Derby Future Book Favorite
Undefeated Curlin is the 7-2 favorite in the Kentucky Derby Future Book wagering, with Street Sense second favorite at 6-1 odds. (The actual Derby post time favorite will be determined right before the race runs, this is just the early book favorite wagering.) Curlin has won all three of his races by wide margins in smashing, front running style. Good. I'm happy to see some early speed in the Derby, which will set the race up nicely for Street Sense and other late runners.
The shaky part of Curlin is that he has only three lifetime starts. Not since Regret in 1915 has a horse won the Kentucky Derby off of only three previous races. I believe most wise Derby aficionados will continue to believe in Street Sense, who has proven his class and ability over and over against the best of his generation. Curlin has not beaten any horse of note, and he has never raced at Churchill Downs.
Undefeated, blazing speed always dazzles, it can even be blinding. I'll stay clear-eyed and take a classy horse like Street Sense as my Derby pick. The odds are much longer than 7-2 that Curlin is really, truly a horse who can take on all challengers at Churchill Downs going a mile and a quarter after only three lifetime starts and win on the lead.
It could happen, but I'm betting it doesn't.
The shaky part of Curlin is that he has only three lifetime starts. Not since Regret in 1915 has a horse won the Kentucky Derby off of only three previous races. I believe most wise Derby aficionados will continue to believe in Street Sense, who has proven his class and ability over and over against the best of his generation. Curlin has not beaten any horse of note, and he has never raced at Churchill Downs.
Undefeated, blazing speed always dazzles, it can even be blinding. I'll stay clear-eyed and take a classy horse like Street Sense as my Derby pick. The odds are much longer than 7-2 that Curlin is really, truly a horse who can take on all challengers at Churchill Downs going a mile and a quarter after only three lifetime starts and win on the lead.
It could happen, but I'm betting it doesn't.