Amnesty is impossible
As it was expected, by the next day after signing, the Minsk agreements started to fall apart.
1. The RF denied http://www.echo.msk.ru/news/1492526-echo.html (in Russian) Poroshenko's announcements of imminent release of Savchenko in the spirit of this being more of wishful thinking by the junta and the EU and Russia never gave any such promises.
2. The junta, using the mouth of its minister of foreign affairs Klimkin, said http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2351431 (in Russian) that the amnesty for the leaders of the DPR and the LPR is impossible, which directly contradicts one of the points in the Minsk agreements. Also the junta denies the presence of any obligations on the status of Donbass.
3. The EU confirmed http://top.rbc.ru/politics/13/02/2015/54dd2aec9a79475c523efc2e (in Russian) that the sanctions against the RF won't be canceled and even more, additional sanctions will be passed, which had to be enacted after February 16th (enlarging personal sanction lists against the citizens of the DPR, the LPR, and the RF).
4. The USA and the EU effectively put on Russia the responsibility for the implementation of the Minsk agreements and only in this case may consider the possibility of canceling some of the sanctions.
5. The transfer of "Mistrals" http://nokstv.ru/news/russia/events/12825 (in Russian) to the RF is also put in direct correspondence with the implementation of the Minsk agreements and there are no conditions for the transfer for now according to France.
6. Nobody is writing off the question of Crimea http://www.mk.ru/politics/2015/02/12/ssha-ne-schitayut-vozvrashhenie-kryma-pervoocherednoy-zadachey-dlya-snyatiya-sankciy-v-otnoshenii-rf.html (in Russian), it is simply delayed until Russia fully implements the Minsk agreements. That is, in the case of a complete implementation of the Minsk agreements, the question of Crimea will inevitably be put on the agenda.
Overall, we observe the same picture that we saw after the agreements of September 5th and 19th. Russia was appointed to be the main responsible party for strict implementation of the Minsk agreements and in the case of their disruption it will be precisely the RF who will be announced by the USA and the EU to be guilty of disrupting the peace process. The junta already received the indulgence for their violations, because the USA already announced that they think that it is laughable http://vz.ru/news/2015/2/12/729402.html (in Russian) to think about the possibility of punishing the junta http://baltnews.ee/mir/20150213/1013587759.html (in Russian) for the disruption of these agreements.
Overall, at most they will manage to pull off a temporary truce and a prisoner exchange out of this.
The situation for the junta near Debalcevo still sucks: the attacks of yesterday and today failed, so the obvious could be concealed no longer.
Original article: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2046646.html (in Russian)