Emergent statehood
I am asked to comment on Putin's suggestions that Poroshenko is a partner http://russian.rt.com/article/47826 (in Russian) for the negotiations and that it is necessary to negotiate http://russian.rt.com/article/47815 (in Russian) on the statehood of the south-east. And somewhat later Peskov announced http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2014/08/31/n_6440177.shtml (in Russian) that in fact this is purely a matter of negotiations of Poroshenko with Zaharchenko and Plotnitsky.
After the well-known permutations in the DPR it became clear that it the plan of splitting Ukraine and creating the Greater Transnistria is the one that will be implemented. That is, Ukraine won't be dismantled (no matter how much I want it), but it will be divided (along new internal border lines). After the fighting of the second half of August it became obvious that Novorossia as a state will exist on the political map as yet another 'internationally unrecognized' state entity (obviously, the USA and the EU won't recognize it). The borders of this state will be determined by future movements of the fighting front lines and by negotiations between Moscow and Kiev, as well as in the process of consultations of the Kremlin with Washington and Brussels. At some point, Novorossia representatives will have to be allowed to join the negotiations, although it is clear that they won't define the basic parameters of splitting Ukraine.
These proposals were made in the past, when in June there were consultations with Akhmetov and Kolomoisky on the topic of the future of Donbass. The recent public announcements are both a part of non-binding official rhetoric in the spirit of "we are not here, we look at this as outsiders" and also rumors that are emanating from 'behind the scenes consultations' about the future of Novorossia.
Under the current conditions of "seasonal discounts in the military surplus store" (n.b. this includes both the materiel captured from the Ukrainian army and other purchases) the position of Novorossia for future negotiations about the status of the new state is much better - the junta troops are demoralized and a number of major military defeats clearly indicate that a military victory is impossible for the junta. The forthcoming large-scale offensive with decisive goals that is being prepared by the army of Novorossia is most likely to be an indicator of Novorossia moving beyond the limits of the DPR and the LPR - there are certain prerequisites for this. At the same time, apparently the sides have already agreed, or are in the process of agreeing on a decision to eliminate Kolomoisky altogether. The collapse of punitive batallions under Ilovaysk, the flight http://real-info.info/ukraine/kolomojskij-sdajot-mariupol-zam-komandira-karatelej-batalona-azov (in Russian) of the punitive battalion "Dnepr-1" from Mariupol to Dnepropetrovsk and a long running informational feud between Poroshenko and Kolomoisky may well be a part of the already achieved agreements about the imminent disappearance of Kolomoisky and his accomplices from the political stage.
The main obstacle for a collusion with the goal of dividing Ukraine is the position of the USA, which is interested in the continuation of the current war, and also the position of the Ukrainian fascists, who don't even consider the possibility of any agreement with the "separatists" and even more so with Russia. Although Poroshenko can dump the fascists in the next encirclements, the position of the USA is much harder to deal with (the American resident Nalivaychenko is a direct supervisor of the fascist "Right Sector"), Poroshenko clearly doesn't know what to do, because the negotiations for cutting off only the DPR and the LPR but keeping everything else could have been a decent bargain back in July, when the offensive near Lugansk ran out of steam. However the junta continued to persist in its attempts to crush the rebellion in Novorossia by purely military means . And now it faces approximately the same choice, but under conditions that are now much worse for them. The USA may remove Poroshenko as easily as they put him in. Poroshenko knows this, and therefore continues to wage war that is becoming increasingly suicidal for him and for the remnants of Ukraine. In principle, this element of the 'lack of negotiating capacity' of the junta only pleases me - the longer the war will continue, the less will be left of Ukraine after the war ends.
We are waiting for a new offensive and for new victories of Novorossia army. But the negotiations are unavoidable in any case, so the later they start the better for us.
Original article: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1758520.html (in Russian)
Kudos to ilyamuromets63 and niku for their graciously contributed corrections to the text of this translation.
