Local elections
In the aftermath of the local elections (and AV referendum), I've seen a number of people claiming a narrative that goes, roughly speaking:
zOMG, the Conservatives are successfully using the LibDems as scape-goats for the cuts. Aren't they clever?
And this explains the plummet in the LibDem vote and the generally much better Conservative result. (Obviously, there are pockets that are quite different - but generally speaking.)
I don't buy it.
At the general election, the Conservatives were quite strident in their support for rapid cuts in public spending. The majority of people voting for them would have been aware of it. I imagine that a lot of them voted for them because of it. Thus the Conservatives don't need to pin the blame for the cuts on the Lib Dems - they're simply doing what they said they'd do.
One thing that has happened, which has been useful to the Conservatives, is that the media is all over 'cuts'. They weren't, in my experience in the run up to the elections, so keen to talk about the VAT increase - which could be taken as a Conservative 'broken promise'. But 90% of the stories I saw were almost all on cuts - closing libraries, cutting hours, cutting SureStart, merging hospitals, losing teachers, losing social care etc. The tax rise stories were largely about possible council tax rises - any outrage over VAT had long subsided.
And that's what, I think, explains the difference in Lib Dem and Conservative outcomes. Tory supporters haven't deserted the Conservatives in any numbers, because the Conservatives are - roughly speaking - doing what their voters wanted them to do when they voted for them in 2010. Lib Dems voters see the reverse - they wanted a party that would use some targeted tax rises to protect key public services and the poor, and the narrative is about cuts, cuts and more cuts. (Truth one way or the other is less important in terms of voting intentions than the way it's pieced together as a whole by the media and therefore by voters.)
Blame isn't the right prism for this. Tory voters had expectations of the Tories which are largely being seen to be met. Lib Dem voters are seeing their expectations dashed.
zOMG, the Conservatives are successfully using the LibDems as scape-goats for the cuts. Aren't they clever?
And this explains the plummet in the LibDem vote and the generally much better Conservative result. (Obviously, there are pockets that are quite different - but generally speaking.)
I don't buy it.
At the general election, the Conservatives were quite strident in their support for rapid cuts in public spending. The majority of people voting for them would have been aware of it. I imagine that a lot of them voted for them because of it. Thus the Conservatives don't need to pin the blame for the cuts on the Lib Dems - they're simply doing what they said they'd do.
One thing that has happened, which has been useful to the Conservatives, is that the media is all over 'cuts'. They weren't, in my experience in the run up to the elections, so keen to talk about the VAT increase - which could be taken as a Conservative 'broken promise'. But 90% of the stories I saw were almost all on cuts - closing libraries, cutting hours, cutting SureStart, merging hospitals, losing teachers, losing social care etc. The tax rise stories were largely about possible council tax rises - any outrage over VAT had long subsided.
And that's what, I think, explains the difference in Lib Dem and Conservative outcomes. Tory supporters haven't deserted the Conservatives in any numbers, because the Conservatives are - roughly speaking - doing what their voters wanted them to do when they voted for them in 2010. Lib Dems voters see the reverse - they wanted a party that would use some targeted tax rises to protect key public services and the poor, and the narrative is about cuts, cuts and more cuts. (Truth one way or the other is less important in terms of voting intentions than the way it's pieced together as a whole by the media and therefore by voters.)
Blame isn't the right prism for this. Tory voters had expectations of the Tories which are largely being seen to be met. Lib Dem voters are seeing their expectations dashed.