(no subject)
Something weird is happening in Ontario. We have a provincial election on the 6th of October, and the common wisdom was that Tim Hudak of the Progressive Conservatives would effectively waltz his way to a majority, ending 8 years of Liberal governance. By virtually all estimates, he could expect to win by 10% or more: the polls showed that kind of lead, and the talking heads all pronounced that Dalton McGuinty of the Liberals had overstayed his welcome.
Oops.
There haven't been any controversies. There haven't been any mis-steps or serious errors in judgment. The parties have each made all the right noises. Nobody's campaign team has walked out en masse, and nobody's campaign is set to win any awards for enthusiasm or empathy.
Despite that, the numbers have shifted radically to a point where the Liberals are now expected to form a government. (In fact, according to threehundredeight.com, a government just 2 seats shy of an outright majority.)
And nobody knows how it happened.
There are some theories:
- Toronto voters, increasingly feeling buyer's remorse about conservative mayor Rob Ford, have returned to the Liberal fold after flirting with the Conservatives federally. (This theory may have some basis in reality: Hudak is completely locked out of the City of Toronto itself, and appears to be declining in its suburbs.)
- Province-wide, voters have accepted Dalton McGuinty's appeal to stability and continuance in government during a rough period, leading to a steady but quiet increase in his share of the vote.
- The NDP, having increased their vote share by almost 10% since the last election, have shaken things up to a point where Conservative voters are fleeing to the Liberals to block a second orange crush. (Ontario does, after all, have a history of "Surprise, we won!" NDP government.)
The bottom line, though, is that even as the polls swing wildly and unpredictably (although in concert with one another), there's no excitement or buzz about this election at all. Nobody cares.
What gives?
Oops.
There haven't been any controversies. There haven't been any mis-steps or serious errors in judgment. The parties have each made all the right noises. Nobody's campaign team has walked out en masse, and nobody's campaign is set to win any awards for enthusiasm or empathy.
Despite that, the numbers have shifted radically to a point where the Liberals are now expected to form a government. (In fact, according to threehundredeight.com, a government just 2 seats shy of an outright majority.)
And nobody knows how it happened.
There are some theories:
- Toronto voters, increasingly feeling buyer's remorse about conservative mayor Rob Ford, have returned to the Liberal fold after flirting with the Conservatives federally. (This theory may have some basis in reality: Hudak is completely locked out of the City of Toronto itself, and appears to be declining in its suburbs.)
- Province-wide, voters have accepted Dalton McGuinty's appeal to stability and continuance in government during a rough period, leading to a steady but quiet increase in his share of the vote.
- The NDP, having increased their vote share by almost 10% since the last election, have shaken things up to a point where Conservative voters are fleeing to the Liberals to block a second orange crush. (Ontario does, after all, have a history of "Surprise, we won!" NDP government.)
The bottom line, though, is that even as the polls swing wildly and unpredictably (although in concert with one another), there's no excitement or buzz about this election at all. Nobody cares.
What gives?