Laurent vs. Regent
Warning: Super long post is super long.
After reading the most recent chapter, along with the requisite "Oh my GOD, is this happening?!" moments, there was also this little nagging voice in my mind going, "But something doesn't make sense about all of this--I feel like there's a hole somewhere."
So I decided to map out the entire sequence of back-and-forth between Laurent and the Regent, in order to make things fit in my mind better...and in doing so came to two tentative questions/conclusions. Since if there were ever a group of people that's read the story more closely than me, they're probably here, I decided to post.
Under the cut is the entire scheming sequence, and the questions/conclusions I drew.
[start]
Incident in the bath happens. Laurent has Damen whipped; as punishment, Laurent is stripped of his holdings with the exception of Acquitart, and his guard number is restricted.
Damen begs Laurent to free the slaves. Laurent speaks with Torveld of Patras regarding the matter of the slaves. He uses the slaves as part to an agreement between him and Patras, the existence of which is to be confirmed with the messenger in the inn. He does this because he wanted to see “what [his uncle] would do”, but in doing so he also “forced his hand.” (Quotes C-22).
At the hunt after the matter of the slaves is decided, the regent attempts to murder Laurent by poisoning his horse. This is the first time that the regent attempts to kill Laurent outright; Laurent did not expect it (Quote C-22). Torveld departs.
Soldiers under orders from the Regent and bearing Akielon weapons attempt to kill Laurent. Damen and Laurent kill the soldiers. Laurent is poisoned, and is thus unable to keep Damen from escaping.
Damen is captured. Laurent goes before the Council and lies: the soldiers were attempting to kill Damen, and failed; Damen fled because he is “difficult and rebellious” (Quote C-10). Laurent is accused of feeling overly friendly towards Akielos because he is trying to save Damen, and is forced into accepting border duty. (If Laurent did not lie: war would be declared on Akielos. Laurent would presumably be pressured into attending the front, but how exactly this would occur is left unclear.)
Laurent is sent towards Ravenel with Damen, his guard, and a larger group of mercenaries. Govart is Captain and is under orders to keep things as disorganized as possible.
Damen warns Laurent of the dangers of controlling Govart as Captain. Laurent sends a messenger to Patras.
Laurent sets Govart up, defeats him in a duel, and has him run out of the company. He leaves Govart alive for some unspecified reason (C-16). Using Govart’s departure as an excuse, Laurent gives Damen and Jord two weeks to help him bring the company together as a team.
The previous messenger to Patras' horse is found alone, indicating that the messenger was interrupted mid-route. Laurent goes to the town and visits a (different) messenger from Patras, whom he informs "we will wait for you at Ravenel" (C-17B). Soldiers under the Regent are aware of Laurent’s arrival, and attempt to locate him and the messenger, but ultimately fail. Damen discovers the double-threat against Laurent's life.
Traitors try to stage an uprising in camp. An ambush is planned. The measures fail due to the new company cohesion and forewarning about the attack from Damen.
Laurent receives a raider delegate and makes an agreement with Halvik: when the group that attacks an Akielon town comes out into the open, the Halvik’s raiders will capture them (in exchange for a portion of the men, and all the weapons, which they may use to raid Akielon but not Rabat). Furthermore, Halvik will capture the Regent’s messengers riding from the east (those warning about the attack at Hellay).
The Regent’s raider group attacks an Akielon town. Akielons respond by razing the Rabatian town of Breteau, causing calls for War with Akielon. Laurent, Damen, and the rest of the company arrive at Ravenel. Laurent has Damen scout out troop levels within Ravenel.
The company visits the carnage at Breteau. Laurent and Damen leave the town to find the group of raiders bought by the regent-spying an Akielon military company lead by Makedon along the way-and as Laurent predicted end up captured by them. Halvik and her group come in per the previous agreement, capturing the raiders. The plan is to force them to testify against the Regent.
The regent sends a message to Touars, condemning Laurent of bribing the (male) raiders and conspiring with Akielos; when Touars comes to capture Laurent at Hellay, Laurent reveals the Patran force.
Touars retreats for an hour; Laurent and Damen prepare for the strike at Ravenel.
[to be continued]
Firstly--is there anything I missed/misinterpreted here? I left out the Aimeric arc intentionally, because I'll be covering that a little bit below.
