Eight is the new Five
Warning: this is a post about my biased hopespredictions for next year's volleyball debut. Turn away now if you don't want to read about every probable scenario that I've dreamt up to include Myuto as part of the debut. Then again, you must have some love for him if you're on my journal so please hold off closing this page or opening a new tab. I also welcome you to weigh in on what your thoughts are on the subject.
Some fans dread this quadrennial traditional that JE has with putting together a group of strategically random boys, most of which with limited experience as a junior, and then sending them off into the scary entertainment industry. Some fans are more than ready to see a new group emerge from the junior bucket of lanky boys with swoopy hair and to bask in the excitement of possibly seeing their fav as one of the lucky few. But without a doubt, for or against this tradition, fans alike all have some sort of expectation for what will happen that year. Will there even be a debut? How many members? How big of an age gap? Are they going to go for an even younger average age? Will my fav quit if he doesn't make this debut? Is my fav too old to make the cut? etc etc All very understandable questions to come from a junior fan. All is which I'll attempt to address in this post.
Now I need to start off by admitting that I've always thought it was weird that the whole concept and ultimately tradition of these debuts stems from volleyball of all things and all sports. I don't know how big volleyball actually is in Japan but I imagine it's either on par, if not less popular, than soccer and baseball. But as I've become numb to Japan's weird ways over the years since being captured by its culture and entertainment, I've stop questioning things that most non-Japanese fanatic would ask off the bat. So here it is, here I ask, why the Volleyball World Cup?
Reason One: there's guarantee. In 1977, 12 years after the World Cup first started and hosted in Poland, the competition was permanently transferred to be hosted in Japan. 18 years later, V6 happened. 16 years after that, it's still happening. This makes me think that as long as the host country doesn't change and JE management don't change, there will always be a volleyball debut.
Reason Two: publicity. V6 were the official supporters of the Volleyball World Cup in 1995 and debuted with their song Music for the People which was the image song for the competition. This gave them a reason to appear on news and variety shows in order to promote the Volleyball World Cup as well as themselves. Their song was played at the competition and was used as the background music for anything related to the Volleyball World Cup.
Reason Three: the Japanese value traditions. Continuing on from reason two - the premise of the debut worked. And when something works, why not do it again? Why reinvent the wheel to something that everyone now expects to happen? What if there wasn't a volleyball debut in 2015? I for one will become a husk of a human being wondering what I did wrong as a fan to deserve the deprivation of a new group.
Bonus reason: The "Kitagawa is so old" assumption. Kitagawa Johnny is so old that he can no longer come up with anything new to wow us and has stuck with the safe choice of continuing a successful concept OR Kitagawa Johnny is so old that his forgotten that his already debuted a group for the Volleyball World Cup and every 4 years he does the same thing thinking it's a new idea OR Kitagawa Johnny is so old that he has in fact already passed away and his descendants in the company are trying to cover up this fact by continuing the volleyball debuts.
Now let's move on before I have the chance to re-read what I've wrote to see whether I've done a good job of answering my own question or not.
My HopesPredictions
It's the weekend. It's windy outside. The only things going on in my city today are a gypsy fair and Richard O'Brien (Mr Riff Raff himself) leading a pack of Rocky Horror fans down the CBD doing the Time Warp. All of which are very good reasons for me to stay home and do nothing today. That was exactly what I was doing until I saw the January 2015 scans of TV Guide.
Gorgeous, I know.
All I could think when I saw this was, if Santa could give me one thing for Christmas it would be for this group of eight (key word, remember this number) to be the volleyball debut next year. I confess that I have a soft spot for knitted Christmas sweaters, I do. The Christmassier the better so this photo shoot just ticked all the right boxes for me. But the most important factor here, obviously, are the boys themselves. This line-up just works for me on so many levels. Especially the level that has Myuto on it.
Jinguji - without a doubt in my mind this boy will debut. Next year, next month, tomorrow. This is just a kid that will debut one day so why not just debut him for the Volleyball World Cup? His a good all-rounder and personally I don't think he'll stick around in JE any longer if he doesn't debut next year. It's use him or lose him.
