Who Voted for Trump? Demographics.
It's insightful to look at how votes in last week's presidential election break down by race, sex, etc.
By Race/Ethnicity
White voters broke for Trump over Clinton, 58 to 37, according to exit polls*.
Black voters picked Clinton over Trump, 88 to 8.
Hispanic voters picked Clinton over Trump, 65 to 29*.
Asian voters also picked Clinton over Trump, 65 to 29*.
It's remarkable that for as much as Trump demonized Hispanic immigrants and the country of Mexico in his campaign, 29% of Hispanic citizens who voted still picked him over Clinton. Moreover, Trump's 29 point share is an increase of 8 points from Romney's 2012 share. Trump's 8% poll amongst Black voters seems like a resounding rebuke but it's actually an increase of 7 points from Romney's 2012 exit polls. Very surprising for a campaign and a candidate widely regarded at racist. Kinda makes you wonder if there's more to it than that....
By Gender
Men picked Trump 53-41 over Clinton.
Women picked Clinton 54-42 over Trump.
The fact that there's a gender split is not surprising. For several year's it's been true that Democract candidates do better among women and Republican candidates do better among men. Clinton's share of women, though, is only a 1 point increase from Obama's share in 2012. That argues there was no "Break the Glass Ceiling" surge among women to help Clinton.
By Race and Gender
White men picked Trump over Clinton, 63-31.
White women also picked Trump over Clinton, 53-43.
Black men picked Clinton over Trump, 80-13.
Black women also picked Clinton over Trump, 94-4.
It's interesting that Trump won amongst White women. This argues that not only was there no "Break the Glass Ceiling" surge as I noted above, but also that Trump's repeated crude treatment of women, both historically and during the campaign, was not a major turnoff to women.
Also, for everyone who considers Trump a lying, vicious, ill-informed demagogue who fooled a lot of people, you've got to give props to Black women. At 94-4 against, they're the smartest people in the room.
*Exit Poll Sources
I held off on writing about this for a few days as I was hoping to see better data emerge over time. It turns out, though, that there's only one major exit poll. Big media organizations cooperate in the National Election Pool, which is conducted by Edison Research. Though you may read articles published by different media outlets the data largely come from the same one source. The stats I presented above I found in The New York Times Nov. 8 article Election 2016: Exit Polls and CNN Nov. 9 article Exit Polls.
It's worth emphasizing that these figures come from an exit poll. It's not an actual vote tally. Ballots are not stamped with each voter's race, ethnicity, gender, religion, income, etc.- and for good reason! So the best we can get is an opinion poll that asks people how they voted.
All opinion polls are subject to certain challenges. Chief among these are that 1) people might not answer accurately, and 2) the poll might yield a misrepresentative sample of smaller groups. #2 is especially a concern in assessing the opinions of minority groups who are, first of all, small percentages of the population (minority, duh) and secondly, often very geographically clustered. NBC News published an article Nov. 11 about this, Analysis: How Exit Polling Missed the Mark on Asian Americans. They point to polling by Latino Decisions and Asian American Decisions indicating these populations picked Clinton over Trump by greater margins than reported by Edison Research. Briefly put, they give Clinton a 79-18 share among Latino voters and and 75-19 share among Asian voters.
By Race/Ethnicity
White voters broke for Trump over Clinton, 58 to 37, according to exit polls*.
Black voters picked Clinton over Trump, 88 to 8.
Hispanic voters picked Clinton over Trump, 65 to 29*.
Asian voters also picked Clinton over Trump, 65 to 29*.
It's remarkable that for as much as Trump demonized Hispanic immigrants and the country of Mexico in his campaign, 29% of Hispanic citizens who voted still picked him over Clinton. Moreover, Trump's 29 point share is an increase of 8 points from Romney's 2012 share. Trump's 8% poll amongst Black voters seems like a resounding rebuke but it's actually an increase of 7 points from Romney's 2012 exit polls. Very surprising for a campaign and a candidate widely regarded at racist. Kinda makes you wonder if there's more to it than that....
By Gender
Men picked Trump 53-41 over Clinton.
Women picked Clinton 54-42 over Trump.
The fact that there's a gender split is not surprising. For several year's it's been true that Democract candidates do better among women and Republican candidates do better among men. Clinton's share of women, though, is only a 1 point increase from Obama's share in 2012. That argues there was no "Break the Glass Ceiling" surge among women to help Clinton.
By Race and Gender
White men picked Trump over Clinton, 63-31.
White women also picked Trump over Clinton, 53-43.
Black men picked Clinton over Trump, 80-13.
Black women also picked Clinton over Trump, 94-4.
It's interesting that Trump won amongst White women. This argues that not only was there no "Break the Glass Ceiling" surge as I noted above, but also that Trump's repeated crude treatment of women, both historically and during the campaign, was not a major turnoff to women.
Also, for everyone who considers Trump a lying, vicious, ill-informed demagogue who fooled a lot of people, you've got to give props to Black women. At 94-4 against, they're the smartest people in the room.
*Exit Poll Sources
I held off on writing about this for a few days as I was hoping to see better data emerge over time. It turns out, though, that there's only one major exit poll. Big media organizations cooperate in the National Election Pool, which is conducted by Edison Research. Though you may read articles published by different media outlets the data largely come from the same one source. The stats I presented above I found in The New York Times Nov. 8 article Election 2016: Exit Polls and CNN Nov. 9 article Exit Polls.
It's worth emphasizing that these figures come from an exit poll. It's not an actual vote tally. Ballots are not stamped with each voter's race, ethnicity, gender, religion, income, etc.- and for good reason! So the best we can get is an opinion poll that asks people how they voted.
All opinion polls are subject to certain challenges. Chief among these are that 1) people might not answer accurately, and 2) the poll might yield a misrepresentative sample of smaller groups. #2 is especially a concern in assessing the opinions of minority groups who are, first of all, small percentages of the population (minority, duh) and secondly, often very geographically clustered. NBC News published an article Nov. 11 about this, Analysis: How Exit Polling Missed the Mark on Asian Americans. They point to polling by Latino Decisions and Asian American Decisions indicating these populations picked Clinton over Trump by greater margins than reported by Edison Research. Briefly put, they give Clinton a 79-18 share among Latino voters and and 75-19 share among Asian voters.