Secondly--looking at this, does anybody else think that the Regent has possibly already anticipated the inclusion of the Patran troops in Laurent's forces? I kind of do, for a couple reasons:
The event that sets this entire thing in real motion is the initial deal with the slaves. As I mentioned above, Laurent admits in chapter twenty-two that this deal with the slaves "forced his uncle's hand", and is what prompted the poisoned horse. But what exactly is sinister/would force the Regent's hand about sending the Akielon slaves away? Nothing in itself. But Laurent using them to buy a security agreement with Patras? That's very risky for the Regent.
Added to this evidence is the fact that he sent soldiers after the Patran messenger to try and keep him from getting back to Patras. The regent HAS to know about the agreement. And knowing about the agreement, there's no way he wouldn't take steps to try and up-end it.
As such, I'm trying to think in ways he could have miscalculated so that he wouldn't predict this--but I can't think of any. He could have not taken steps after the messenger (ie assumed the messenger would be stopped), but the Regent's too smart to do that. He wouldn't let the border lords just depend on word from the hill scouts, either--too easy for them to be captured. Finally, I don't think he'd just hedge his bets with the battle in Hellay, either--he's tried and failed to kill Laurent too many times not to have a back-up plan, at least in my mind, unless there was literally no time to implement one(since I didn't look at the amount of time passing between chapters, I don't know how viable this excuse is).
Finally: if there is a plan, I think Arran is in on it. He's been acting as the Regent's hands in the region, most noticeably through Aimeric (It makes sense that Arran told Aimeric of the new plan regarding the clan-rider-hostages when the company stopped in Ravenel). If your active hands don't know what the ultimate plan is, you are in trouble. And of all the men, he seems the most calm about the appearance of the Patran riders (though admittedly he isn't described or say much).
So...am I totally off base with all of this?
(The tin-foil-hat wearing/drama-loving part of me is going: THE REGENT MADE A DEAL WITH MAKEDON'S ARMY AGAINST LAURENT, AND THEN DAMEN WILL HAVE TO RIDE IN SINGLE-HANDED AND REVEAL HIMSELF AS THE TRUE AKIELON PRINCE TO STOP THEM, but of course that is ridiculous, lol.)
After reading the most recent chapter, along with the requisite "Oh my GOD, is this happening?!" moments, there was also this little nagging voice in my mind going, "But something doesn't make sense about all of this--I feel like there's a hole somewhere."
So I decided to map out the entire sequence of back-and-forth between Laurent and the Regent, in order to make things fit in my mind better...and in doing so came to two tentative questions/conclusions. Since if there were ever a group of people that's read the story more closely than me, they're probably here, I decided to post.
Under the cut is the entire scheming sequence, and the questions/conclusions I drew.
[start]
Incident in the bath happens. Laurent has Damen whipped; as punishment, Laurent is stripped of his holdings with the exception of Acquitart, and his guard number is restricted.
Damen begs Laurent to free the slaves. Laurent speaks with Torveld of Patras regarding the matter of the slaves. He uses the slaves as part to an agreement between him and Patras, the existence of which is to be confirmed with the messenger in the inn. He does this because he wanted to see “what [his uncle] would do”, but in doing so he also “forced his hand.” (Quotes C-22).
At the hunt after the matter of the slaves is decided, the regent attempts to murder Laurent by poisoning his horse. This is the first time that the regent attempts to kill Laurent outright; Laurent did not expect it (Quote C-22). Torveld departs.
Soldiers under orders from the Regent and bearing Akielon weapons attempt to kill Laurent. Damen and Laurent kill the soldiers. Laurent is poisoned, and is thus unable to keep Damen from escaping.
Damen is captured. Laurent goes before the Council and lies: the soldiers were attempting to kill Damen, and failed; Damen fled because he is “difficult and rebellious” (Quote C-10). Laurent is accused of feeling overly friendly towards Akielos because he is trying to save Damen, and is forced into accepting border duty. (If Laurent did not lie: war would be declared on Akielos. Laurent would presumably be pressured into attending the front, but how exactly this would occur is left unclear.)
Laurent is sent towards Ravenel with Damen, his guard, and a larger group of mercenaries. Govart is Captain and is under orders to keep things as disorganized as possible.
Damen warns Laurent of the dangers of controlling Govart as Captain. Laurent sends a messenger to Patras.