Iwahashi - I don't think Genki's looked better than the first time I noticed him on Music Station backdancing for ABC-Z but maybe that's just me and I prefer short hair. Anyway, this boy just embodies a modern day Johnny's. His consistent and someone you can cheer for and like Jinguji, his someone who will no doubt debut.
Kishi - he has come such a long way. My biggest fear for him back in 2011 was that he'd fall under the dance umbrella and never gain any commercial popularity. Boy was I wrong. He undoubtedly killed it in his role in Kinkyori Renai and his now the lead in the next midnight series! Who would've thought?
Aran - back during the days of ジャPAニーズHi!, I had trouble distinguishing between him and Genta. No idea why, there were probably just too many new faces back then and they both kind of looked similar. But his really grown into a pretty boy hasn't he? (Not to say Genta hasn't) Lead singer in Cloud5, lead role in Kinkyori Renai, scandal with a HKT girl. His definitely been the topic of conversation in the past year and I can only see him going upwards and onwards from here.
Miyachika - I still wonder why he hasn't been pushed as much as Jinguji, Genki, Kishi and Aran. He has a unique look (in a good way), is funny, incredible dancer and everyone likes him. For his generation of juniors, I think his presence is necessary and I can't imagine him not debuting with this group.
Matsukura - I'm not 100% sure if this is actually true or not but for whatever reason I have this image of Matsukura as someone who really loves JE. He's the type who'll alway think about the group and that'll be his drive to work harder. I think his absolutely fantastic and like Nino will still be able to play a highschooler into his thirties.
Genta - did you see him at Sexy Zone's 3rd Anniversary event? This boy hasn't even reached his peak yet. He has one of the best and most natural smiles in JE and will be a big loss to not debut. He's the dark horse of the group and will definitely be popular in a few years after his had more opportunities to talk and build his confidence.
Myuto - if I had to pick an odd one out from this line-up it would be my baby Myuto. The reason is obvious. Next year he'll celebrate his tenth year with JE, his the oldest of the group and his never been grouped with them before. But to be completely honest, I think is group is very apt for him.
He made some big mistakes this year and a big chunk of his not so glorious personal life was exposed but for some reason his still with us. Even though he did nothing illegal like underage smoking like Morimoto Ryutaro, I think universally we can agree that if the scandal was 100% true than what he did was much worst than anything any JE has ever been kicked out for. This leaves me to believe that JE must have a reason to keep him and in some way has been protecting him. Yes his been around for a long time but if I'm to be honest with myself, Myuto isn't the kind of junior that is indispensible and what's one less junior out of the whole junior bucket? The fact that he hasn't been dismissed or suspended and has continued his activities as if nothing has happened makes me think maybe he is indispensible. Maybe they do have plans for him that they can't have ruined by this scandal? As his fan I have to believe that and I do believe that.
If you look at the trend for the volleyball debuts the average age has gotten younger and younger, but they've got to draw the line somewhere. There's no meaning in debuting minors if they can't work. We won't get a full Sexy Zone at the New Year Countdowns until Mari is 18 (that's 7 years after their debut). They think Mari and Sou is cramping the older threes style and leaving them out of "sexy" singles. There are more and more rivals as Exile Tribe pumps out more and more boy groups. Exile is fast becoming a powerhouse of their own and JE can no longer monopolise the boyband industry and no longer have the luxury of debuting awkward boys for us to watch grow and develop. All the growth should be happening during the junior stage and they need to be releasing strong, experienced groups like Kisumai. The above eight may still lack experience compared to when Kisumai debuted but they sure as hell have more overall experience and achievement under their belts than previous volleyball groups.
I might be painfully wrong but I don't see JE debuting a group with a big age gap or a group of youngens like Hashimoto Ryo, Inoue Mizuki, or any of the other chibi's that's been featured more prominently lately. Personally I think JE is still saving them for Twenty Twenty. Whether they'll keep that name or not, I have no doubt that JE will be doing something for the 2020 Olympics and they'll need a group of experienced boys who'll be 20 or younger at that time. I won't be surprised if everyone who was in the junior performance of Ashita ni Mukatte on the 2014.11.12 episode of SC has already been grouped for Twenty Twenty.
