can't expect the check raise to scare a set out of this one. It could happen, but not likely. Hell, down at PL50, I would expect 2 pair to come along for the ride. Furthermore, any heart draw with any sort of straight possiblity is getting odds to call you, regardless of the check raise. 2-1 with a flush/gutshot is damn nice, unless I put you exactly on 34, and even then, it's a reasonable enough call, especially when your check raise announces to the world that if I hit, I'm getting paid off. Besides, in this situation, if one early person calls your check/raise, every drawing hand is getting odds anyway. 5 handed, there's just no reason to do this.
I think you played this hand correctly, up until the 20 buck bet into the 36 dollar pot. 5 handed to the turn, with a heart draw on the board, and now the board pairs and the heart hits too? Run. Check/fold. No reason to fight the good fight, since you just hit the worst card in the deck. Every draw just came in, time for your 3rd or 4th best hand to leave. Be thankful that it only cost you 6 bucks on the flop.
Especially 5 handed....you don't need to check/raise for leverage here. The pot will build high enough to stack any ill-advised draw with a blank on the turn. When the Js comes instead of the 5h, you can get a reasonable amount of cash in there at a nice edge...so why push the flop? Also, you made a statement that you can get stuck with a hand that is "too good to lay down" if you don't protect your monsters. Come on...laying that junk down is the mark of a decent poker player. Try as we may, we can't eliminate luck or post-flop play from the game, so why try in these situations?
Lets say you do check/raise. All of a sudden, everyone folds except the guy who bet out the pot on the button. He's now still getting 36 for 18 on his call. 2-1 on a flush draw is kinda crappy, for sure. However, Implied odds make it close. If he's on nice overcards with his hearts, or God forbid 78h, it's a no brainer. Can you honestly re-raise the pot there, and fold to a heart? Your table image will be shot to hell, and people will be blasting you on every scare card in the deck for the rest of the night, even if it's a good laydown. Aggressively protecting a hand/laying it down later to a scare card is a recipe for disaster. However, by smooth calling, you give yourself an escape if your "vulnerable nuts" get counterfeit, and retain enough mystery about your hand to get the action you'd like on the turn.
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