Laurent sets Govart up, defeats him in a duel, and has him run out of the company. He leaves Govart alive for some unspecified reason (C-16). Using Govart’s departure as an excuse, Laurent gives Damen and Jord two weeks to help him bring the company together as a team.
The previous messenger to Patras' horse is found alone, indicating that the messenger was interrupted mid-route. Laurent goes to the town and visits a (different) messenger from Patras, whom he informs "we will wait for you at Ravenel" (C-17B). Soldiers under the Regent are aware of Laurent’s arrival, and attempt to locate him and the messenger, but ultimately fail. Damen discovers the double-threat against Laurent's life.
Traitors try to stage an uprising in camp. An ambush is planned. The measures fail due to the new company cohesion and forewarning about the attack from Damen.
Laurent receives a raider delegate and makes an agreement with Halvik: when the group that attacks an Akielon town comes out into the open, the Halvik’s raiders will capture them (in exchange for a portion of the men, and all the weapons, which they may use to raid Akielon but not Rabat). Furthermore, Halvik will capture the Regent’s messengers riding from the east (those warning about the attack at Hellay).
The Regent’s raider group attacks an Akielon town. Akielons respond by razing the Rabatian town of Breteau, causing calls for War with Akielon. Laurent, Damen, and the rest of the company arrive at Ravenel. Laurent has Damen scout out troop levels within Ravenel.
The company visits the carnage at Breteau. Laurent and Damen leave the town to find the group of raiders bought by the regent-spying an Akielon military company lead by Makedon along the way-and as Laurent predicted end up captured by them. Halvik and her group come in per the previous agreement, capturing the raiders. The plan is to force them to testify against the Regent.
The regent sends a message to Touars, condemning Laurent of bribing the (male) raiders and conspiring with Akielos; when Touars comes to capture Laurent at Hellay, Laurent reveals the Patran force.
Touars retreats for an hour; Laurent and Damen prepare for the strike at Ravenel.
[to be continued]
Firstly--is there anything I missed/misinterpreted here? I left out the Aimeric arc intentionally, because I'll be covering that a little bit below.
Secondly--looking at this, does anybody else think that the Regent has possibly already anticipated the inclusion of the Patran troops in Laurent's forces? I kind of do, for a couple reasons:
The event that sets this entire thing in real motion is the initial deal with the slaves. As I mentioned above, Laurent admits in chapter twenty-two that this deal with the slaves "forced his uncle's hand", and is what prompted the poisoned horse. But what exactly is sinister/would force the Regent's hand about sending the Akielon slaves away? Nothing in itself. But Laurent using them to buy a security agreement with Patras? That's very risky for the Regent.
Added to this evidence is the fact that he sent soldiers after the Patran messenger to try and keep him from getting back to Patras. The regent HAS to know about the agreement. And knowing about the agreement, there's no way he wouldn't take steps to try and up-end it.
As such, I'm trying to think in ways he could have miscalculated so that he wouldn't predict this--but I can't think of any. He could have not taken steps after the messenger (ie assumed the messenger would be stopped), but the Regent's too smart to do that. He wouldn't let the border lords just depend on word from the hill scouts, either--too easy for them to be captured. Finally, I don't think he'd just hedge his bets with the battle in Hellay, either--he's tried and failed to kill Laurent too many times not to have a back-up plan, at least in my mind, unless there was literally no time to implement one(since I didn't look at the amount of time passing between chapters, I don't know how viable this excuse is).
Finally: if there is a plan, I think Arran is in on it. He's been acting as the Regent's hands in the region, most noticeably through Aimeric (It makes sense that Arran told Aimeric of the new plan regarding the clan-rider-hostages when the company stopped in Ravenel). If your active hands don't know what the ultimate plan is, you are in trouble. And of all the men, he seems the most calm about the appearance of the Patran riders (though admittedly he isn't described or say much).
So...am I totally off base with all of this?
(The tin-foil-hat wearing/drama-loving part of me is going: THE REGENT MADE A DEAL WITH MAKEDON'S ARMY AGAINST LAURENT, AND THEN DAMEN WILL HAVE TO RIDE IN SINGLE-HANDED AND REVEAL HIMSELF AS THE TRUE AKIELON PRINCE TO STOP THEM, but of course that is ridiculous, lol.)