Italy's Health System Overwhelmed?

[canyonwalker]

I've mentioned in a few recent blogs that it's been hard to find details about the lockdown policy announced in Italy. There are few details in traditional media. Instead I've browsed social media channels, particularly for first-hand accounts from people living in Italy. Details on the policy were vague there, too, for the first few days,

Comments

[some_other_dave]

Another possible mechanism for the first-hand accounts not painting a good picture of the true situation is ... well, people. We are pretty lousy observers and often draw pretty lousy conclusions from our observations, particularly of stressful situations we are actually in.

[canyonwalker]

I'm careful not to read too much into a single anecdote. Even once I choose to treat it as true, a statement like "I went to the hospital and people were being turned away!" does not mean that all hospitals, in all locations, at all times are overcrowded. It's possible there was a temporary crush when that person went. Or that they misunderstood what was happening. For example, maybe people without acute symptoms were turned away from the emergency room (to keep it available for people who truly need it) when there was a separate location to go if you just want to be tested. When many accounts of the same situation align, though, from different people experiencing them in different places and/or at different times, then you start to build confidence that you're seeing a comprehensive picture rather than isolated incidents.