Coronavirus
Concern about Coronavirus has been sweeping the world the past few weeks. The virus has, too, of course, though arguably not as fast as worry about it has. That's often how these things go. Technically called Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), it originated in Wuhan, China, with the first human case documented in December. As of today, six weeks later, there are over 8,200 diagnosed cases. Most of them are in mainland China but the disease has spread to countries in Asia, North America, and Europe.
Note the lack of a space in "Coronavirus". The related Corona Virus is also spreading:
Haha, seriously....
Coronavirus (no space) symptoms include coughing, fever, and shortness of breath. In severe cases pneumonia or kidney failure can develop. There is currently no specific cure for Novel coronavirus... but it seems like it's reasonably well treated with modern, first-world medicine.
The category of coronaviruses includes SARS and MERS. Remember those boogeymen from the 00s and early 10s, when they caused outbreaks and attendant worldwide panics? I don't diminish the threat of any of these three strains, but again, it seems like we can work through it by taking seriously the need bring medical care to sick people.
UPDATE: It's more dangerous than it initially seemed. Political leaders in multiple countries (including the US!) spent weeks misrepresenting the impact to save face. As true numbers emerge we are seeing a mortality rate 10x, 50x, or even higher compared to influenza. This is true even in developed countries with well-regarded health care systems.Naught to Worry?
My potential for worry is also tempered by a statistic I read about recently. I hadn't seen this bit of epidemiology in lay literature before.... Honestly I didn't even read about it American journalism; I found it when I clicked through an Australian news article that appeared in my newsfeed and then subsequently read more on it.
An important static in studying the spread of a virus is the Basic Reproduction Number, abbreviated R0 (R-naught). It measures how many people a newly infected person is likely to pass the virus to. The higher the number, the faster and wider the disease spreads. This early in the study of nCov-2019 there are differing estimates, but almost all are in the range of 2-4. Compare that to smallpox, with an R0 ranging 5-7, and one of the most transmissible infectious diseases known, measles, with a range of 12-18.
The comparative R0 values make me less woried about nCov-2019... and more worried about what could happen with measles if jackasses keep spreading lies about the vaccine.
Note the lack of a space in "Coronavirus". The related Corona Virus is also spreading:
Haha, seriously....
Coronavirus (no space) symptoms include coughing, fever, and shortness of breath. In severe cases pneumonia or kidney failure can develop. There is currently no specific cure for Novel coronavirus... but it seems like it's reasonably well treated with modern, first-world medicine.
The category of coronaviruses includes SARS and MERS. Remember those boogeymen from the 00s and early 10s, when they caused outbreaks and attendant worldwide panics? I don't diminish the threat of any of these three strains, but again, it seems like we can work through it by taking seriously the need bring medical care to sick people.
UPDATE: It's more dangerous than it initially seemed. Political leaders in multiple countries (including the US!) spent weeks misrepresenting the impact to save face. As true numbers emerge we are seeing a mortality rate 10x, 50x, or even higher compared to influenza. This is true even in developed countries with well-regarded health care systems.Naught to Worry?
My potential for worry is also tempered by a statistic I read about recently. I hadn't seen this bit of epidemiology in lay literature before.... Honestly I didn't even read about it American journalism; I found it when I clicked through an Australian news article that appeared in my newsfeed and then subsequently read more on it.
An important static in studying the spread of a virus is the Basic Reproduction Number, abbreviated R0 (R-naught). It measures how many people a newly infected person is likely to pass the virus to. The higher the number, the faster and wider the disease spreads. This early in the study of nCov-2019 there are differing estimates, but almost all are in the range of 2-4. Compare that to smallpox, with an R0 ranging 5-7, and one of the most transmissible infectious diseases known, measles, with a range of 12-18.
The comparative R0 values make me less woried about nCov-2019... and more worried about what could happen with measles if jackasses keep spreading lies about the vaccine.