Now for those of you few (or more likely none) who have read until here you may be asking, "but what about Jesse? Hokuto? Taiga? Have you forgotten about them because you saw one photo shoot where Myuto's been grouped with the next generation aces and think you finally have some leverage to convince yourself he'll debut with them and forgot about the other competing juniors?" Well yes, I did at first but for good reason. Bakaleya have probably been the most consistent unofficial junior group since BIShadow. In my mind, they are a group. The original Bakaleya6 along with all the other add-ons they gained and lost over the past 2 years. They will debut. Either in their Bakaleya6+extra entirety or a filtered version of JE's favourite, but most of them will debut. But not for volleyball. They don't need something gimmicky like the Volleyball World Cup to be the reason for them to be formed since they're already a group in most people's eyes. They can get a legit KAT-TUN/Kisumai type of debut. Hey, you never know, maybe JE may even want to go down the AKB48/Nogizaka46 route and debut them at the same time as the volleyball group so there's rivary to motivate them to work harder. The ideas not that far-fetched if you've seen Shark 2 and the drama between Cloud5 and BTS. JE may even want to milk the idea for all it's worth and may not even be subtle about it.
Eight. This is the new magic number for boybands. Why? Stereo Kicks. For those of you who aren't following The X Factor UK, in the season that is currently airing 8 boys who auditioned separately have been grouped into one 8 member boyband called Stereo Kicks (much like One Direction but with 3 more boys). They've done incredibily well in the competition despite having been in the bottom 2 twice but are now in the top 7. I think it's important at this stage to show you what the boys look like.
Gorgeous, I know.
I want to make it clear that there is no scientific proof that eight is the enigmatic number that will grant any boyband with eight members in it success but I just think eight could work. And for my 2000 word prediction sake, I hope it works. Stereo Kicks probably won't win X Factor. The eight that I'm hopingpredicting to debut for the Volleyball World Cup (how many times have I typed this today), might not.
But I sure as hell hope they do.
Some fans dread this quadrennial traditional that JE has with putting together a group of strategically random boys, most of which with limited experience as a junior, and then sending them off into the scary entertainment industry. Some fans are more than ready to see a new group emerge from the junior bucket of lanky boys with swoopy hair and to bask in the excitement of possibly seeing their fav as one of the lucky few. But without a doubt, for or against this tradition, fans alike all have some sort of expectation for what will happen that year. Will there even be a debut? How many members? How big of an age gap? Are they going to go for an even younger average age? Will my fav quit if he doesn't make this debut? Is my fav too old to make the cut? etc etc All very understandable questions to come from a junior fan. All is which I'll attempt to address in this post.
Now I need to start off by admitting that I've always thought it was weird that the whole concept and ultimately tradition of these debuts stems from volleyball of all things and all sports. I don't know how big volleyball actually is in Japan but I imagine it's either on par, if not less popular, than soccer and baseball. But as I've become numb to Japan's weird ways over the years since being captured by its culture and entertainment, I've stop questioning things that most non-Japanese fanatic would ask off the bat. So here it is, here I ask, why the Volleyball World Cup?
Reason One: there's guarantee. In 1977, 12 years after the World Cup first started and hosted in Poland, the competition was permanently transferred to be hosted in Japan. 18 years later, V6 happened. 16 years after that, it's still happening. This makes me think that as long as the host country doesn't change and JE management don't change, there will always be a volleyball debut.
Reason Two: publicity. V6 were the official supporters of the Volleyball World Cup in 1995 and debuted with their song Music for the People which was the image song for the competition. This gave them a reason to appear on news and variety shows in order to promote the Volleyball World Cup as well as themselves. Their song was played at the competition and was used as the background music for anything related to the Volleyball World Cup.
