Swing Riding Impact

[canticle]

In 2006, the makeup of Parliament was determined by 15,000 votes in 12 ridings. That was the difference between a Liberal or Conservative Minority. .001% of voters decided the fate of the Government

Comments

[warrioreowyn]

I lived in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (BC) until several months ago, and I doubt it's a swing rinding. Keith Martin (Liberal, current incumbent) is a very strong candidate and someone people tend to like regardless of party affiliation - I've been NDP ever since I could vote and would have a hard time not voting for him if I still lived there.

Vancouver Quadra, where I currently live and which is also listed as a swing riding, was won by the Liberals with nearly 50% of the vote.

If these are the kinds of ridings the Libs are struggling in, I would say they are in trouble.

[canticle]

Um...the margin Keith Martin won by was miniscule at 3.6%. And Liberal party affiliation does count in elections for at least a base of 10% of most voters who go with a candidate, he falls within the margin of error on possible loss/gain.

In fact, he lost ground from the previous election, where his margin of victory was a whopping 4%.

And prior to Keith Martin, the riding was Canadian Alliance by a whopping 20%, and before that Reform by 20%, and before that (when it was formed as a riding), it went NDP by 35%. It is by every definition a Swing Riding.

And WOW, are you EVER off on Vancouver Quadra.

The last election was the 2008 Byelection, which the Liberal won by a whopping 151 votes. It was a .53% percent win.

Stephen Owen was the MP for the riding for a very long time, but his resignation has left it completely wide open. The riding was solidly Stephen Owen, not Liberal.

[warrioreowyn]

Okay, just moved to Van-Quadra and checked the previous election results; it looked solidly Lib from that. Thanks for the tip on the byelection.

And Martin may be reducing his margins, but he's stayed on in the region for a long time for the simple reason that people like him; he's a good guy as politicians go. In terms of parties it may be a swing riding; I am not saying that it is solidly Liberal, but that it is solidly pro-Keith. If he could hold on after the sponsorship scandal, when the Liberal name was mud, he can hold on in spite of Dion being "not a leader" - people are voting for him, not Dion.

[ms_interpret]

I live in that riding now, and I have to agree with you. People LOVE that guy. I've met him once or twice and can see the charm, but his assistant, who I deal with more often? GAH! It's enough to put me off the guy right there.

Now, the only problem I can see, is people here are PISSED RIGHT OFF about Campbell cancelling the fall session of the legislature, and *may* take it out on the federal Liberals. You know how that goes. Anyone smarter than a bag of squirrel droppings should realize that Campbell is clearly a Conservative with the Liberal name, and take it out on them instead.

[warrioreowyn]

The Provincial Liberals are a whole different breed than the federal Liberals. I can't see it having an effect.

[ms_interpret]

I know that and you know that, but how many people don't?