Whither the Blue Wave?
As recently as a few days ago all the public opinion polls were pointing to a "Blue Wave", a resounding victory for Democrats. Presidential candidate Joe Biden was favored by 9-10 points nationally. His lead was smaller in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, swing states that Trump captured in 2016, but still enough to be beyond the margin of error of 3-5 points. He was even picking up enough support in traditional Republican strongholds such as Texas and Iowa that he seemed close to neck-and-neck with Trump. The Blue Wave extended to other races, too. It was expected that Democrats would pick up seats in the House, they had greater than 50% odds of reaching a majority in the Senate, and countless down-ballot races in state in local government seemed to be tilting Democrat, too.
For everyone who heard about the Blue Wave and believed it was true, election day was a huge "WTF?" wakeup call. Biden's winning the popular vote, though only by 2.5 points, not the landslide 9 points, 10 points, or more that was forecast a few days ago. With the way the Republican party has realigned around the distortion of the Electoral College this 2.5 lead in the popular vote means it's still a neck-and-neck race to the majority of 270 out of 538 votes in the E.C.
The rest of the Blue Wave has washed out, too. Republicans are actually gaining seats in the House. It's not enough to reach a majority, but enough to make it tougher on Democrats. And Republicans will almost certainly hold their majority in the Senate. With Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's I-Have-The-Power brand of politics, expect the Senate to block virtually everything Biden attempts to do as president if he does win. A Biden presidency will be crippled from Day One.
Likewise, state and local races where Democrats were expected as of a few days ago to score big gains have seen few seats actually change hands. This is important not just for all the laws passed at the state and local level- which are most of the laws Americans encounter on a daily basis- but also for redistricting for the all-important Electoral College. Districts are reassigned every 10 years based on new figures from the US Census. In most states these decisions are made by the ruling political party. In 2010 Republicans made a concerted effort to win otherwise low-profile offices at the state level and then engaged in obscene gerrymandering of the political maps for 2012-2020. It's through this chicanery that states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan have Republican-majority state legislatures even though a majority of the voters picked Democrats.
So... what happened? How did a lead of 9 or 10 points turn into 3? Was it the cumulative effect of all the disenfranchisement Trump and his supporters in government and the conservative media perpetrated? Was it Trump's last minute pitch to his own supporters? Or were the polls just wrong... and badly so? Or maybe the narrative of the "shy Trump voter"- a person who's reluctant to admit to poll-takers they support the constant lying, self-dealing, obvious racism and utterly bungled management of a public health crisis that's killed over 230,000 Americans in just the past 9 months- is accurate.
For everyone who heard about the Blue Wave and believed it was true, election day was a huge "WTF?" wakeup call. Biden's winning the popular vote, though only by 2.5 points, not the landslide 9 points, 10 points, or more that was forecast a few days ago. With the way the Republican party has realigned around the distortion of the Electoral College this 2.5 lead in the popular vote means it's still a neck-and-neck race to the majority of 270 out of 538 votes in the E.C.
The rest of the Blue Wave has washed out, too. Republicans are actually gaining seats in the House. It's not enough to reach a majority, but enough to make it tougher on Democrats. And Republicans will almost certainly hold their majority in the Senate. With Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's I-Have-The-Power brand of politics, expect the Senate to block virtually everything Biden attempts to do as president if he does win. A Biden presidency will be crippled from Day One.
Likewise, state and local races where Democrats were expected as of a few days ago to score big gains have seen few seats actually change hands. This is important not just for all the laws passed at the state and local level- which are most of the laws Americans encounter on a daily basis- but also for redistricting for the all-important Electoral College. Districts are reassigned every 10 years based on new figures from the US Census. In most states these decisions are made by the ruling political party. In 2010 Republicans made a concerted effort to win otherwise low-profile offices at the state level and then engaged in obscene gerrymandering of the political maps for 2012-2020. It's through this chicanery that states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan have Republican-majority state legislatures even though a majority of the voters picked Democrats.
So... what happened? How did a lead of 9 or 10 points turn into 3? Was it the cumulative effect of all the disenfranchisement Trump and his supporters in government and the conservative media perpetrated? Was it Trump's last minute pitch to his own supporters? Or were the polls just wrong... and badly so? Or maybe the narrative of the "shy Trump voter"- a person who's reluctant to admit to poll-takers they support the constant lying, self-dealing, obvious racism and utterly bungled management of a public health crisis that's killed over 230,000 Americans in just the past 9 months- is accurate.