Reason Three: the Japanese value traditions. Continuing on from reason two - the premise of the debut worked. And when something works, why not do it again? Why reinvent the wheel to something that everyone now expects to happen? What if there wasn't a volleyball debut in 2015? I for one will become a husk of a human being wondering what I did wrong as a fan to deserve the deprivation of a new group.
Bonus reason: The "Kitagawa is so old" assumption. Kitagawa Johnny is so old that he can no longer come up with anything new to wow us and has stuck with the safe choice of continuing a successful concept OR Kitagawa Johnny is so old that his forgotten that his already debuted a group for the Volleyball World Cup and every 4 years he does the same thing thinking it's a new idea OR Kitagawa Johnny is so old that he has in fact already passed away and his descendants in the company are trying to cover up this fact by continuing the volleyball debuts.
Now let's move on before I have the chance to re-read what I've wrote to see whether I've done a good job of answering my own question or not.
My HopesPredictions
It's the weekend. It's windy outside. The only things going on in my city today are a gypsy fair and Richard O'Brien (Mr Riff Raff himself) leading a pack of Rocky Horror fans down the CBD doing the Time Warp. All of which are very good reasons for me to stay home and do nothing today. That was exactly what I was doing until I saw the January 2015 scans of TV Guide.
Gorgeous, I know.
All I could think when I saw this was, if Santa could give me one thing for Christmas it would be for this group of eight (key word, remember this number) to be the volleyball debut next year. I confess that I have a soft spot for knitted Christmas sweaters, I do. The Christmassier the better so this photo shoot just ticked all the right boxes for me. But the most important factor here, obviously, are the boys themselves. This line-up just works for me on so many levels. Especially the level that has Myuto on it.
Jinguji - without a doubt in my mind this boy will debut. Next year, next month, tomorrow. This is just a kid that will debut one day so why not just debut him for the Volleyball World Cup? His a good all-rounder and personally I don't think he'll stick around in JE any longer if he doesn't debut next year. It's use him or lose him.
Iwahashi - I don't think Genki's looked better than the first time I noticed him on Music Station backdancing for ABC-Z but maybe that's just me and I prefer short hair. Anyway, this boy just embodies a modern day Johnny's. His consistent and someone you can cheer for and like Jinguji, his someone who will no doubt debut.
Kishi - he has come such a long way. My biggest fear for him back in 2011 was that he'd fall under the dance umbrella and never gain any commercial popularity. Boy was I wrong. He undoubtedly killed it in his role in Kinkyori Renai and his now the lead in the next midnight series! Who would've thought?
Aran - back during the days of ジャPAニーズHi!, I had trouble distinguishing between him and Genta. No idea why, there were probably just too many new faces back then and they both kind of looked similar. But his really grown into a pretty boy hasn't he? (Not to say Genta hasn't) Lead singer in Cloud5, lead role in Kinkyori Renai, scandal with a HKT girl. His definitely been the topic of conversation in the past year and I can only see him going upwards and onwards from here.
Miyachika - I still wonder why he hasn't been pushed as much as Jinguji, Genki, Kishi and Aran. He has a unique look (in a good way), is funny, incredible dancer and everyone likes him. For his generation of juniors, I think his presence is necessary and I can't imagine him not debuting with this group.
Matsukura - I'm not 100% sure if this is actually true or not but for whatever reason I have this image of Matsukura as someone who really loves JE. He's the type who'll alway think about the group and that'll be his drive to work harder. I think his absolutely fantastic and like Nino will still be able to play a highschooler into his thirties.
Genta - did you see him at Sexy Zone's 3rd Anniversary event? This boy hasn't even reached his peak yet. He has one of the best and most natural smiles in JE and will be a big loss to not debut. He's the dark horse of the group and will definitely be popular in a few years after his had more opportunities to talk and build his confidence.
Myuto - if I had to pick an odd one out from this line-up it would be my baby Myuto. The reason is obvious. Next year he'll celebrate his tenth year with JE, his the oldest of the group and his never been grouped with them before. But to be completely honest, I think is group is very apt for him.
