I am not a doctor.

[catsidhe]

But here are my thoughts on Covid-19, because "thought" seems to be a vanishing rare thing on that topic:

• Q: Is it really that dangerous?
  A: We don't know yet. It's likely that its total mortality rate is going to end up lower than you might expect, because many, most, maybe even almost all cases are mild to unnoticeable. If you've got a mild sniffle, or no symptoms at all (as has also been reported), then you're not going to go report to the ED unless you're already there or you're really cautious. The mortality rate looks high, at the moment, because the people being reported are the ones who are really sick, and they are more likely to die. But they're being reported because they're really sick, so that skews the population you're measuring. But this is still early days, and we haven't had time to collect and analyse the data. But we will eventually have a pretty good idea what's going on, because
  
• Q: Is it going to be endemic?
  A: It already is endemic. Covid-19 is already out in the world, and it's not going to go away. It's got a long, symptom-free, contagious incubation period, so by the time it was noticed, it was already outside China and spreading. It's now thoroughly endemic in China, Iran, Italy, Japan, Korea, and the USA.
  
• Q: Why hasn't it spread so quickly into the US?
  A: It almost certainly is already endemic in the US, and has been for a long time (as this sort of thing goes). It's just that the US doesn't have a Health System, it has fifty-mumble of them (fifty states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, plus the Federal system.
  Except... even those aren't systems, so much as weakened bureaucracies trying to keep health insurance companies and their associated service delivery locations (also known as "hospitals") under some sort of co-ordination, with no noticeable success.
  And the Federal system is under the control of a demented sociopath, who is more concerned that the numbers make him look good than that the situation is actually under control, and that he has flunkies fighting for his approval than that there is anyone actually competent in control of anything. Do not expect any useful, or even correct, information out of the White House. The sorts of people who will be getting information out there in the US system will be doing so at Li Wenliang levels of personal risk.
  
• Q: If it's already out there, then aren't the quarantines and travel restrictions just a waste of time then?
  A: Yes and no. Yes, in that it's coming anyway. In fact, it's already here. If there's been travel somewhere, they should expect to have been exposed. No, it's not a waste of time, because that's what the authorities are buying: time. Time to build up information, time to determine treatment regimes, time to get emergency measures in place, time to spread out the initial wave of cases, so they don't all turn up at the ED at once.
  
• Q: So I should be worried?
  A: Yes, but probably not as much as you think you should. It's looking to be worse than the usual flu, but probably not 1919 worse. And if you're relatively young, then you might not even notice it. But the older you are, the worse it seems to be, so you probably should be worried for your elderly parents or grandparents, and for god sake don't go to a retirement village or nursing home if you've got a sniffle.
  
• Q: Do I need to hoard gather supplies?
  A: No.
  
• Q: So why can't I get toilet paper or hand sanitiser?
  A: "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it." (- Agent K, Men in Black)

This is not medical advice. See your doctor if pain persists. Do not exceed recommended dose.

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