Further further further covid
This is an assorted collection of follow up thoughts to the previous post
What might happen
Whatever happens, I don't gain that much from knowing what's going to happen. Last Friday it was important to know, because if people needed to self-isolate with no support from the government, we needed to act. Now, whether the disease is miraculously contained or runs through most of the population, there's not much else planning I can do. I just need to stay alert to the trajectory.
So in the short term, my focus should be on (a) normal life and keeping up online socialising to keep my brain going (b) detaching my brain from constant updates on the situation so it doesn't fry (c) immediate needs for our household, and any ways I can safely help others if needed.
Government reaction
In retrospect I think I should have been able to guess that Johnson would converge to taking it seriously enough to deter criticism that he was ignoring it, while avoiding anything that might look like over-reacting (ie the measures needed).
Like, whether or not the government DID have a sensible plan about not trying to contain it. What is the chance that, like Italy or China, hospitals would start to get overwhelmed, but the government would stick to their guns anyway? Whether that move would have been genius or villainy, what's the chance that, if China or Italy's government weren't ruthless enough to ride out the negative publicity from that point, how was Johnson going to?
So in retrospect, I think I should have predicted: "Despite a lot of clever ideas being thrown around, the government would react exactly like Italy but 14 days behind. Slowly escalating measures too slowly, until they have to panic and take drastic measures which still might not be enough after weeks of going too slowly." Probably they will never take measures which haven't been tweeted at them two days before.
Remember, there's a lag. Even if every person in the UK was quarantined tomorrow, the situation in two weeks will be equivalent to Italy today (who have shut down the whole country except hospitals, food production, and food distribution and China are still saying "you need to do more"). Although it would then get better rather than (as is more likely) continuing to get worse.
How I feel
I went through all the "what do I need to do in the short term" last week. Now I'm a combination of "stressing about lots of small practical things about the next few days that aren't urgent, because my brain can't distinguish" and "worrying about what society will look like in six months time."
China IS containing this. After about 3 months. One day with no new cases except people entering the country. Cautiously relaxed some restrictions in Wuhan (I hear?). But they don't have an exit strategy. Epidemiologists don't seem to expect any country to be able to keep it suppressed forever. Is everything they did pointless?
And reading descriptions about how bad it can be for previously healthy people is hopefully good for having people take it seriously. And no worse than what I already knew in theory. But also worries me a lot if we go through the "half the country have it" phase.
Where this is going
One possibility is, we won't be able to contain it, at best slow it a bit, and it will run through the population. That will be horrific unless something massively changes. But hopefully it will go back to "now the disease is mostly gone" not "it happens every few years". The "herd immunity" strategy but maybe not on purpose.
One possibility is, we overestimated the hospitalisation rate and can ramp up ventilators more than expect, and it runs through everyone in a year or so but hospitals keep up. I don't see how the numbers can make this work unless we do a lot more than we do now. The "flatten the curve" strategy, except that it needs to be flattened 10x or 100x not 2x.
One possibility is, we delay by months and have time for better tests, better high tech and low tech equipment for hospitals, more supply of masks, disinfectant, information etc for people working atm, figuring out which measures work and which don't. But maybe this is false hope.
I don't know what the right answer is. But I wish our government would copy the governments that are handling it better, rather than the governments which are handling it worse :(
I've no idea what I'd do if I was in charge. I think, start with more extreme measures to buy time and then relax them once people took them seriously, rather than faffing around. The disruption is going to happen anyway. I'd also throw attention and resources into making sure vulnerable people get food deliveries now, and nursing homes got live in staff in short order, rather than expecting it to happen at some point. But I take the point there is no good strategy :(
You can also comment at https://jack.dreamwidth.org/1118212.html using OpenID.
comments so far.
What might happen
Whatever happens, I don't gain that much from knowing what's going to happen. Last Friday it was important to know, because if people needed to self-isolate with no support from the government, we needed to act. Now, whether the disease is miraculously contained or runs through most of the population, there's not much else planning I can do. I just need to stay alert to the trajectory.
So in the short term, my focus should be on (a) normal life and keeping up online socialising to keep my brain going (b) detaching my brain from constant updates on the situation so it doesn't fry (c) immediate needs for our household, and any ways I can safely help others if needed.
Government reaction
In retrospect I think I should have been able to guess that Johnson would converge to taking it seriously enough to deter criticism that he was ignoring it, while avoiding anything that might look like over-reacting (ie the measures needed).
Like, whether or not the government DID have a sensible plan about not trying to contain it. What is the chance that, like Italy or China, hospitals would start to get overwhelmed, but the government would stick to their guns anyway? Whether that move would have been genius or villainy, what's the chance that, if China or Italy's government weren't ruthless enough to ride out the negative publicity from that point, how was Johnson going to?
So in retrospect, I think I should have predicted: "Despite a lot of clever ideas being thrown around, the government would react exactly like Italy but 14 days behind. Slowly escalating measures too slowly, until they have to panic and take drastic measures which still might not be enough after weeks of going too slowly." Probably they will never take measures which haven't been tweeted at them two days before.
Remember, there's a lag. Even if every person in the UK was quarantined tomorrow, the situation in two weeks will be equivalent to Italy today (who have shut down the whole country except hospitals, food production, and food distribution and China are still saying "you need to do more"). Although it would then get better rather than (as is more likely) continuing to get worse.
How I feel
I went through all the "what do I need to do in the short term" last week. Now I'm a combination of "stressing about lots of small practical things about the next few days that aren't urgent, because my brain can't distinguish" and "worrying about what society will look like in six months time."
China IS containing this. After about 3 months. One day with no new cases except people entering the country. Cautiously relaxed some restrictions in Wuhan (I hear?). But they don't have an exit strategy. Epidemiologists don't seem to expect any country to be able to keep it suppressed forever. Is everything they did pointless?
And reading descriptions about how bad it can be for previously healthy people is hopefully good for having people take it seriously. And no worse than what I already knew in theory. But also worries me a lot if we go through the "half the country have it" phase.
Where this is going
One possibility is, we won't be able to contain it, at best slow it a bit, and it will run through the population. That will be horrific unless something massively changes. But hopefully it will go back to "now the disease is mostly gone" not "it happens every few years". The "herd immunity" strategy but maybe not on purpose.
One possibility is, we overestimated the hospitalisation rate and can ramp up ventilators more than expect, and it runs through everyone in a year or so but hospitals keep up. I don't see how the numbers can make this work unless we do a lot more than we do now. The "flatten the curve" strategy, except that it needs to be flattened 10x or 100x not 2x.
One possibility is, we delay by months and have time for better tests, better high tech and low tech equipment for hospitals, more supply of masks, disinfectant, information etc for people working atm, figuring out which measures work and which don't. But maybe this is false hope.
I don't know what the right answer is. But I wish our government would copy the governments that are handling it better, rather than the governments which are handling it worse :(
I've no idea what I'd do if I was in charge. I think, start with more extreme measures to buy time and then relax them once people took them seriously, rather than faffing around. The disruption is going to happen anyway. I'd also throw attention and resources into making sure vulnerable people get food deliveries now, and nursing homes got live in staff in short order, rather than expecting it to happen at some point. But I take the point there is no good strategy :(
You can also comment at https://jack.dreamwidth.org/1118212.html using OpenID.
comments so far.