He made some big mistakes this year and a big chunk of his not so glorious personal life was exposed but for some reason his still with us. Even though he did nothing illegal like underage smoking like Morimoto Ryutaro, I think universally we can agree that if the scandal was 100% true than what he did was much worst than anything any JE has ever been kicked out for. This leaves me to believe that JE must have a reason to keep him and in some way has been protecting him. Yes his been around for a long time but if I'm to be honest with myself, Myuto isn't the kind of junior that is indispensible and what's one less junior out of the whole junior bucket? The fact that he hasn't been dismissed or suspended and has continued his activities as if nothing has happened makes me think maybe he is indispensible. Maybe they do have plans for him that they can't have ruined by this scandal? As his fan I have to believe that and I do believe that.
If you look at the trend for the volleyball debuts the average age has gotten younger and younger, but they've got to draw the line somewhere. There's no meaning in debuting minors if they can't work. We won't get a full Sexy Zone at the New Year Countdowns until Mari is 18 (that's 7 years after their debut). They think Mari and Sou is cramping the older threes style and leaving them out of "sexy" singles. There are more and more rivals as Exile Tribe pumps out more and more boy groups. Exile is fast becoming a powerhouse of their own and JE can no longer monopolise the boyband industry and no longer have the luxury of debuting awkward boys for us to watch grow and develop. All the growth should be happening during the junior stage and they need to be releasing strong, experienced groups like Kisumai. The above eight may still lack experience compared to when Kisumai debuted but they sure as hell have more overall experience and achievement under their belts than previous volleyball groups.
I might be painfully wrong but I don't see JE debuting a group with a big age gap or a group of youngens like Hashimoto Ryo, Inoue Mizuki, or any of the other chibi's that's been featured more prominently lately. Personally I think JE is still saving them for Twenty Twenty. Whether they'll keep that name or not, I have no doubt that JE will be doing something for the 2020 Olympics and they'll need a group of experienced boys who'll be 20 or younger at that time. I won't be surprised if everyone who was in the junior performance of Ashita ni Mukatte on the 2014.11.12 episode of SC has already been grouped for Twenty Twenty.
Now for those of you few (or more likely none) who have read until here you may be asking, "but what about Jesse? Hokuto? Taiga? Have you forgotten about them because you saw one photo shoot where Myuto's been grouped with the next generation aces and think you finally have some leverage to convince yourself he'll debut with them and forgot about the other competing juniors?" Well yes, I did at first but for good reason. Bakaleya have probably been the most consistent unofficial junior group since BIShadow. In my mind, they are a group. The original Bakaleya6 along with all the other add-ons they gained and lost over the past 2 years. They will debut. Either in their Bakaleya6+extra entirety or a filtered version of JE's favourite, but most of them will debut. But not for volleyball. They don't need something gimmicky like the Volleyball World Cup to be the reason for them to be formed since they're already a group in most people's eyes. They can get a legit KAT-TUN/Kisumai type of debut. Hey, you never know, maybe JE may even want to go down the AKB48/Nogizaka46 route and debut them at the same time as the volleyball group so there's rivary to motivate them to work harder. The ideas not that far-fetched if you've seen Shark 2 and the drama between Cloud5 and BTS. JE may even want to milk the idea for all it's worth and may not even be subtle about it.
Eight. This is the new magic number for boybands. Why? Stereo Kicks. For those of you who aren't following The X Factor UK, in the season that is currently airing 8 boys who auditioned separately have been grouped into one 8 member boyband called Stereo Kicks (much like One Direction but with 3 more boys). They've done incredibily well in the competition despite having been in the bottom 2 twice but are now in the top 7. I think it's important at this stage to show you what the boys look like.
Gorgeous, I know.
I want to make it clear that there is no scientific proof that eight is the enigmatic number that will grant any boyband with eight members in it success but I just think eight could work. And for my 2000 word prediction sake, I hope it works. Stereo Kicks probably won't win X Factor. The eight that I'm hopingpredicting to debut for the Volleyball World Cup (how many times have I typed this today), might not.
But I sure as hell hope they do.