Probability and other related things
1. D fed me Order of the Stick (which I'm still in the process of reading), and as a result I've been playing a lot of NetHack. (I'm really bad at it -- the sort of careful thinking-through of potential options when that leocrotta shows up isn't my forte, and I die a lot.) NetHack... can be a sort of interesting laboratory for studying probability, if you play enough. Sometimes you get that wand of wishing on an early level. And sometimes you get the master mind flayer.
2. I'm really grateful that I know and understand elementary statistics and can apply Bayes' Rule correctly. I suppose it doesn't actually make my life any easier, really, but I like knowing what I'm getting into.
3. It doesn't actually stop me from occasional stupid emotionally-fallacious thoughts about probability, although it does mean that I can hit myself on the head when I catch myself doing this. God, I think human beings are wired not to understand probability.
4. Via
metaphortunate, Che Fece ... Il Gran Rifiuto (Constantine Cavafy):
For some people the day comes
when they have to declare the great Yes
or the great No. It’s clear at once who has the Yes
ready within him; and saying it,
he goes from honor to honor, strong in his conviction.
He who refuses does not repent. Asked again,
he’d still say no. Yet that no-the right no-
drags him down all his life.
It has stuck in my head, I think, because it is true.
2. I'm really grateful that I know and understand elementary statistics and can apply Bayes' Rule correctly. I suppose it doesn't actually make my life any easier, really, but I like knowing what I'm getting into.
3. It doesn't actually stop me from occasional stupid emotionally-fallacious thoughts about probability, although it does mean that I can hit myself on the head when I catch myself doing this. God, I think human beings are wired not to understand probability.
4. Via
metaphortunate, Che Fece ... Il Gran Rifiuto (Constantine Cavafy):
For some people the day comes
when they have to declare the great Yes
or the great No. It’s clear at once who has the Yes
ready within him; and saying it,
he goes from honor to honor, strong in his conviction.
He who refuses does not repent. Asked again,
he’d still say no. Yet that no-the right no-
drags him down all his life.
It has stuck in my head, I think, because it is true.