Threat for Crimea
Briefly on the topic of the two potential threats for Crimea, which the junta is trying to create.
1. Military.
In the recent days the movement of army convoys to the border with the Russian Federation in Crimea was detected, MRLS BM-21 "Grad", SAM SA-8 "Osa", and army trucks. Tanks weren't noticed yet, except for the antient T-55 and BTR-70 that are dug in the rear of the junta's positions already in May. For the large-scale offensive operation these forces are certainly insufficient - the only combat-ready unit of the Nikolayev paratroopers, which was stationed there in Spring, is now all out fighting in Donbass. Right now it is mostly the border guards, the Naziguard, and joint army units of low loyalty who are stationed there.
The Russian military group that is deployed near Simferopol and near Dzhankoy is noticeably superior to the spotted forces of the junta, both in quantity and in quality. Since March Crimea is covered with a dense umbrella of air defense (S-300 batteries of the latest revisions are deployed under Simferopol), the Russian grouping has overwhelming aerial superiority with the ability of rapid deployment of additional forces.
Even given the attempts to start active offensive operations in the direction of Chongar and Armyansk, the junta from the military point of view is capable of at most breaking through the checkpoint and attempting to enter the operational room in the Northern Crimea, where the advancing forces will be simply eliminated by airstrikes, and the Russian mechanized units will easily transition to counter-offensive. Therefore, the only meaning of pulling forces to Perekop is to organize shelling of the Russian territory as well as organizing cover in the case of the decision of Russian entry into the war.
Overall, these relocations pose no direct threat to Crimea.
2. Tartar.
Somewhat more dangerous are further manipulations by the junta with Crimean-Tartar radicals from Majlis. After the blessing from Obama and Kerry, as well as after a visit in Dnepropetrovsk to meet Mr. Kolomoisky, Mr Dzhemilev and Co. started to create organizational structures abroad, which must lie in the foundation of the political leadership of Crimean-Tartar radicals after Majlis is banned, and its leaders will be either arrested or will be deported from Crimea. The ban for entering Crimea for Mr. Chubarov was quite expected, negotiating with him was unsuccessful, and by himself he already became a part of the plans for unsettling the situation in Crimea, where Chubarov and Dzhemilev have to carry out political cover, the infrastructure for which will be deployed for the money from Mr. Kolomoisky in Genichesk and Kherson. Simultaneously, again funded by Mr. Kolomoisky, the "Crimea" battalion will be deployed, based on Crimean-Tartar radicals, the militants of "Hizb ut-Tahrir" and the Crimean Banderovites. While the training will be performed (actions in mountains and forests, sniper training, explosives and mines training, guerrilla tactics), the cargo with weapons and individual militants will be attempted to be deployed for setting up organized undercover organization in Crimea. It should be based on the surviving agents and cells of the SBU and the local Crimean-Tartar radicals.
The main goal of these activities is to launch a low-intensity terrorist war against Russian authorities and Russian military personnel on the Crimean territory. The media picture in which the "proud Tartar people fights against the occupiers" should become the consequence of this, and the political leaders in exile support this struggle.
As a result - increased foreign political pressure on the Russian Federation, sanctions for "crimes against humanity" and so forth, which won't be hard to arrange on the background of the typical guerrilla war with its unavoidable excesses. At the same time, the Crimean militants will get weapons and explosives from the Ukrainian army, which is being accurately pulled towards Perekop.
Overall, there is apparent activation of the complex of military and political measures with the goal of escalating hostilities on the Crimean territory.
Original article: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1658432.html (in Russian)