Covid Case Rates Flattening Out; Still Almost 3x Last Summer
It's Tier Tuesday, as California's health department used to call it when it updated risk charts weekly on Tuesday. I like the cadence of checking stats once a week. It keeps me abreast of what's going on without it becoming an "Every day is Coronavirus news day" doomscrolling situation. Sharp-eyed readers will note I didn't post on Coronavirus last week. Rest assured that I did read and digest the news; I just didn't have time to write about it.
It's just as well I've gone 2 weeks now since writing about Coronavirus stats because the lead headline this week is that they're leveling off. This chart from The New York Times "Covid in the U.S." page shows case rates over the past 90 days:
At the peak of the Omicron surge 2 months cases averaged over 800,000 per day. The average has dropped markedly to just under 30,000 recently. But as you can see from the shape of the chart, the rate of improvement is leveling off. Today's average of 29,288 is only slightly better than March 15th's 32,133, which in turn is only slightly better than March 8th's 39,740. (Visit the NYT link above for an interactive chart where you can pinpoint these daily numbers.)
Flattening Out... 3x Higher
The fact that improvements are tapering off is not the only reason to temper celebrations of the declining Covid case rate. The fact is we're leveling off at a level that's still almost 3x last summer's low.
As I've noted before, the low last summer was just over 11,000 cases per day (average), on June 21. As great as it is that today we're 96% of the way down from the peak 2 months ago, today's rate is still over 3x last summer's low. That was before the Delta surge that preceded the Omicron surge.
3x the Cases, 4x the Deaths
So, the case rate is leveling off at 3x last summer's lull... is that the only dark cloud in the partly-sunny news? No. The death rate remains elevated, too.
The recent average of just over 1,000 deaths per day is still more than 4x the pre-Delta, pre-Omicron low of 228 last summer.
Discussing high and lows relative to strains is pertinent because each one brings new challenges. Delta was more contagious than Alpha and hit people harder. Omicron was much more contagious than even Delta but caused lighter symptoms. You can see that reflected in the charts, BTW.... The case rate surge for Omicron is way higher than Delta's, while the death rate surge is only somewhat higher. Still, it's higher. The "mild" Omicron strain killed more Americans than Delta.
A new surge may kick in soon. Many articles in the past week or two have talked about the BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron. It's thought to be even more contagious than Omicron. And even if BA.2 fizzles it's only a matter of time until the next variant emerges. With 30% of the US population refusing to get vaccinated there are 100,000,000 human petri dishes for the next strain to develop in. And that strain may make Omicron look like the J.V. team.
It's just as well I've gone 2 weeks now since writing about Coronavirus stats because the lead headline this week is that they're leveling off. This chart from The New York Times "Covid in the U.S." page shows case rates over the past 90 days:
At the peak of the Omicron surge 2 months cases averaged over 800,000 per day. The average has dropped markedly to just under 30,000 recently. But as you can see from the shape of the chart, the rate of improvement is leveling off. Today's average of 29,288 is only slightly better than March 15th's 32,133, which in turn is only slightly better than March 8th's 39,740. (Visit the NYT link above for an interactive chart where you can pinpoint these daily numbers.)
Flattening Out... 3x Higher
The fact that improvements are tapering off is not the only reason to temper celebrations of the declining Covid case rate. The fact is we're leveling off at a level that's still almost 3x last summer's low.
As I've noted before, the low last summer was just over 11,000 cases per day (average), on June 21. As great as it is that today we're 96% of the way down from the peak 2 months ago, today's rate is still over 3x last summer's low. That was before the Delta surge that preceded the Omicron surge.
3x the Cases, 4x the Deaths
So, the case rate is leveling off at 3x last summer's lull... is that the only dark cloud in the partly-sunny news? No. The death rate remains elevated, too.
The recent average of just over 1,000 deaths per day is still more than 4x the pre-Delta, pre-Omicron low of 228 last summer.
Discussing high and lows relative to strains is pertinent because each one brings new challenges. Delta was more contagious than Alpha and hit people harder. Omicron was much more contagious than even Delta but caused lighter symptoms. You can see that reflected in the charts, BTW.... The case rate surge for Omicron is way higher than Delta's, while the death rate surge is only somewhat higher. Still, it's higher. The "mild" Omicron strain killed more Americans than Delta.
A new surge may kick in soon. Many articles in the past week or two have talked about the BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron. It's thought to be even more contagious than Omicron. And even if BA.2 fizzles it's only a matter of time until the next variant emerges. With 30% of the US population refusing to get vaccinated there are 100,000,000 human petri dishes for the next strain to develop in. And that strain may make Omicron look like the J.V. team.