A new political party in Quebec! Will it make a difference?
So... in a recent post, suitablyemoname mentioned the apparent ascendancy of former Péquiste François Légault's "Coalition Avenir Québec", which has somehow gained enough support to be a significant force in Quebec politics - possibly winning a minority or even majority government in the next Quebec election, if their numbers hold
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Pauline Marois' career ends before the ballots are even counted. The knives will come out in the dying days of the campaign as incumbents try to save their own seats by distancing themselves from a leader who clearly will not survive the election. (She needs to win--and she probably needs a majority--if she is to remain in office after the next election. If she doesn't manage it, we all know she's toast.)
Jean Charest retires. He's led the Liberals for nearly 15 years now, and losing an election will create an obvious point at which he exits stage left. (Or perhaps stage centre-right?) His popularity with his own party is very much couched in his ability to win elections for them, and when he stops doing that, the popularity will cut off as well. Get going while the going's good.
The CAQ pulls an ADQ and fails to coalesce quickly enough to get anything done. Rookie MNAs and confusing priorities conspire to prevent the party from getting anything done. The government disintegrates within months.
Then what?
There is no obvious successor to Mme. Marois, especially now that the PQ and BQ are increasingly reduced to a smaller (and, to be blunt, dying) contingent of hard separatists for virtually all of their popular support. Nor is there an obvious successor for M. Charest, especially considering the unique position M. Charest occupied vis-a-vis the federal Conservatives. If the CAQ collapses into rubble [or at least into a rump caucus], this would have the effect of creating a massive power vacuum in Quebec politics where almost anything could happen. All bets are off.
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