Swing Riding Impact

[canticle]

In 2006, the makeup of Parliament was determined by 15,000 votes in 12 ridings. That was the difference between a Liberal or Conservative Minority. .001% of voters decided the fate of the Government

Comments

[suitablyemoname]

Because of the massive realignment happening in Quebec, I'm not sure how well this model can be applied to the upcoming election. Conceivably 30 or more Quebec ridings could not only change hands, but in many cases the party who finished in third (the Conservatives) will leapfrog into first--and by a comfortable margin.

Additionally, this election has a few interesting ridings outside of the Ontario-BC-Quebec flyby. Look at places like Edmonton--Strathcona, where the NDP is trying very hard to get rid of Raheem Jaffer, or Newfoundland, where Danny Williams is working very hard to make sure he isn't on Harper's christmas card list.

[warrioreowyn]

Really? What's Danny up to?

[suitablyemoname]

Trying to kick the federal Tories out of Newfoundland. He's scared Loyola Hearn so much he's retiring, and the Conservatives are set to lose all three of their seats if the polls bear out.

[canticle]

Well, regarding Quebec, the problem is the Bloc protest vote isn't realigning to the Conservatives or Liberals, but the NDP, but the former Liberal support is moving Conservative...realistically, with the way the votes break down, I honestly don't see a lot of change. I think the Bloc will still break through in a lot of ridings with the vote split being more Con and NDP than Con and Lib. But we'll see, it's still early on.

The NDP can try to get rid of Raheem, but unfortunately I don't think they'll be successful. This province is so Conservative to a fault that people willfully ignore the most egrerious moral lapses by their politicians. This Province is as close to the United States in irrational Party Loyalty as one can find in Canada.

[suitablyemoname]

Well, regarding Quebec, the problem is the Bloc protest vote isn't realigning to the Conservatives or Liberals, but the NDP, but the former Liberal support is moving Conservative...realistically, with the way the votes break down, I honestly don't see a lot of change. I think the Bloc will still break through in a lot of ridings with the vote split being more Con and NDP than Con and Lib. But we'll see, it's still early on."Break through"? The Bloc have been steadily losing ground to the Conservatives in much the same fashion that the PQ have been steadily losing ground to the ADQ. The Pequistes and the BQ are joined at the hip in more ways than either party should find comfortable at the moment

[suitablyemoname]

Make that 25% for the Liberals in Quebec. It's still an improvement.

[allhatnocattle]

I saw something on the news; that much of Quebec's Conservative support comes from Nationalists who came away from voting Bloc through appreciation of the Tory recognition of Quebec, as a nation within a nation.