Lockdown Day 21: Will There Be A Rush When This Is All Over?
As I prepare to start the fourth week of lockdown I wonder what it will be like when it's all over. What will happen when the stay-home orders lift and people are ready to get back to normal? Will there be a rush to do things we've been denied? Will there be long term shifts such that some things that used to be normal won't ever be the same again?
Whew, that's a lot to ponder. I'll narrow it down to two things. 1) Will people rush back out to restaurants, causing crowds and long waits? And 2) will people rush to travel, causing high prices and crowded conditions?
For both of these questions, as with many others, it's tempting to say, "Hell, yeah!" It's natural to expect that after people have been denying themselves certain pleasures and entertainment they'll rush to indulge once the gates are open again. But there's a second-order analysis for each of these questions that argues, "Well, maybe not so much...."
On the topic of dining out I say "Maybe not so much" because I know a variety of people who are finding more satisfaction cooking at home than they anticipated. I'm one of them! I've been an eat-out-most-of-the-time person since college and figured that's simply a predilection I couldn't change. As I've been forced to change these past 3 weeks I worried I'd go stir crazy... but I haven't. I can now see ratcheting back on my meals out in favor of cooking at home more often. Oh, sure, once it's basically safe to go out in public once again I'll enjoy all my favorite restaurants from time to time; I just don't think I'll resume eating out ~12 meals a week.
As for travel, the second order analysis that says "Maybe not so much..." is the economic question. What if this temporary halt to many parts of the economy turns into a recession, and what if the acute spike of job losses doesn't recover right away? Sure, those of us fortunate enough to come out of the lockdown with discretionary budget intact will be raring to travel, but it may turn out that a lot of people don't. That really depends on how long this lasts and how quickly or slowly the aftereffects lift.
Whew, that's a lot to ponder. I'll narrow it down to two things. 1) Will people rush back out to restaurants, causing crowds and long waits? And 2) will people rush to travel, causing high prices and crowded conditions?
For both of these questions, as with many others, it's tempting to say, "Hell, yeah!" It's natural to expect that after people have been denying themselves certain pleasures and entertainment they'll rush to indulge once the gates are open again. But there's a second-order analysis for each of these questions that argues, "Well, maybe not so much...."
On the topic of dining out I say "Maybe not so much" because I know a variety of people who are finding more satisfaction cooking at home than they anticipated. I'm one of them! I've been an eat-out-most-of-the-time person since college and figured that's simply a predilection I couldn't change. As I've been forced to change these past 3 weeks I worried I'd go stir crazy... but I haven't. I can now see ratcheting back on my meals out in favor of cooking at home more often. Oh, sure, once it's basically safe to go out in public once again I'll enjoy all my favorite restaurants from time to time; I just don't think I'll resume eating out ~12 meals a week.
As for travel, the second order analysis that says "Maybe not so much..." is the economic question. What if this temporary halt to many parts of the economy turns into a recession, and what if the acute spike of job losses doesn't recover right away? Sure, those of us fortunate enough to come out of the lockdown with discretionary budget intact will be raring to travel, but it may turn out that a lot of people don't. That really depends on how long this lasts and how quickly or slowly the aftereffects lift.