Rates Still Dropping. Time for a Superspreader Event?
It's Tier Tuesday so time to check the latest stats on Covid-19 spread. This week the numbers take on extra significance as I'm headed to Las Vegas for 2½ days of meetings in rooms with 200 colleagues in a crowded casino-hotel where masks are no longer required and vaccines have never been required. Wow, that has all the hallmarks of a superspreader event. So let's check what the risks are.
The good news is Covid-19 case rates continue their drop from the Omicron/winter holidays surge. The 7-day average new case is down a third from a week ago, 43,250 vs. 64,294 (source: New York Times Coronavirus in the U.S., retrieved 8 Mar 2022). That's a tiny fraction of the rate seen at the peak in mid-January, when some days saw more than 1 million new cases reported.
On a normalized basis the US rate is down to 13 cases per 100,000 population over the past week. That's a level not seen in months. Specifically, not since July, when we were ramping into the Delta surge.
Locally, Santa Clara County, California, has a normalized rate of 11, lower than the national average. And Clark County, Nevada, surrounding Las Vegas, is even lower than that, at 9.8. (I imagine, though, that an area with a huge tourist population has many more cases than reported as many people who are actually sick & spreading disease leave before getting tested.)
So, the good news is that things are better than they have been in 6 months. The not-so-good news? These rates are still 3-4x higher than in June 2021, the time when the president was talking about July 4 being Freedom From Covid Day. Were there business trips in June 2021? Heck, no! Every major employer consider it too dangerous. The small employer I work for did, too.
So, is this a go or a no-go? I weighed the risks of this trip in January. Rates were high at the time, but I figured they'd drop. I knew I could cancel and attend remotely if they didn't. Well, the rates have definitely dropped, but unfortunately so, too, have masking requirements. I've heard from colleagues that Vegas is basically packed now with all the Covid-deniers who refused to go back when the city was requiring masks in casinos. (How is it known they're Covid-deniers? Mostly because they're such staunch deniers that they enjoy telling everyone every few minutes!)
Still, as I noted in January, there's immense pressure to attend in person. Oh, the company allows people to attend remotely, and managers say we won't be judged either way on our decision, but the fact remains that attending remotely vs. attending in person are not at all equal. People who are there will get way more out of it, particularly in the all-important area of relationship building. So I'm packing my masks and taking my chances as I board a flight to Vegas later today.
The good news is Covid-19 case rates continue their drop from the Omicron/winter holidays surge. The 7-day average new case is down a third from a week ago, 43,250 vs. 64,294 (source: New York Times Coronavirus in the U.S., retrieved 8 Mar 2022). That's a tiny fraction of the rate seen at the peak in mid-January, when some days saw more than 1 million new cases reported.
On a normalized basis the US rate is down to 13 cases per 100,000 population over the past week. That's a level not seen in months. Specifically, not since July, when we were ramping into the Delta surge.
Locally, Santa Clara County, California, has a normalized rate of 11, lower than the national average. And Clark County, Nevada, surrounding Las Vegas, is even lower than that, at 9.8. (I imagine, though, that an area with a huge tourist population has many more cases than reported as many people who are actually sick & spreading disease leave before getting tested.)
So, the good news is that things are better than they have been in 6 months. The not-so-good news? These rates are still 3-4x higher than in June 2021, the time when the president was talking about July 4 being Freedom From Covid Day. Were there business trips in June 2021? Heck, no! Every major employer consider it too dangerous. The small employer I work for did, too.
So, is this a go or a no-go? I weighed the risks of this trip in January. Rates were high at the time, but I figured they'd drop. I knew I could cancel and attend remotely if they didn't. Well, the rates have definitely dropped, but unfortunately so, too, have masking requirements. I've heard from colleagues that Vegas is basically packed now with all the Covid-deniers who refused to go back when the city was requiring masks in casinos. (How is it known they're Covid-deniers? Mostly because they're such staunch deniers that they enjoy telling everyone every few minutes!)
Still, as I noted in January, there's immense pressure to attend in person. Oh, the company allows people to attend remotely, and managers say we won't be judged either way on our decision, but the fact remains that attending remotely vs. attending in person are not at all equal. People who are there will get way more out of it, particularly in the all-important area of relationship building. So I'm packing my masks and taking my chances as I board a flight to Vegas later today.